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Lebanon – Crisis and Future

Lebanon – Crisis and Future. History – Ancient History. Key-spot between Occident, Middle-East and Asia: victim of a lot of invasions 395 Byzantine Empire 635 Arab conquests 1291 Mamluks from Egypt 1515 Ottoman Empire. History – Pre Civil War. 1920 French Mandate- State of Great Lebanon

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Lebanon – Crisis and Future

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  1. Lebanon – Crisis and Future

  2. History – Ancient History • Key-spot between Occident, Middle-East and Asia: victim of a lot of invasions • 395 Byzantine Empire • 635 Arab conquests • 1291 Mamluks from Egypt • 1515 Ottoman Empire

  3. History – Pre Civil War • 1920 French Mandate- State of Great Lebanon • 1926 Republic + Constitution • 1943 Unwritten National Covenant; Lebanon to be neutral, independent but ties with the West • 1943 Lebanon declares officially its independence • 1944 Removal of French troops

  4. History – Pre Civil War • 1957 Lebanon accepts US economic and military aid • 1958 US military intervention • Arab –Israeli War: no direct role but Lebanon receives direct negative consequences • 1967 Palestinians use Lebanon as base • 1968 Israel attacks Beirut airport • 1973 Israel kills 3 Palestinian leaders in Lebanon

  5. History – Civil War • 1975 fights start between Palestinians + their Lebanese allies and the Phalangists • 1976 general Civil War; Syria sends troops • 1978 Israeli invasion of South Lebanon , UN resolution • 1982 Israeli back in Lebanon • 1985 most Israeli troops removed except in the South • 1988 Double government

  6. History – post Civil War • 1989 – Ta'if Agreement signed • 90s - Power Struggle • Syrian control • 2000 – Israel withdraws from southern Lebanon

  7. History – Revolution and War • 2005 – PM Rafiq Hariri assassinated • Cedar Revolution throws off Syrian influence • 2006 war between Hezbollah and Israel • Current situation – gridlocked government

  8. Hezbollah is backed by Syria and Iran Has 14 Reps in Parliament Fought 33 day war with Israel in 2006 Fatah al-Islam, a Sunni group inspired by al-Qaeda, has come to prominence since 2007 Scenario 1 - Gridlock • No President since Nov 2007 • The next scheduled election is set for 22 April • Pro-Western and pro-Syrian sides cannot agree on a candidate

  9. Scenario 1 - Violence • Continuing domestic violence • Assassinations of prominent officials relatively common • Four members of parliament killed in past 2 years • US has sent ships to patrol off coast

  10. Scenario 1 - Prediction • Situation will continue if: • Presidential elections keep getting pushed back • Hezbollah gets continuing support from Tehran and Damascus • Assassinations continue, further stalling the political process and raising tensions • The U.S. Navy keeps sides at bay

  11. Scenario 2 – Civil War • Fought a bloody civil war from 1975-1990 • Israel engaged in war with Hezbollah in 2006 • Lebanese Army engaged Fatah al-Islam in refugee camps in 2007

  12. Scenario 2 - Prediction • Major Players • Lebanese Govt • Hezbollah • Israel • Until Lebanese Govt gets organized, most likely confrontation is another Hezbollah-Israel War • If organized govt is pro-West, will engage Hezbollah • U.S./Israeli assistance? • If organized govt is pro-Hezbollah/Syria, will likely spark war with Israel

  13. Scenario 3 – Revolution • Pre-Civil War • Stable, high standard for living in Middle East • Biggest industries: Banking, tourism, services • Power Sharing government • “Switzerland” of Middle East • Growing industry and GDP

  14. Scenario 3 – Foreign Involvement • End direct foreign involvement • Syria, Iran • Israel • Foreign economic aid • Investment • Debt forgiveness

  15. Scenario 3 – Internal Changes • Government Structure • Better match reality of Lebanon • Unite country under central control • Hizballah • Reform towards political party • “Cedar Revolution” style non-violent protests • Stabilize violence, allow for return of commerce

  16. Conclusion

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