Chapter 13 elections and voting

1. Opening page: Repudiation of Barack Obama, or supporters who had “the audacity of hope” for “change”. Felt let down by the watered down healthcare reform and were less than impressed with Barack Obama’s leadership style. If you do not vote, you cannot complain. Chapter 13 elections and voting

2. The textbook states, “The threat of elections keeps policy makers concerned with public opinion and promotes ethical behavior.” How does this change if a lucrative job as a lobbyist awaits the Congressman voted out of office? Citizen legislators

3. Primary Elections: vote for party candidate that will compete in the later general election. • Closed primary: only the party’s members can participate. • Open Primary: open to independents and members of the opposition party. • Runoff primary: No candidate receives a majority of the votes cast, so a runoff is called for the two with the most votes. • General election: The winners of the primaries face opposing party candidates to determine who will get the seat. Types of elections

4. Initiative: Citizens take the initiative to pass legislation that has not been proposed by the state legislative process. Referendum: State legislatures “passing the buck” to the people to decide. Interest groups and “the initiative industry”. Look at I-1183. How many voters actually understood what they were voting on? How many voters voted to reduce the cost of vehicle license tabs not realizing that it would just result in more regressive forms of taxation elsewhere? How many voters voted against discriminatory practices in hiring without realizing that they were actually repealing affirmative action in Washington State? Wealthy individuals and corporations can bankroll these measures, even from out of state. $83 million was raised by both sides for Proposition 8, with much of it coming from outside the state and even the country. Ballot measures

5. Following the passage of legislation that took away the right to organize from state workers, numerous public officials in Wisconsin have been put on the ballot for recall. Initially, 6 Republican state senators were put up for recall with two of them losing their seats to Democrats. Governor Scott Walker had to be in office for a full year before he was eligible for recall, but the clock has started ticking for him as well. recall

6. “The horse race” or “politics as electoral spectacle”. • Plurality vs proportional system • Proportional representation (PR) systems allow for more political parties (more ideas) to compete. Plurality systems tend toward duopoly. • PR systems encourage cooperation between the parties as your opposing party today may be your partners in a coalition government tomorrow. • PR systems in a parliamentary framework goes far toward eliminating gridlock as the majority and the prime minister (PM) are from the same party. Major reforms are easier to implement. Presidential elections

7. Winner-take-all primary: Democrats don’t use, Republicans prefer. The winner can be determined in the first few states under this method, leaving the selection of candidates to the first few states. Each presidential election year there is some controversy of states moving up their primaries (front-loading) in order to have an influence on the outcome. In 2008, there was a question as to whether Michigan and Florida would have their delegates seated at the Democratic National Convention because they had moved up their primary dates against the wishes of the DNC. Primaries and caucuses

8. Proportional representation primary: More fair, allowing candidates who do not do well in the early states an opportunity to get back in the race in later states. This delays the selection of a final candidate, however, and lengthens the amount of time that the candidate is having shots taken at them from their own party. Primaries and caucuses

9. Caucus: more oriented toward party members rather than a broader electorate. • Typically involve rounds of voting. Minimum support levels are required to move on to the next round. As candidates fail to meet the minimum requirements they are dropped from consideration and supporters then move on to their second choice. Debate on the candidates merits are carried out by supporters as they try to convince others to support their candidates. Primaries and caucuses

10. “Primaries are also more similar to to the general election and thus constitute a rigorous test for the candidates, a chance to display under pressure some of the skills needed to be a successful president.” Other than the ability to use the bully pulpit to your advantage, what skills of governance are displayed in a campaign? Successful campaigns typically speak in vague platitudes, whereas governance requires specific legislative agendas to deal with real world problems. Successful campaigns receive donations and support from interest groups. Those who govern successfully need to be able to remain autonomous from those same interest groups. campaign

11. The number of Congressmen (reps and sens) + 3 from Washington DC = 538 electors 270 votes to win in a two-way race. Should the electoral college be eliminated? There is an issue of expediency. Without the electoral college, it would be necessary for each state to count every vote, as opposed to just counting enough to declare a winner. On the other hand, in a close race, the electoral college can defeat the desire of the majority. Popular vote Bush: 50,456,002 Gore: 50,999,897 Percentage Bush: 47.9% Gore: 48.4% Electoral vote Bush: 271 Gore: 266 Might the popular vote be different if every vote was counted? Electoral college

12. The 435 Congressional districts would each cast a ballot (in an electoral college) based on local results. 2 additional electoral college votes would be winner take all for each state. Advantage: it could be done without Constitutional Amendment, but some of the same problems would remain. States can vote to move to the current system. In September, Pennsylvania Republicans were considering moving to a congressional district plan for selecting electors. Had this been in place in 2008, Barack Obama would have had 10 fewer electoral college votes. Republicans hold both Houses and the Governorship in Pennsylvania and such a move could be overreach and cause a significant backlash within the state. Congressional district plan

13. We already covered the advantages of incumbency in the Chapter on Congress. Primarily, funding, staff, and name recognition. • How they lose: • Redistricting: Dennis Kucinich will lose his district and has expressed an interest in running in Seattle. • Scandals: Often Congressmen will retire rather than lose reelection, however, we are starting to see some staying in office and getting reelected. David Vitter and the DC madam is still in office having won reelection after scandal. Vitter is an advocate of religious right social positions including abstinence only sex education. Anthony Weiner resigned in disgrace. • Coattails: Riding on the presidential candidates support • Midterm elections: Loss of House seats by the president’s party is common. Senate is not subject to jerrymandering. • In campaigning, the president sells his agenda to the public. The midterm elections register displeasure. This is why Congressional members would like greater control over the candidate selection process. If the candidate comes up short, House members are likely to lose their seats. Why incumbents lose

14. Political participation • Conventional • Unconventional

15. Demographics already covered in Chapter on Political Parties. • Policy issues: • Retrospective judgment: how has the party in power actually governed? • Prospective judgment: No record to judge on, what will the candidate actually do if elected? Keep it vague and let the voters decide what you will do. The Barnum Effect. • Studies have shown that voters will typically vote for the “devil they know” if they lack sufficient information regarding how a challenger is likely to behave. Vote choice

16. Income and education are the strongest indicators of an individual’s likelihood of voting. Because these two factors correlate so closely, we will not distinguish which one is dominant. Consider them both to be the most important characteristic as to whether we vote or not. All other factors can be correlated in some method to income and education. Who votes?

17. Join the Debate – felons voting

19. When looking over reasons not to vote we should also consider whether some of these issues offer an opportunity to disenfranchise. Other commitments: Only being able to wait in a long line to vote on a Tuesday would preclude hundreds of students and workers from reasonably being able to vote. Difficulties in registration and absentee balloting: keeping these difficult or making them harder would further suppress the vote. Why not vote?

20. Number of elections; voter burnout but nothing changes Voter attitudes: see no difference in the parties or don’t like either candidate. Fiscal conservative but social liberal or vice versa. Why not vote?

21. Election day a holiday/work day • Expand early voting/limit early voting • Mail and online voting/harder to vote by absentee ballot • Make registration easier/harder • Automatic registration breeds apathy and complacency? Really? • Ballot technology: concerns over electronic voting machines. The concern was not about individual fraud, but the potential of vote count manipulation by the manufacturers themselves. Google “Diebold voting machine controversy” • Party “get out the vote” or “keep out the vote”. Democrats tend to pass legislation that makes voting easier, Republicans tend to pass voting that makes voting more difficult – often specifically targeted toward certain demographic groups. Ways to improve/suppress the vote