EXPLORING VULNERABILITY AND RESILIENCE IN LAND TENURE SYSTEMS AFTER HURRICANES MITCH AND IVAN

1. EXPLORING VULNERABILITY AND RESILIENCE IN LAND TENURE SYSTEMS AFTER HURRICANES MITCH AND IVAN Grenville Barnes and Gerald Riverstone University of Florida February 2008

2. Structure of Presentation • Introduction • Conceptual Framework • Grenada (Ivan) • Honduras (Mitch) • Issues and Lessons • Conclusions

3. Approach of UN-Habitat Study • Pro-poor land perspective • utilization of concepts of vulnerability and resilience as applied to natural disasters • Include focus on institutional and land governance • Seek opportunities for long-term improvement to land tenure and administration following natural disasters [Linnerooth-Bayer et al. 2005]

4. VULNERABILITY RESILIENCE Root Causes Longterm + - Dynamic Pressures Midterm Unsafe Conditions Short-term Multiple spatial scales

5. Natural Disasters and Vulnerability • Natural disaster = hazard + vulnerability • Vulnerability = the level of difficulty to “anticipate, cope with, resist, and recover from the impact of natural hazard”(Blaikie et al, 1994) • A product of: concentrated wealth and power, unsound development models, poverty, uncontrolled land- use and urbanization, environmental degradation, and population growth • Also expressed as marginalization: a cycle of social and environmental degradation(Blaikie and Brookfield, 1987)

6. JR Root Causes Dynamic Pressures Unsafe Conditions VULNERABILITY • poverty • unequal land • distribution • mountainous • terrain • weak meso-level • governance • prioritizing • agro-exports • age structure • Fragile • livelihoods • informal • settlement • settlement in • high risk zones • deforestation • rapid • urbanization • frequency of • disasters = [adapted from Blaikie et al 1994, p. 23]

7. Resilience - Focus on Change • Emerging research focus on change (e.g. Land Use/Land Cover Change; Climate Change Science) • Sustainability = assumes stability and explains change • Resilience = assumes change and explains stability (Folke, Colding & Berkes 2003) shock change surprise • Cyclical • Random • Non-linear Social-Ecological System disturbance crisis perturbation uncertainty variation

8. Measuring Resilience • Amount of change that a system can undergo while still maintaining the same structure and function • System’s ability to self-organize • Degree to which the system is capable of learning and adapting(Carpenter et al 2001) • Definition of social-ecological system - components - relationships - innovation (Cumming et al 2005)

9. TOWARD GREATER RESILIENCE Long-term Mid-term Short-term RESILIENCE • poverty • alleviation • land reform • improve • governance • food • sovereignty • Diversification • of livelihoods • Tenure ladder • Resettlement • Reforestation • Rural • employment = ** Key elements: Adaptation, Innovation, Persistence, feedbacks

10. Central America and the Caribbean Location of Honduras and Grenada Case Studies

11. Grenada • Southeastern Caribbean • Second-smallest nation in hemisphere (344 sq. kms) • Includes islands of Carriacou • and Petit Martinique • Population = 103,000 (2005) • Capital: St. George’s • Economy: tourism, services, agriculture, remittances • WBI Governance Score……. +0.17 • Population below poverty line…… 28% • HDI Rank (2007)…….. 82 / 177 • IFC Rank for Registering Property…. 145

12. Hurricane Ivan in Grenada • September 2004 • Primarily a wind event • Devastated housing stock • Major impacts to agricultural sector • Losses 2 x GDP

13. Grenada: Contributors to Vulnerability • Aging rural population • Dependence on two main cash crops – nutmeg and cocoa • Informal settlements • ‘family land’ tenure • Tenure insecurity (re. donors)

14. Building Resilience • Diversification of livelihoods • Social Networks • Tenure ladder (intermediate mechanisms)

15. Honduras • Second-largest nation in Central America (112,000 sq. km) • Population (2003) 7.0 million • Capital: Tegucigalpa • Urban population: 54.5% Mountainous (16% arable land) • GDP $7 million • Second poorest country in hemisphere • HDI Rank (2007) 115 / 177 • % below poverty line 64% • Major exports: coffee, bananas

16. Honduras: Social-ecological vulnerability and the agroexport development model Latter half 20th Century: Agroexport model promoted by transnational companies, national elite, and international financial institutions. Large-scale rural to urban migration: informal settlements on steep slopes (e.g. Tegucigalpa) and flood-prone areas (e.g. San Pedro Sula) Farmers displaced to marginal lands: hill slopes and the agricultural frontier, leading to deforestation and environmental degradation RURAL AND URBAN POVERTY AND ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION: VULNERABILITY TO NATURAL HAZARDS

17. Hurricane Mitch in Honduras • October 26 – November 1 1998 • Worst disaster in W. hemisphere in 200 years • Intense rainfall event: floods, landslides • 14,000 dead/missing in Honduras • 220,000 houses damaged or destroyed • devastated infrastructure (e.g. 33 bridges destroyed 75 bridges damaged) • >$3 billion in losses • Massive international aid effort

18. Landslides and urbanization in Tegucigalpa North Rio Choluteca Landslide October 31 Temporary lake From Campos, SICA/CRRH

19. Resettlement projects • Tens of thousands displaced in Tegucigalpa by flooding and mudslides • Spent up to 4Y in shelters • Shortage of urban land outside hazard zones • Large-scale projects (e.g. Ciudad Espana) • Livelihood scarcity, long travel times • Some return to hazard areas Lessons learned: • Need for secondary rights on adjacent properties • Temporary on-site housing allows for greater beneficiary involvement • Need to contemplate livelihoods • 10 years conditional ownership too long • Need room for expansion/extended family Source: IFRCRCS (2002). Rebuilding after Hurricane Mitch: Housing reconstruction in Hondurasand Nicaragua The Ciudad España project

20. Disaster Management and social mobilization • In Honduras, CODELs (Local Disaster Committees) created after Mitch • Reponse to corruption, dependency • Transparency and broad participation: incl. women, youth. • First responsible for food distribution • Became empowered: social audits, municipal budgets, disaster planning. • Challenged political structures • Contributed to land takeover (CREM) in Aguan Valley • Formed networks at regional level Lessons learned: • Promotes good governance from the demand side • Basic tasks provide precedents for larger efforts Photos: Paul Jeffrey/CCD.

21. Post-disaster peasant land occupation • May 2000 occupation of former Regional Military Training Centre (CREM) • 700 families united by the Aguán Farmers’ Movement (~3000 people) • First peasant occupation organized entirely by civil society – bolstered by post-disaster local organizations • Families organized in cooperatives • Had support from INA Director • 2001 congressional decree ordered regularization/transfer • Some titles awarded, but still waiting for remainder. The launching of the Global Campaign for Agrarian Reform at the former site of the Regional Center for Military Training (CREM) in Honduras(photo: FIAN)

22. Agroecological methods and Hurricane Mitch • Study by Holt-Gimenez (2001) • Based on Campesino a Campesino plots and neighboring plots of conventional ag. • Methods include, mulching, cover crops, intercropping, agroforestry, no-burn methods, terracing, etc… • Favorable results for topsoil retention, depth to humidity, severe erosion • Lessons learned: • Agroecological methods increased resilience to extreme weather event • Secure tenure vital to intensive approaches • Can be seen as disaster mitigation

23. A look at the bigger picture:Land distribution pre- and post-Mitch/AML • Based on a panel data set from four Honduran departments (1994-2001): • Gini coefficent changed from 0.71 to 0.76 • Small farms got smaller • Large farms got bigger • Greater numbers of landless and land poor following the 1992 Agricultural Modernization Law • Land market activity: • Land sales did not appear to increase post-Mitch. • Land rentals increased 10-fold, but did not compensate for land sales from small to large farmers. From Barham, B., S. Boucher, P. Useche (2002). The Long and Grinding Road of Inegalitarian Agrarian Structure in Honduras: Impacts of Market Reforms and Hurricane Mitch. Washington, DC: World Bank. Available at: http://siteresources.worldbank.org/DEC/Resources/LongandGrinding.pdf

24. NEW APPROACHES TO LAND POLICY ARE NEEDED (Photo Paul Jeffrey/CCD.) 

25. The food sovereignty model:toward reduced rural vulnerability and fewer natural disasters Food sovereignty as promoted by Via Campesina includes: • Prioritizing local agriculture for local consumption. • The promotion of agroecological methods • The right of countries to protect themselves from dumping of low priced food products • The right of farmers to receive a just price for their products • Access to and control over land and natural resources by farmers • Redistributive land reform • State support for sustainable small-scale agriculture (based on access to credit and inputs, just and stable prices, tenure security, and the protection of consumers’ health) • Commercialization that prioritizes local markets Sources: Via Campesina; Rosset (2002)

26. Postscript:Land tenure and natural disaster into the future • Study of recent disasters provides glimpse of future • Convergence of large-scale factors: • Peak oil (more costly inputs and transport) • Increased Asian demand • Climate change • Population growth • Major changes lie ahead for global land-use and food systems • Results already visible: food rationing and riots; spiraling grain costs; restricted exports • In response to more costly imports, domestic production will become more attractive • Will require rapid state responses Cartoon from the Jamaica Observer February 13, 2008 Keys to the Cuban transition toward a more food sovereignty–style model, during the 1990s. From Rosset (2006)

27. CASE STUDY DESCRIPTION