Chapter 12 Elections

1. David Greenberg, “Accentuating the Negative” Chapter 12 Elections

2. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gccofwmEiGI short Obama http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BnkI0lyIzcc longer Obama http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LHFREDHB-nQ Obama as Muslim http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v9LhWUsrJnM Hillary on LBJ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K1Ytbr-7VaE Bill Clinton fairy tale Lipstick on a pig

3. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uXXcaGNY1yc Lewis on Clinton John Lewis, Congressman of Georgia

4. Dukakis on crime http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Io9KMSSEZ0Y&NR=1 Obama on McCain’s healthcare plan http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6OzxuFnqhSE Max Cleland ad http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eJGAWT90Xl4 Saxby Chambliss ad http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0baIxdp-xEA&feature=related More negative ads

5. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WEPlZYp5-Pk Positive advertising

6. Reduces voter turnout Reduces faith in government Tends to mobilize conservatives while demobilizing liberals Negative advertising

7. “Hence ignorance of politics is not a result of unpatriotic apathy; rather it is a highly rational response to the facts of political life in a large democracy.” If a voter believes there is no difference between candidate A and candidate B, or party A and party B, is it rational for them to believe that the casting of a vote will make a difference in how they are governed? Obama used the tried and true message of “change” to convince voters that he would be different and was able to mobilize youth and the marginalized. Anthony Downs and the rational voter

8. Income and education Race Age Gender Place of residence Who votes

9. Go together. Blue collar workers who will have to pay higher taxes to pay for tax cuts for those in higher income tax brackets statistically vote for candidates who promise reduced taxes. “Much research shows that education is the strongest determinant of who votes.” If you understand the issues being discussed in the news, you are more likely to pay attention to the news and to have an informed opinion on which to base your vote. This is why I teach this class the way that I do. RACE – less of a role as income and education gaps are reduced. Income and education

10. age • Low rate of participation for youth, high rate of participation for the elderly. • Youth • Less knowledgeable • More likely to accept that both parties are the same. Has only about 8 years of reference. • Difficult for college students to vote: can’t stand in line to vote and miss classes, don’t have valid ID, or are in school out of state.

11. Have 50 to 60 years of experience of political observation, more likely to see a difference between the two parties. Have the time to pay more attention to the news. Are often bussed to the polls. Elderly voters

12. Women vote more than men yet still make 75 cents on the dollar and hold far fewer positions of leadership. gender

13. People tend not to vote in areas with “safe seats” or where the electoral college is not up for grabs. Campaigning itself is minimal in these areas during the general election. Voters reasonably perceive of their vote as not making much of a difference. However, a single close race on the ballot can increase voter turnout. • United States Senate election in Vermont, 1998 • Patrick Leahy (D), 72% • Fred Tuttle (R), 23% Place of residence

14. When basic needs are met and individuals have a sense of security, time and resources will often be diverted to the improvement of life satisfaction. A family living hand to mouth is unlikely to take the kids to Disneyland. A family earning a good deal of disposable income that has a retirement account, college savings, and minimal debt beyond a reasonable mortgage payment will. postmaterialism

15. Party ID Class voting Regional voting Religious blocs Age groups Gender gap Marriage gap Race Urban voting Who votes how?

16. Most have long-term loyalty to a particular party but could vote for another party as a result of short-term variables. The economy is the most salient short-term variable in elections with both parties vying to claim or blame. How we vote

17. Can be overcome by party loyalty or religious beliefs in the mind of the individual voter. IE blue collar worker support for Republicans. Economic class

18. What is this a map of? Regional voting

19. Religious blocs

20. Age group – fear Gender gap – frequently discussed, women vote Democratic more. Marriage gap Minorities vote Democratic, whites who fear minorities vote Republican (this does not suggest that all who vote Republican fear minorities) Other indicators

21. Less afraid of others, more accepting of diversity. Urban voting and swing states “Pennsylvania is Philadelphia and Pittsburgh with Alabama in between.” – quote attributed to James Carville

22. More polarized parties Polarized media networks Politicians in gerrymandered districts can become more extreme. Americans move to areas that match their cultural beliefs (self-selection on a grand scale) “culture wars” Partisan polarization

23. How’s the economy? Who makes more people feel optimistic? Use of fear Candidate strategies and mobilizing your voters Who wins

24. The decline of polls and the rise of focus groups • Are political parties more interested in following or shaping public opinion. • If polls tell you that the public is opposed to your political preferences, do you give in to public opinion, or shape it to come around to your ideas? • Advertising agencies use to sell a product, politicians use to sell an idea: • “Death panels for grandma” • “Drill baby, drill” • “The smoking gun that comes in the shape of a mushroom cloud.” • “The difference between a pitbull and a hockey Mom…” • “Obamacare” • “The failure of the New Deal”