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Predictive Science and Program Credibility: “Beyond M over U”

Predictive Science and Program Credibility: “Beyond M over U”. Njema Frazier, PhD Acting Deputy Director, Office of Advanced Simulation and Computing. July 2008. Stockpile Stewardship Program Decision-Basis. Computing. Balancing Act in building Confidence. Representing the Science

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Predictive Science and Program Credibility: “Beyond M over U”

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  1. Predictive Science and Program Credibility: “Beyond M over U” Njema Frazier, PhD Acting Deputy Director, Office of Advanced Simulation and Computing July 2008

  2. Stockpile Stewardship Program Decision-Basis Computing

  3. Balancing Act in building Confidence • Representing the Science • Hydrodynamics • Turbulence • Equations of State • Neutron Chain Reactions • Material Properties, Strengths • Shocks and Material Interfaces • Material Deformation, Plastic Flow • Nuclear and Thermonuclear Reactions • Electronics. Electrical Systems • Energetic Materials, Chemical Reactions • Heat Flow • Opacities • Magneto-hydrodynamics • Plasmas • Lasers • Radiation and Charged Particle Transport • Solving the Problems • LEPs • SFIs • Engineering • Safety • Threat Reduction • Secure Transportation • ICF • Supplying the Tools • Codes • Models • Platforms • Vis Capabilities • Expertise • Facilities • QMU Undervalued Tool in building Confidence: A Sound Methodology for identifying, quantifying, understanding, and driving down uncertainties

  4. National Decision-Basis Computing

  5. Delivery of Validated Tools • We Know all the Science present • We Understand all the Science present • We Understand how all the Science behaves in all our Systems • We Understand how all the Science would behave with variations on our Systems • We have identified the key Science phenomena present • We Understand most of the key Science present • We Understand how most of the key Science behaves in our Systems • We Understand how most of the key Science would behave with minor variations on our Systems

  6. Balancing Act in building Confidence • Scientific Approach • Systematic • Directed • Based on Core Methodologies • Rigorous testing • Sound Results • Reproducible • Consistent • Understandable • Well Understood Uncertainties • Error Bounds • Physical-basis for free parameters • Relationship between approximations and exact solutions • Identification of Single and Aggregate Uncertainties • Measures of Progress • Predictive Capability Framework • V&V Assessments • Milestones • External Reviews • Reduced Uncertainties in baselines • Increased usage Looking to build confidence in Methodologies and Measures …in addition to tools, people, and direction.

  7. Thank you!

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