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Presented By: Dr. John P. McHenry President, Demographic Data For Decision-Making, Inc.

South Florida Demographics Part II How South Florida Compares To Its Metro Peers On Census 2000 Socio-Economic Status Indicators. Presented By: Dr. John P. McHenry President, Demographic Data For Decision-Making, Inc. 305-591-1224 demographicdata@bellsouth.net

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Presented By: Dr. John P. McHenry President, Demographic Data For Decision-Making, Inc.

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  1. South Florida Demographics Part IIHow South Florida Compares To Its Metro Peers On Census 2000 Socio-Economic Status Indicators

  2. Presented By: Dr. John P. McHenry President, Demographic Data For Decision-Making, Inc. 305-591-1224 demographicdata@bellsouth.net At theUrban Land Institute’s 2nd Annual State of the Region Economic Symposium, Broward County Convention Center: Thursday, November 7, 2002

  3. MSA Review

  4. History • In 1940’s, no countrywide statistical standard for “metropolitan” areas • Variety of definitions used • Bureau of Budget developed “standard metropolitan area” definition in time for 1950 U.S. Census

  5. General Metro Concept • “An area containing a recognized population nucleus and adjacent communities that have a high degree of integration with that nucleus.” • Source: Federal Register / Vol. 65, No. 249/Wednesday, December 27, 2000/ Notes

  6. Purpose of Metro Definition (According to Office of Management and Budget) • Provide nationally consistent definitions for collecting, tabulating, and publishing federal data • Definitions based on “applying published standards to Census data” • OK as info in debate on public policies or used for statistical comparisons

  7. Improper Use of Metro Definition(According to OMB) • Implement non-statistical programs • Determine program eligibility

  8. Other Considerations • General OMB concerns: • Definitions do not necessarily equate to urban/rural classification • Non-metro areas not all rural; • Metro areas not all urban • County-level definitions (Metro area components are counties) mask local variability and are too blunt a definitional instrument

  9. Changes in Metro Terminology • 1949 = Standard Metropolitan Area (SMA) • 1959 = Standard Metropolitan Statistical area (SMSA) • 1983 = Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) • 1990 = Metropolitan Area (MA), including, in order of increasing size by 1999: • MSA (Metropolitan Statistical Area), N=261 • PMSA (Primary Metropolitan Statistical Area), N=76 • CMSA (Consolidated Metropolitan Statistical Area), N=19 • 2003 (proposed) • MSA = Metropolitan Statistical Area (again) • CSA = Combined Statistical Area

  10. Census 2000: Top 50 MA’s

  11. South Florida MA’s • The Miami-Fort Lauderdale CMSA has the 12th largest population (3,876,380). • Comprised of Miami-Dade and Broward Counties • The West Palm Beach-Boca Raton MSA has the 45th largest population at 1,131,184 • Comprised solely of Palm Beach County

  12. And, In Terms of Inter-Censal Population Growth (1990-2000) • Miami-Fort Lauderdale ranks 11th nationally in absolute population increase (+683,798) and 15th in percentage population increase (21.4%), while • West Palm Beach ranks 45th nationally in absolute population increase (+267,666) and 7th in percentage increase (31.0%)

  13. Why Not A Combination of Miami-Fort Lauderdale & West Palm Beach-Boca:South Florida

  14. 2002-2003 OMB MSA/CSA Recommendations • The above proposed MSA/urbanized areas are a done deal. • The proposed CSA’s are “potential CSA’s.” • They are based on intermediate level C2000 commuting data. • They must be approved by Florida’s national Congressional Delegation which, in turn, is free to seek local opinion. • Our Congressional Delegation also has some naming rights (but the first name must be the name of the largest city in the proposed CSA). • Miami delegation has until the end of November, 2002 to send in its recommendations • There are multiple South Florida CSA possibilities, ranging from 3 to 5 to 6 or even a 7 county South Florida CSA.

  15. As A Combined MSA, South Florida Would Be …. • 10th nationally in population size at 5,007,564 • 6th nationally in inter-censal, absolute population growth at 951,464 • 14th nationally in inter-censal percentage population growth at 23.5% for a 2.11 annual, continuous growth rate • On our (revised) top 10 list of MSA’s by size, only one -- Dallas –Fort Worth-- is growing at a faster rate (29.3%)

  16. Top 10 Metro’s 1. New York 2. Los Angeles 3. Chicago 4. Washington D.C. 5. San Francisco 6. Philadelphia 7. Boston 8. Detroit 9. Dallas Other Important National and Regional Competitors 11. Houston 12. Atlanta 14* Greater Orlando 19* Greater Tampa 32* Las Vegas 35* New Orleans 45* Jacksonville 50+* Greater Naples In Graphs To Follow, We Compare South Florida’s Demographics To Those We Believe To Be Its Most Important Metro Competitors

  17. We Will Also Compare The Proposed Tri-County South Florida MSA To • 1990 Tri-County South Florida • 2000 U.S.A. averages

  18. And Since We Modified South Florida, In Fairness, We Modified Orlando, Tampa, and Naples

  19. South Florida (new Census/OMB definition) Broward Miami-Dade Palm Beach Jacksonville (no change) Clay Duval Nassau St. Johns Greater Naples Charlotte* Collier Lee* Greater Orlando Brevard* Flagler* Lake Orange Osceola Seminole Volusia* Greater Tampa Hernando Hillsborough Manatee* Pasco Pinellas Polk* Sarasota Revised Florida Metro/County Equivalents * = county added to “official MSA definition by DDD. The full 2003 updated metro list has not yet been officially released.

  20. Transportation Comparisons Commuting Hours Average Travel Time Mode Of Transportation

  21. Percent Early Rising Commuters: 12: A.M. to 5:59 A.M. (V151a) • Very few South Floridians start their commutes this early – 7% in 2000 and 6% in 1990. • The Las Vegas metro area is an outlier here with relatively high percentages commuting to work in the mid-night hours.

  22. Percent Prime-Time Commuters: 6:00 A.M. to 8:59 A.M. (V151b) • In 1990, 70.0% of South Floridian workers began their commute in prime time, but by 2000, the percentage has dropped to 67.3%. • Relatively few works in Las Vegas commute to work during prime time hours.

  23. Average Travel Time To Work (V141) • New York is the outlier at 34.1 minutes. • South Florida2000 commuters were ranked 8th at 28.2 minutes. • In 1990, South Florida commuters only averaged 23.0 minutes – so the traffic situation is clearly getting worse.

  24. Percent Take Car, Truck Or Van To Work, Alone (V136) • Here South Florida has slightly greater than average percentages of “lone commuters” in 2000 at 77.3%, up marginally from the 1990 percentage (76.1%) • However, South Florida rates are lower/better than all other Florida metros.

  25. Percent Workers Who Carpool In Car, Truck, Or Van (V137) • Slightly more South Florida2000 workers carpool (13.1%) than the U.S. average (12.2%) • But the 2000 percent is down from the South Florida1990 figure of 14.1% so we’re going the “wrong way” here.

  26. Percent Workers Take Public Transportation To Work (V138) • Relatively few South Floridians take public transportation to work (3.3% in 2000 down from 3.4% in 1990. • The New York metro is the obvious outlier here at 25%.

  27. Education • Public Versus Private • Educational Levels

  28. Percent Private School Attendees (V155) • South Florida private school percentages are slightly higher than average (20.0% in 2000, down from 20.5% in 1990). • Higher percentages are typically found for northeastern and/or heavily Catholic metros.

  29. Percent Age 25+ With Less Than Complete High School Education (V160) • Unfortunately, South Florida2000 has the 2nd highest percentage (23.8%) of poorly educated (didn’t complete high school) persons. • We improved, somewhat, from South Florida1990 which had an even worse percentage -- 28.1%

  30. Percent Age 25+ With Some College Or Higher Education (V162) • South Florida does not fair well at the upper end of the educational spectrum with the 5th lowest college plus percentage (50.8%). • Still, this is a marked improvement over the 1990 percentage (44.5%). • San Francisco is an outlier on this variable, with very high educational attainment.

  31. Labor Force • Civilian Participation Rate • Unemployment Rate

  32. Civilian Participation Rate (V171) • Defined as: (pop age 16+ employed – military pop + pop age 16+ unemployed and looking for work)/(pop age 16+ - military pop ) • Because of its aging population, South Florida has the one of the lower civilian participation rates at 58.7% in 2000, down from 62.1% in 1990. • Naples is a metro outlier with much lower civilian participation rates due, most likely to its large number of retirees.

  33. Unemployment Rate (V172) • South Florida2000 has the 4th highest unemployment rate (6.7%), trailing Los Angeles (7.4%), New Orleans (6.8%) and virtually tied with New York. • South Florida1990 rate was moderately lower at 6.4%

  34. Income/Poverty • Overall Residential Market • Average Household Income • Percent In Poverty

  35. Aggregated Annual Household Income (V1) • South Florida household market = $110 Billion per year • South Florida ranked 10th – same as population ranking • Rank tends to follow population counts • The New York metro area market is an outlier.

  36. Average Annual Income Per Household (V2) • South Florida ($57,936) is just above the U.S. average of $56,644. • Naples is just ahead of South Florida, all other Florida metros lag behind

  37. Percent Below Poverty Level • South Florida2000’s poverty rate of 14.0% is the third highest metro rate and slightly higher than the 13.7% for 1990. • The New Orleans metro area is an outlier on this indicator.

  38. Immigrants • Recent Levels • Percent Foreign Born • Percent Citizens • Language Issues

  39. International Migration: 1995-2000 (V42) • South Florida2000 leads all metros with its international migration rate of 7.4%, up moderately from the 6.1% registered over the 1985-1990 interval. • Note – the base for these percentages is the total population (age 5+). An earlier slide used a “total migrant population” as the base.

  40. Percent Foreign Born Population (V27) • South Florida2000 is #1 at 35%, followed by metros in major U.S. ports. • Our percentage is up considerably over South Florida1990 (29%). • Note that we have more than 3 times the U.S. average of 11%

  41. Percent Of Foreign Born That Have Become Citizens (V28) • This is a decent proxy for assimilation. • South Florida2000, at 46%, is ranked 6th -- a very good score. None of the higher ranked metros are major immigrant destinations. • We have made a major improvement over the South Florida1990 score of 39%.

  42. Language Capabilities • English Speakers Only • English Language Ability Of Those Whose Primary Language Is Not English

  43. English Speaking Only (V49) • Only Los Angeles (53%) has lower percentages of “English only” speakers. • And South Florida’s percentage has dropped dramatically from 64% in 1990 to 55% in 2000.

  44. Of Those Who, At Home, Speak A Language Other Than English – What Percent Speaks English “Not Very Well” Or “Not At All” (V51b) • Unfortunately, 27% of South Floridians who “speak a language other than English at home” respond that they speak English “not very well” or “not at all” so we have the fifth worst score on this measure. • This percentage is a slight improvement over the higher 29% figure of 1990. • Metros with higher percentages tend to be those with recent immigrant population waves from Mexico (Dallas, Atlanta, Los Angeles, Houston).

  45. Population Mobility/Migration • Same house (non-mobility) • Different house/same county • Different house/different county/same state • Different house/different state

  46. Percent Of Non-Movers in Population: 1995-2000 (V37) • Half of South Floridian’s remained in their same homes from 1995 to 2000. • This represents an increase in stability over the South Florida1990 figure of 45%. • The current U.S. average is 54%, so South Floridians are more mobile than the average U.S. citizens.

  47. Intra-County Migration: 1995-2000 (V39) • South Florida2000 has a high rate of intra-county migration (29.5%), almost the same as its 1990 level of 30.1%, with a 4th place ranking – behind three western metros (Los Angeles, Las Vegas, and Houston). • This reinforces our notions of widespread movement within South Florida from established eastern housing units to newly developed housing units on the west sides of our counties.

  48. Inter-County/Same State Migration: 1995-2000 (V40) • South Florida ranks very low on “inter-county/same state” migration (6% in 2000 up marginally from 5% in 1990. • Apparently very few Floridians step-migrate down to South Florida. • Las Vegas is an outlier with much less inter-county migration than any other region. • The Atlanta region is an outlier with much more inter-county migration migration than any other region.

  49. Interstate Migration: 1995-2000 (V41) • South Floridians show “average” rates of interstate migration (8.5%) compared to U.S. average of 8.4% for the 1995-2000 interval. • The South Florida2000 rate has dropped considerably from the South Florida 1985-1990 rate of 14%, indicating a decline in our attractiveness to potential out-of-state migrants. • The metros ahead of us include Las Vegas, Atlanta, Washington D.C., Dallas, and all our Florida competitor metros. • Las Vegas is an outlier here, with much higher interstate migration than any other metro area.

  50. Housing • Type of Housing Unit • Home Ownership By Race • Occupancy/Vacancy Info

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