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UPDATE ON THE TRANSFORMATION AGENDA

Presentation at the 18 th Nigerian Economic Summit By DR. SHAMSUDDEEN USMAN, CON HON. MINISTER/DEPUTY CHAIRMAN National Planning Commission The Presidency Monday, December 3, 2011. UPDATE ON THE TRANSFORMATION AGENDA. Outline. 1.0 Introduction

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UPDATE ON THE TRANSFORMATION AGENDA

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  1. Presentation at the 18th Nigerian Economic Summit By DR. SHAMSUDDEEN USMAN, CON HON. MINISTER/DEPUTY CHAIRMAN National Planning Commission The Presidency Monday, December 3, 2011 UPDATE ON THE TRANSFORMATION AGENDA

  2. Outline 1.0 Introduction 2.0 Government’s Transformation Agenda (TA): - The Goals and Objectives - Key Focal Areas 3.0 The Journey So Far 4.0 Monitoring the Transformation Agenda 5.0 Nigeria’s Economic Prospects 6.0 What Role For the Private Sector?

  3. 1.0 Introduction • 18th Nigerian Economic Summit as clear demonstration of successful PPP • Theme of NES18 : • Builds on Nigeria’s deregulation of the telecoms, banking, aviation and other sectors • Focuses on the remaining critical sectors, such as Agriculture, Power, and Oil & Gas • Consistent with the aspirations of the Transformation Agenda and NV20:2020 • Continues dialogue on governance and Nigeria’s future prospects

  4. 1.1 Strategic Planning Framework in Nigeria • Transformation Agenda as foundation for repositioning Nigeria towards achieving the NV20:2020’s goal • NV20:2020 being implemented using medium term plans • 1st NIP, MDGs, Transformation Agenda 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2020 MDGs NV20:2020 Mr. President’s Transformation Agenda 1st NIP Annual Budget Cycle

  5. 2.0 Government’s Transformation Agenda (TA) • TA is current Administration’s medium term development strategy -To speed up Nigeria’s achievement of NV20:2020 -Road map of key policies, programmes and projects of the Federal Government to be implemented, 2011- 2015. • TA guiding annual budget process of FGN -Incorporates key reform initiatives and programmes • Key Objectives of TA: -Job creation to address problem of unemployment and poverty -Laying a solid foundation for robust, broad-based and inclusive growth -Improving the well-being of all Nigerians

  6. 2.1 Goals of Transformation Agenda

  7. 2.2 Key Focal Areas of Transformation Agenda • Government will focus on the following key areas: • OUTCOMES • JOBS, JOBS, JOBS • POVERTY • ALLEVIATION • BETTER • RESOURCE • MANAGEMENT • ELIMINATION OF • CORRUPTION • SUSTAINED • ECONOMIC • DEVELOPMENT

  8. 3.0 The Journey So Far • Significant progress made in implementation of reform based initiatives in TA: • Infrastructure • Human Capital Development • Good Governance

  9. 3.1 Progress Made on Sector Reform Initiatives - Infrastructure (3.1) Infrastructure Concerted effort made by Government to improve the physical infrastructure in the country - A 30 year National Integrated Infrastructure Master Plan being developed - For more coordinated approach to infrastructure development - All stakeholders to be involved, including the private sector

  10. 3.1 Progress Made on Sector Reform Initiatives - Infrastructure (3.1.1) Agriculture • Steps taken to significantly expand food production by 2014: - Rice by 30% (100 large scale rice mills) - Sorghum by 30% - Cassava by 15% (18 high quality cassava flour mills) • Reducing national food import bill by 15% by 2015 • Increasing agricultural export earnings by 20% by 2015 • Generation of 3.5 million jobs by 2015

  11. 3.1 Progress Made on Sector Reform Initiatives - Infrastructure (3.1.2) Oil and Gas • Special session on the PIB at this summit • Deregulation of downstream petroleum sector to block leakages • Partial removal of subsidy in early 2012, with savings of over N1 trillion • Payment of subsidy claims now subject to greater scrutiny and verification

  12. 3.1 Progress made on of Sector Reform Initiatives - Infrastructure (Cont’d) (3.1.3) Power • General improvement in electricity supply in the country: • Electricity generation stabilised at about 4,000mw • Strong regulatory body – NERC put in place • Effort ongoing to strengthen weak transmission network • Achieving unbundling and privatisation of PHCN and other critical power sector reforms by 2013

  13. 3.1 Progress made on Sector Reform Initiatives – Infrastructure (Cont’d) (3.1.4) Transport • Progress on railways rehabilitation • 3,329km of narrow & standard gauge rail lines rehabilitated by 2012/13 - Lagos-Jebba-Kano (1,124km) - Itape-Ajaokuta-Warri (310km) - Zaria-Gusau-KauranNamoda - Port Harcourt-Enugu-Maiduguri • Construction of Abuja-Kaduna modern standard guage rail line by 2014 • Ongoing ports reforms by 2013 - Reducing clearing time from 7 to 4 days - Ports now working 24 hours

  14. 3.1. Progress made on Sector Reform Initiatives - Infrastructure (Cont’d) (3.1.5) Roads • Rehabilitation of major road networks to be completed by 2013/14 • Complete dualisation of Abuja-Abaji-Lokoja • Reconstruct Benin-Ore-Shagamu-Phases 1,2 & 3 • Dualisation of Kano-Maiduguri, Oyo-Ogbomoso • Rehabilitate Onitsha-Enugu, and Enugu-Port Harcourt (3.1.6) Aviation • Ongoing rehabilitation of existing airports - Remodeling & reconstruction of 11 airports by end December 2012 • Construction of 5 new airport terminals - Lagos, P/Harcourt, Kano, Abuja and Enugu

  15. 3.2 Progress made on Sector Reform Initiatives–Human Capital Development (3.2.1) Education • Concerted efforts involving all tiers of government to address problems of access to and quality of education • Task force on education raised by NEC (3.2.2) Health • Diligent implementation of Health Sector Masterplan, e.g: • Saving one million lives initiative • Polio eradication campaign • Provision and upgrading of health infrsstructure

  16. 3.3 Progress made on Sector Reform Initiatives - Governance (3.3) Good Governance • Addressing new security challenges • Deepening electoral and overall democratic process • Building and strengthening institutions • Blocking leakages and loopholes for: • Greater transparency in the conduct of government business (Good Governance Tour, et al) • Sustaining momentum on anti-corruption • Thus bringing down overall cost of governance

  17. 3.3 Progress made on Sector Reform Initiatives – Governance (cont’d) (3.3.1a) Trade & Investment • Effort at increasing Nigeria’s competitiveness and attraction of FDI beginning to yield fruit - Attracting highest FDI flows in Africa - Global Competitiveness ranking improved from 127 in 2011 to 115 in 2012 - Improvement in cost of doing business from 137 in 2011 to 131 in 2012

  18. 3.3 Progress made on Sector Reform Initiatives – Governance (cont’d) (3.3.1b) Fiscal Consolidation • Government committed to delivering budgets to NASS by September/October, each year Continuing commitment to oil price based fiscal rule • Addressing the high recurrent/capital budget ratio • Increasing focus on value for money spending • Greater focus on enhancing non-oil revenues • Establishment of the Sovereign Wealth Fund

  19. 3.3 Progress made on Sector Reform Initiatives – Governance (cont’d) (3.3.1c) Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy • Substantial build up of foreign reserves from US$32.6 billion in Dec 2011 to US$45.7 billion in mid November 2012 • Relative exchange rate stability achieved • Inflation on a downward trend from 12.9% in June to 11.7% in October, 2012 (3.3.2) Policy Articulation and consistency beginning to yield results.

  20. 4.0 Monitoring the Transformation Agenda • M&E, as essential for effective implementation of the TA • Robust framework for tracking performance and service delivery • Laying foundation for evidence based decision and policy making • Ministerial Scorecards and KPIs, developed and validated by all Ministries • Mr. President signed performance contracts with all Ministers - Performance measurement process been cascaded to Permanent Secretaries, Directors and CEOs of Parastatals - Being cascaded to states, beginning with 8 pilot states

  21. 5.0 Nigeria’s Economic Prospects • Robust economic growth over last five years • Relatively robust GDP growth continuing in 2012 • 6.17% in Q1 • 6.28% in Q2 • 6.48% in Q3 • Revised, projected growth for 2012 and 2013 is 6.5% and 6.75%, respectively • Clearly a number of challenges • Insecurity, especially in North-East and North-West • Recent floodings • Crude oil theft • Need to achieve more inclusive and job creating growth

  22. 5.0 Nigeria’s Economic Prospects (Cont’d) • Nigeria’s great advantages: - One of fastest growing economies in the world - Stable and maturing democracy - Sub-Saharan Africa’s second largest economy - Demographic advantages that could yield huge dividends - Africa’s largest recipient of FDI - On-going reforms for long term economic growth and national transformation • Improvement in Nigeria’s rating • Messrs Fitch and Standard & Poors (S&P) upgraded their ratings both to BB-stable • Moodys affirmed (Ba3 stable, unsolicited) • Others institutions such ass Renaissance Capital, Barclays, JP Morgan all showing positive prospects for Nigeria

  23. 5.0 Nigeria’s Economic Prospects (Cont’d) • Successful conduct of elections by INEC in 2012: • Election in 3 States received widespread domestic and international commendation (Edo, Ondo and Adamawa States) • Maturing of institutions - NASS – constitutional reforms in progress - The Judiciary - The Military and Security Forces acceptance of civilian supremacy

  24. 6.0 What Role for Private Sector? • Reduced suspicion and skepticism • Gain greater understanding • The train has left the station, come on board! • Nigeria Vision 20:2020 • Inspiration • Roadmap • Not prediction • Jim O’Neal – Chairman Goldman Sachs Assets Management - Nigeria's Growth Environment Scores (GES) - Political Stability; Macro Stability; Human Capital etc - Nigeria’s GES score doubled in last 14 yrs

  25. 6.0 What Role for Private Sector? (Cont’d) - If we can double the GES Score in next14 yrs, Nigeria will be a $5 trillion economy • Ruchir Sharma - “Breakout Nations” - ‘Nigeria … has more low-hanging fruit than it can possibly pick in the next five years” -

  26. Thank You Thank You

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