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October 14, 2014

Agricultural. Market Outlook. October 14, 2014. University of Missouri Extension. Weather Outlook. Pat Guinan. October 14, 2014. A benign growing season for much of Missouri, and the Midwest…. Missouri Monthly Temperature Departure from Average* April 2014 – September 2014.

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October 14, 2014

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  1. Agricultural Market Outlook October 14, 2014 University of Missouri Extension

  2. Weather Outlook Pat Guinan October 14, 2014

  3. A benign growing season for much of Missouri, and the Midwest… Missouri Monthly Temperature Departure from Average* April 2014 – September 2014 climate.missouri.edu

  4. Statewide Average Temperature Ranks July 2014 Period: 1895-2014

  5. June2014 May2014 April 2014 August 2014 Sep 2014 July 2014

  6. Class A Pan Evaporation Apr-Sep (in.) HARC*, New Franklin, MO, 1956-2014 1980 Long-term average: 37.47 in. 1988 Highest water loss in 24 years 1956 1959 2012 2014 2008-11 *Horticulture and Agroforestry Research Center

  7. Departure from Normal Precipitation (in.) Oct 1-12, 2014 Source: Regional Climate Centers

  8. Precipitation (in.) Oct 1-12, 2014 Oct 1-13, 2014 Precipitation (in.) Troy 1.2NNE 10.70 New Franklin 1.8E 9.86 California 0.3SW 9.75 Clinton 0.9NNW 9.72 Smithville 3.4E 9.53 Columbia 8.9E 9.35 Cole Camp 3.5WNW 9.30 Purdy 4.8SSW 9.19 Source: Regional Climate Centers

  9. Winter Precipitation Outlook for Dec-Jan-Feb, 2014-15 Winter Temperature Outlook for Dec-Jan-Feb, 2014-15 Issued: Sep 18, 2014 Issued: Sep 18, 2014 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

  10. Weather Resources on the Internet http://agebb.missouri.edu/weather/wealinks.htm Missouri Climate Center http://climate.missouri.edu River Information Resources for Missouri http://agebb.missouri.edu/weather/river.htm

  11. Corn Outlook David Reinbott October 14, 2014

  12. Issues Impacting Prices • Record corn yield – 174.2 178.0? • Harvested acres down 1 – 2 million • Rebound in demand • Foreign corn production • Corn acres in 2015

  13. Sept To Oct Change Supply & Demand: Corn -700 T +2.5 +55 +80 +129 +50 +0 +0 +50 +79 -0.10

  14. Supply & Demand: Corn 2014-2015

  15. Dec 2014 Corn Futures

  16. Monthly Corn Futures

  17. Cattle Outlook (title) Cattle Outlook Ron Plain October 14, 2014

  18. Source: USDA/ERS

  19. 2014 per capita meat consumption the lowest since 1991 Source: USDA/ERS

  20. U.S. Calf, 1945-2014 2014: 33.6 million head, down 1.0% Smallest calf crop since 1948 Source: USDA/NASS

  21. U.S. Beef Imports & Exports as % of U.S. Production, monthly Source: USDA/ERS

  22. Year-to-date cattle slaughter is down 6.4% Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS

  23. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS

  24. Year-to-date cow slaughter is down 14.1% Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS

  25. Year-to-date heifer slaughter is down 8.2% Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS

  26. Female Share of SlaughterU.S. Federally Inspected Cattle Slaughter Year-to-date female slaughter is down 10.6% Source: USDA/AMS

  27. Cattle On Feed Sept 1 cattle on feed: down 0.8%

  28. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS

  29. Cost of Gain is roughly $70/cwt Source: LMIC

  30. U.S. Commercial Beef Production Million Pounds ----- % Change ----- 2013-142014-15. - 4.9% - 5.8% . - 5.1% + 1.3% . - 6.4% - 0.9% . - 4.7% - 1.4% . - 5.3% - 2.3% *forecast

  31. 5 Area Slaughter Steer PricesChoice Steers Per Live Hundredweight *forecast

  32. Nebraska Slaughter Steer Price, Monthly Average 2000-2014 Thru Feb 2016 all cattle futures contracts are above $156 per cwt

  33. OKC 750-800# Feeder Steer Price, Monthly Average 2000-2014 Thru Sep 2015 all feeder cattle futures contracts are above $230 per cwt

  34. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

  35. Soybean Outlook David Reinbott October 14, 2014

  36. Issues Impacting Prices • Record soybean yield – 47.1 48.0? • Harvested acres down 1 – 2 million • Rebound in demand • South America soybean acres • Soybean acres in 2015 • China exports

  37. Sept To Oct Change Supply & Demand: Soybean -600K +.5 -38 +14 +24 -0 -0 +0 -0 -25 -0.0

  38. Supply & Demand: Soybeans 2014-2015

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