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Badly Burned. When Does Technology Become Too Hot to Handle?

Badly Burned. When Does Technology Become Too Hot to Handle?. Anne L. Coulombe Principal, SciPlan Systems Inc. acoulombe@sciplan.com. OCRI 3T – May 3 rd , 2001. The Presentation. Presenter background Definitions: bandwidth, pervasive networking and wireless communication

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Badly Burned. When Does Technology Become Too Hot to Handle?

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  1. Badly Burned.When Does Technology BecomeToo Hot to Handle? Anne L. Coulombe Principal, SciPlan Systems Inc. acoulombe@sciplan.com OCRI 3T – May 3rd, 2001

  2. The Presentation • Presenter background • Definitions: bandwidth, pervasive networking and wireless communication • Cute ideas, innovative toys, productivity tools • The ratings • Questions and audience feedback Disclaimer: these are the views of the presenter based on research & industry experience … disagreement is optional (and expected).

  3. 10 Second Background • 15 years in the tech industry • Delivered 48 products to market (h/w & s/w combo, titles, application s/w, IS Systems) • Opinionated and an avid listener • Mixed background: technology, marketing & business • A claim to fame: argueing with both Steve Ballmer & Bill Gates in the first month of work at Microsoft. Hum, I did set them straight…

  4. Definitions • Bandwidth: • It is like trying to slurp an ice-cold milkshake using a small straw … then the head rush when the momentum is created. • Pervasive networking: • The dog’s special bark instant-messages me and initiates a vid-con on my phone where I get the ‘sad-eyes look’ pleading for a walk.

  5. Definitions (more) • Wireless Communication: • Teenagers chatting to each other as they walk up the street in opposite directions, then stop to beam info using their Palms … • Or was that the color coded numeric pagers worn to signify “I am single and looking for my soul-mate”.

  6. Reality Today Concept Result Too hot to handle Merging into: Technology Products + Solutions Bandwidth Hot (the Ferrari) Pervasive Networking Warm (the Civic) Technology Trend Wireless Cold (the Nova)

  7. Too hot Hot Warm Cold Robotic dog (e.g. Sony’s Aibo) IP enabled coffee makers, family-band radios, CDPD wireless, RIM’s Blackberry (future) A PAN in your home using X10, Blackberry (now), PDAs Standalone video-game machine, Pentium II at home Consumer Products

  8. Too hot Hot Warm Cold Fully optical switching, FTTC, solving the last mile issue once and for all SMS, wireless WAN, iTV over copper, IP enabled multimedia plasma walls, VoIP, xDSL, HFC Optical LAN connections, multi-use and multi-protocol web-cam, “broadband” NiCs, 56K home connection Communication Products

  9. Too hot Hot Warm Cold Molecular computing (measured in terahertz) SoC (system-on-a-chip), using new materials: SOI, GaAS, SiGe 64-bit arch., PIII/800, 900 MHz home-office phones Moore’s Law Semiconductors

  10. Too hot Hot Warm Cold IP driven multimedia billboards, adjusting to demographics of street traffic … and purchase advertised goods via WAP-phone. Portals Web-based order-entry and order fulfillments systems: e-ticket, etc Original content production for pure resale, workflow Web-based Business Systems

  11. Too hot Hot Warm Cold A dot-com with a too-good-to-be-true business plan SHTTP, reusable components, Xtreme programming techniques XML, Java, middleware, COM, basic web building tools HTTP, HTML, objects Web Tools

  12. Too hot Hot Warm Cold Viral marketing, biometrics CRM, web-extensions to business processes, supply-chain management (SCM), enterprise application integration (EAI), profitability management ERP, business intelligence systems, security data protection, everyone with a connected PDA, telecom infrastructure A standalone e-com site, thinking customers will “just come to us” Enterprise Computing

  13. Some Thoughts • As a consumer: • How do you evaluate technology: fun, cost, other? • First in line? • Need the proof first? • As a business: • ROI …. Hum, that acronym! • Need a reminder about why you are in business? • Competitive value, competitive advantage: • new markets, new products, breakthrough technologies • The merging of analogue consumer-electronics and the digital world of computing

  14. Let’s Rate The Following: • PenCam • PKI • VoIP • Bluetooth • Blackberry • 3G • Cure for AIDS • Red wine Too hot Hot Technology Trend Warm Cold Commodity Me-too evolution Breakthrough Product Trend

  15. Some Ratings Synthetic DNA Too hot Fuel cell car On-line brokerage services Hot Technology Trend Cell phone WAP phones Warm Cold Land-line Commodity Me-too evolution Breakthrough Product Trend

  16. Conclusion • As early adopters we live for the “too hot” and the “hot” technologies. • As consumers and IT folks, we live in the less risky “warm” area …. That is where the real money is made for the manufacturers and corporate profits soar. • As high-techkers wanting to push the envelope, the key is breakthrough technology that is much too hot to handle then cools off within months and just tons are sold! • Where has your bottom line ended up?

  17. Interesting Links • http://www.compaq.com/rcfoc/index.html Rapidly Changing Face of Computing by Jeffrey R. Harrow (not necessarily the views of Compaq!) • http://www.fortune.com/indexw.jhtml?channel=artcol.jhtml&doc_id=200846 10 Tech Trends To Bet On (Fortune) • http://www.amrresearch.com/Register/default.asp Received the “First Thing Monday” report

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