Fragile States, Global Security and Development: Development Policy Responses

1. Fragile States, Global Security and Development: Development Policy Responses Dr. Olli Ruohomäki, Senior Adviser Ministry for Foreign Affairs, Finland

2. Development & Security Intertwined • World has never seemed more free, wealth and developed • Freedom from want, freedom from fear and freedom to take action on one’s behalf still remain a challenge for over a billion people • State-centered security notions failed to make the world a safer place • Increasing understanding that development and security intertwined

3. What are fragile states? • New concept - no agreed global list, WB work on Low Income Countries Under Stress (LICUS); failed states; recovering states; difficult partnerships, rogue states, states ‘unable or unwilling to harness domestic and international resources effectively for poverty reduction’ (Torres and Anderson, 2004) • WB Country Policy and Institutional Assesment (CPIA) divides low-income countries into 5 categories -> the lowest two of which are useful proxies for state fragility

4. What are fragile states? • Indicators: population, GNI per capita, ODA per capita, aid as % of GNI, GDP per capita annual growth rate, birth attended by skilled health personnel %, one-year-olds fully immunised against measles, net primary enrolment %, proportion of undernourished in total population %

5. What are fragile states? • Proxy list of fragile states & Finnish development cooperation: Afganistan, Cambodia, Ethiopia, Kenya, Lao PDR, Nepal, Sudan, Timor Leste • 46 fragile states containing 870 million people or 14 % of the world’s population, 30 % of people living under 1 euro per day, Every 3rd person undernourished • States move in and out of the category

6. What are fragile states? • Government cannot or will not deliver core functions to the majority of its people • State authority - state lacks clear international sovereign status (Somalia); cannot control its borders; one or more groups subjected to violence or not provided security (Sudan)

7. What are fragile states? • Effective political power - power of the executive not subject to controls (Zimbabwe); no effective channels for political participation (Burma) • Economic management - weak or partial financial management tools; no transparency in the public management of natural resource extraction (Angola, Lao PDR)

8. What are fragile states? • Administrative capacity to deliver services - the state levies less than 15% of GDP in tax; access to public services for spesific regions of the country deliberately limited

9. What are fragile states? • Categories of developing countries: • ’good performers’ capacity and political will • ’weak but willing’ with limited capacity • ’strong but unresponsive’ that may be repressive • ’weak-weak’ in terms of political will and capacity

10. Why fragile states matter? • Fragile states and poverty intertwined • MDGs cannot be met by 2015 if fragile states are not taken into account • ’Neighbourhood costs’ -> instability, refugee flows, growth reduced by 0,4% if a neighbour is fragile (Afganistan, DR Congo), terrorist havens • Costs of late response to crisis are high (average costs of a civil war 54 billion USD - including military expenditure and lives losts and economic growth forgone

11. Understanding fragile states • Political economy - need to understand reasons for state failure -> history, power relations, ’rules of the game’ and the relationship between these and formal institutions • Phenomenon of ’donor orphans’ (Central African Republic)

12. Case of Nepal • Nepals difficult political transition since 1990 movement; Maoist insurgency; harsh measures by security forces; structural problems; ethnic marginalisation; entrenched factional politics; quality of political governance extremely bad

13. Aid & fragile states • Failure to protect people and property -> increased security of the person and property -> improved policing of security (Albania), increased access to justice; providing safe operating environment for service delivery (Nepal - Basic Operational Guidelines); DDR

14. Aid and fragile states • Failure to deliver basic services -> substantial increase in infrastructure, primary education and health services to the poor -> working with both state and non-state service providers and ensure protection of service providers

15. Aid and fragile states • Decreasing livelihood security -> social protection for vulnerable households -> humanitarian assistance in conflict-affected areas; social protection programmes including employment, food security

16. Aid and fragile states • Weak public financial management -> improved management of natural resource revenue and capacity to manage shocks -> increased political commitment to transparent use of countries’ assets, international accountability arrangements (e.g. Kimberley process); early warning systems and capacity to predict and manage shocks

17. Finland’s policy responses • Development policy part of Finland’s security policy • Prevention of conflicts and post-conflict recovery increasingly important • Civilian crisis management • UN, OSCE, CoE, EU, AU as partners