The provision of mapped hazard data – availability and best practice in SE Asia Robert Muir-Wood & Owen Gough

1. The provision of mapped hazard data – availability and best practice in SE AsiaRobert Muir-Wood & Owen Gough OECD 2nd International Cat Risks Conference Bangkok, Sept 25th 2009

2. Agenda Best practices in the provision of hazard data Relevant perils in SE Asia Availability of mapped hazard data across SE Asia Implications of the hazard data deficit – where should provision and access now be focused?

3. Best Practices Key to tables Key to colours

4. Tsunamis Maximum wave heights along the WA coast for return periods of a) 100 years, b) 500 years, c) 1000 years, d) 2000 years

5. Earthquakes Screenshot of the information page showing the risk level of hazards, the checklist of suggested steps to prepare and the tabs to view flood and fire risk

6. Tropical Storms NHC map of the Gulf Coast showing return periods for Category 5 hurricanes

7. Storm Surges Example of 1% flood heights for the French Quarter, New Orleans

8. Floods Screenshot of map showing regions of likely flooding, extreme flooding and protected zones. Data on specific location risk is available by clicking on the map

9. Volcanoes Extract from hazard map for Mt. Rainier, Washington

10. Landslides Extract from the IFFI GIS map. Dark green areas are at risk from superficial landslides, Light green areas have COLAMENTO RAPIDO, Purple hatching represents urban development and Red areas have experienced collapse or tipping.

11. Survey of Hazard Informationin South East Asia Key to tables Key to colours

12. Countries included in the report

13. Bangladesh • Cyclone Sidr, November 2007 • Casualties: 3,300 • Losses: US$470million • Strongest Indian Ocean cyclone ever recorded • Caused massive storm surge devastating low land areas • Would have caused 100,000+ casualties had it not been for early evacuation

14. Cambodia • Severe Flooding, September-October 2000 • Casualties: 350 • Losses: US$160million • Large lengths of the Mekong River burst its banks • 22 out of 24 provinces were affected • More than 3.4million people displaced

15. Indonesia • Earthquake, 27th May 2006 • Casualties: 5,800 • Losses: US$3100million • Magnitude 6.2 event some 25km South-West of Yogyakarta • Despite relatively low intensity, extremely shallow depth meant it was very damaging • Most casualties in the Bantul district

16. Lao PDR • No major disasters have hit Lao PDR in the recent past

17. Malaysia • Severe Flooding, December-January 06/07 • Casualties: 118 • Losses: US$395million • Caused by extremely heavy rainfall from the remnants of Typhoon Utor • In some areas rainfall exceeded 10% of the total annual precipitation • 400,000 people displaced and evacuated

18. Myanmar • Cyclone Nargis, 2nd May 2008 • Casualties: Estimates range from 100,000 upwards • Losses: Estimated US$4billion-10billion • Most damage and casualties caused by storm surge • No accurate loss/casualty figures available • Several million left homeless

19. The Philippines • Typhoon Durian, 30TH November 2006 • Casualties: 730+ • Losses: US$1billion+ • Heavy rainfall caused huge mudslides down flanks of Mayon Volcano • Unlikely to ever determine full casualty and loss data as some areas buried under mud cannot be assessed

20. Singapore • Severe Flooding, December 1978 • Casualties: 7 • Losses: US$10million • Caused by extremely heavy monsoon rainfall • Several thousand residents evacuated and disrupted

21. Thailand • Indian Ocean Tsunami,26th December 2004 • Casualties: Estimates suggest 8,000+ • Losses: US$1.5billion • A tsunami, up to 30m high in some places, was generated by a magnitude 9.2 earthquake off the northern tip of Indonesia • Worst hit were popular tourist regions along the Andaman Sea coastline • Accurate casualty numbers are hard to determine as many bodies washed out to sea

22. Vietnam • Severe flooding, October-December 1999 • Casualties: 650 • Losses: US$800million • Caused by extremely heavy rainfall from several storms • 1.7million people displaced or otherwise affected • 55,000 people left homeless

23. Provision of earthquake hazard information

24. Provision of flood hazard information

25. Provision of landslide hazard information

26. Provision of tropical storm hazard information

27. Map of tsunami hazard information level

28. Provision of volcano hazard information

29. Background • The availability of mapped high res hazard data underpins sustained economic development • Informed risk management decisions need to be made at all levels of society: from individuals, communities, corporations, city administrations, regional and national governments • Hazard data needs to be disseminated – in particular online • Hazard data should be regularly updated where climate change is altering hazard levels or there is improved science • Data also needs to be generated for indicative future hazard – to inform long term planning/infrastructure decisions • Backed by strong risk education

30. Implications of the hazard information deficit • Cyclone Nargis in May 2007 highlighted the implications of a situation where hazard data is unavailable • No flood hazard maps in the Irrawaddy Delta • People did not know they lived in a storm surge flood zone • No evacuation plans • No monitoring of cyclone forecasts • As a result c 100,000 died – through an ‘information deficit’ • Economic and health consequences will endure for years