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The IMPACTS project – Producing policy relevant science for abating the Acid rain problem

The IMPACTS project – Producing policy relevant science for abating the Acid rain problem. Rolf D. Vogt University of Oslo With slides borrowed from here and there…. The European starting point.

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The IMPACTS project – Producing policy relevant science for abating the Acid rain problem

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  1. The IMPACTS project – Producing policy relevant science for abating the Acid rain problem Rolf D. Vogt University of Oslo With slides borrowed from here and there…

  2. The European starting point 1960-1970: Large scale fish death reported in lakes and rivers in Norway and Sweden (fishkill episodes were reported in salmon rivers in Southern Norway already in 1900-1920) 1980s: Severe dieback of forest were reported in central Europe 70 Western Germany

  3. The UN ECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution Ratified in 197930 European countries, USA and Canada participated • Monitoring programs under the Convention: • EMEP (Air and Precipitation) • UN-ICP-Waters • UN-ICP-Forest • UN-ICP-Integrated Monitoring

  4. Emission reduction protocols developed as more knowledge was acquired from the monitoring programs • 1985 Helsinki: Sulphur, flat percent reduction • 1988 Sophia: NOx, flat percent reduction • 1994 Oslo: Sulphur, effect based (critical loads) • 1999 Gothenburg: Multi-pollutant Multi-effects: • Acidification • Eutrofication • Ozone EMEP monitoring program ICP-Water monitoring program ICP-Forest monitoring program

  5. Declining Sulphur deposition Declining Sulphur deposition • 60 % reduction in emissions • 40 – 80 % reduction in deposition S-deposition in southern Norway

  6. Extent of critical load Exceedance have decreased Exceedance (meq/m2/yr)

  7. Acid Rain in China (BP, 2004) Data from 1990 to 2003 from (SEPA, 2004); estimates from before 1990 from (Lefohn, et al., 1999)

  8. “十五”末期（2005年）酸雨分布Acid rain map by 2005 Yu Fang, 2007

  9. 10年中国环境保护投资的变化趋势Environmental Investment in China over the last 10 years Yu Fang, 2007

  10. 2004年大气污染经济损失Air pollution cost of China in 2004 Yu Fang, 2007 • National air pollution cost in 2004 is estimated to be about 220 billion yuan

  11. Project reasoning • Integrated environmental monitoring and research! • > 30 years of lessons learned • Last 16 years also in China • Opportunity of doing it right the first time around • Successful scientific interdisciplinary cooperation • Modelling • Multieffect studies • From science to policy (effect based emission reduction strategy) What does China need that Norwegians are especially good at?

  12. Differences China - Europe • Different deposition • Older soils • Different climate • Steep topography（地形） • Different biota • Existing knowledge need to be adapted to Chinese conditions • Need an integrated monitoring programme

  13. Integrated Monitoring（监测） Program on Acidification of Chinese Terrestrial（陆生）Systems

  14. Aim and Approach目标和手段 • Transfer the Tools of the trade needed to improve the information basis for the Chinese authorities to prepare and implement a cost-efficient environmental policy 控制酸雨污染 的损益分析on the reduction of the effects of acid rain • Conducting Critical Load 临界负荷 assessment adapted to Chinese environmental conditions • Need an integrated monitoring research programme 综合观测 • Identify key processes controlling the composition of water when passing though acid sensitive watersheds 酸化机理 • Adapt simulation and prediction models to Chinese environmental conditions Establish dose-response relationships of the soils by use of habituated prediction models 建立符合中国的酸化临界模型 • Identify acid sensitive species and key parameters explaining variation in vegetation 确立敏感物种 • Assess potential ecological impact under different scenarios of acid rain deposition 建立酸沉降与环境的响应模式

  15. Integrated Monitoring at 5 acid sensitive IMPACTS sites 雷公山 铁山坪 鹿冲关 蔡家塘 LGS, Guizhou TSP, ChongQing LCG, Guizhou CJT, Hunan LXH, GuangDong 流溪河

  16. Integrated monitoring

  17. Sulfate and nitrogen deposition

  18. Calcium deposition and pH

  19. Major findings from IMPACTS主要成果 • Dry deposition larger than wet deposition 某些区域干沉降大于湿沉降

  20. Major findings from IMPACTS主要成果 • Up to 50% forest defoliation observed • Both direct and indirect effects of acid rain on ecosystems must be considered

  21. Major findings from IMPACTS主要成果 Major findings from IMPACTS主要成果 • Release of aluminium to potentially toxic levels某些监测点土壤水铝的浓度达到危害临界 LGS • High aluminum mobilisation at more acidified site • Aluminum is potentially toxic TSP

  22. Major findings from IMPACTS主要成果 • Model predictions show up to 60% reduction in S deposition needed to avoid further acidification

  23. Thank you for the attention!

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