Ecological Mega-Concerns

1. Ecological Mega-Concerns • Slides for the poster display – R5 - PPT • For Foundation Earth. G H Boyle 130513

2. Poster Construction Package To construct the Poster Boards follow these instructions. • Adust the “Foundation Earth” placeholders and make any other desired changes. • Save three copies of this file; • A complete copy • A small slides copy • A large slides copy • Decide which six slides will be large, and which 16 will be small. An example is provided. • Delete the appropriate slides from each of the “small” and “large” files, dividing the 22 slides into two sets of files for print. • Take the two files to Staples. Have the small slides printed on 8.5” x 11” 65 pound poster board, dull or glossy finish. Have the large slides printed on 11” x 17” 65 pound poster board. • Buy two three-panel poster display boards, and fasten the slides.

6. 01 Global Ecological Mega-Concerns An Outline Of The Causal Network In affiliation with “Foundation Earth” PURPOSES: • To visually explore the system dynamics in the causal network that has led to the current panoply of global ecological mega-concerns; • To gain a better understanding of the global dynamic mechanisms that are shaping the future of the modern world; and • To seek assistance in documenting this causal network in more detail through identification of peer-reviewed science in support of the details. G H Boyle, 130514

7. OVERVIEW 02 A Human Population Overshoot High Consumption LifestylesIn Energy-Rich and Soil-Rich Nations Overconsumption of Renewables, Destruction of Renewable Funds c/d The Changing Air / Water / Landscape Imminent Exhaustion of Non-Renewable Stores - Energy, Metals and Minerals B d c F Anthropogenic Climate Change E Overflow of Waste Beyond the Earth’s Ability to Absorb It I Maturing Social Evolution g Increasing Global Ecological Fragility,With Decreasing Global Human Carrying Capacity h Increasing Exhaustion of Technological Props

8. 03 Methodology STEPS: • Select a primary causal force - the exploitation of fossil fuels. • Select a (somewhat arbitrary) starting date – James Watt and the Newcomen engine. • Organize global mega-concerns under nine major classifications in nine panels. • Make detailed causality linkages between items within and between panels. • Write a story that describes the linkages. • From the detailed panels, draft these simplified panels for the poster display. • Seek comments, corrections, discussion. I have seen wonders and marvels that no person will EVER see again. 90% of Carribean coral cover is now dead. G H Boyle, 130514

9. A 04 Human Population Overshoot Population/Complexity Feedback Loop Population/Food/Technology Feedback Loop I Increasing size and complexity of social institutions E.g. justice, health care, education, infrastructure, finance Increasing population Increasing food production Increasing amounts of energy and technology for agricultural production Increasing research into science and technology B CDE Increasing exploitation of the environment Increasing per capita consumption of environment Increasing extraction of fossil fuel energy 1756 – James Watt kickstarts the modern era when he improves the Newcomen steam engine used for coal mining. START HERE Exploitation of fossil fuels enables a human population surge and a technological surge.

10. 05 About Panels A and B Panel B • In this panel we see two positive feedback loops that I have named “Consumer Growth” and “Economic Competition”. • The growth loop was most evident at first, but the competition loop became dramatically effective in the post-60s period. • Note that these loops imply an ever increasing throughput of mass and energy on a per-capita basis, leading to panels C, D and E, and ultimately back to A. • But, ultimately, the competition loop must dominate, and middle class is squeezed, leading to Panel I. Panel A • The orange circle represents a positive feedback loop – more energy produces more food, which results in more people, and around it goes. • The high flow of energy also enables a dramatic increase in complexity of social institutions. • Another positive feedback loop from panels B, C, D and Ealso enables an ever-increasing per capita consumption of the environment. • Ultimately the evolution of social institutions leads to a Nash equilibrium in which further development is dysfunctional, as indicated in Panel I.

11. High Consumption LifestylesIn Energy-Rich and Soil-Rich Nations 06 B Consumer Growth Feedback Loop Economic Competition Feedback Loop I Creative destruction of capital A Rising wages and living standards Drive downcosts Rising unemployment & falling wages and living standards Rising expectations Accelerating per-capita consumption of energy-intensive foods and non-durable consumer goods Rising per-capita consumption of energy Drive down quality and durability Drive out jobs Drive down wages CDE The technological surge enables an extremely high-consumption lifestyle.

12. C Imminent Exhaustion of Non-Renewable StoresEnergy, Metals and Minerals 07 Energy Production Cost Feedback Loop Metals and Minerals Production Cost Feedback Loop Rising Need for Transformative Technologies Falling Energy Returned on Energy Invested Rising Energy Costs for Extraction Rising Energy Costs for Discovery and Research Rising Energy Demand AB Rising Resource Demand AB Best and Easiest Coal, Oil and Gas First Best and Easiest Metals and Minerals Ultimate De Facto Depletion F AB AB Some resources cannot be renewed in commercial time scales.

13. C/d The Changing Air/Water/Landscape 08 CFCs POPs & Grasshopper Effect AB AIR Altered Atmospheric Chemistry GHGs CD Conversion of Farm Lands to Urban and Recreational Uses E F G Forest Lands AB Conversion of Wild Lands to Farm Lands LAND Coastal Plains Degradation & Pollution of Soils CD Desert Lands Loss or Fragmentation of Wild Habitats Dissapearance of Glaciers and Polar Ice Dessicated Rivers and Depleted Aquifers AB Oceanic Warming and Acidification WATER Oceanic Accumulation of Plastics and Micro-Plastics CD Rising Ocean Levels Collapse of Coral Reefs and all Oceanic Trophic Networks Air, water and land usage follow trends that cannot be reversed in historical time scales without a significant reduction of population and associated energy consumption.

14. 09 About Panels C, C/D and D Panel D • In this panel we see again a few examples of the “Tragedy of the Commons” playing out on a global scale. • To call any of the Earth’s resources “renewable” implies that we do not destroy the ability to renew. • The whirling engines of consumption and destruction depicted in panels A and B are causing the renewable funds from which nature’s blessings are generated to be extinguished. • The outcome of our unrestrained consumption is depicted in Panels E, F and G. Panel C • The two orange circles represent two positive feedback loops driving the increased consumption of energy. • In both loops, demand comes from Panels A and B and the output goes to A and B, but it takes energy to make energy, and it takes energy to extract resources. The energy cost of discovery and extraction is rising, as is the cost of research into transformative technologies. Panel C/D • Here we see the changing landscape of the global commons. We see the “Tragedy of the Commons” playing out irreversibly on a massive scale. • Oceanic acidification and oceanic warming are both PLANET KILLERS. The chemical pathways of life in oceanic biota evolved in a constant temperature at a constant level of acidity. They do not function in a warmer, more acidic environment. The oceans will be dead shortly and the oxygen replenishment cycle will be disrupted.

15. Overconsumption of Renewables, Destruction of Renewable Funds D 10 52% Fully Exploited Significant Habitat Destruction AB FISH 19% Over-Exploited 08% Depleted E F G Reductions in Forest Lands AB FOREST Reductions in Forest Products, Habitat, Flora and Fauna http://www.fao.org/forestry/fra/41256/en/ Declining Levels of Oxygen Eight Major Rivers Often Fail to Reach Ocean: Colorado, Rio Grande, Yangtze, Indus, Ganges, Amu Darya, Murray, Nile Ogallala Aquifer To Be Depleted in 25 Years Water Shortages in Asia, Africa, North America, Australia E F G AB WATER Equitorial Deserts Set to Expand Renewable resource usage follows trends that cannot be reversed in historical time scales.

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17. E Overflow of Waste Beyond the Earth’s Ability to Absorb It 12 Ozone Depletion from CFCs Bioaccumulation of Toxins A B C D Contaminated Waters from Mine Tailings MASSIVE FLOW OF WASTE GASES, CHEMICALS, METALS, MINERALS, DRUGS, PLASTICS, BIOLOGICAL WASTES AND NON-DURABLE CONSUMER PRODUCTS G Oceanic Acidification Oceanic Dead Zones and Algal Blooms Plastics &Micro-Plastics in Remote Ocean Waters Industrial Agriculture and Aquaculture Wastes Urban LandFill, Contaminated Land Global Warming from GHGs F Acid Rain & Destruction of Infrastructure Oceanic Warming Global waste disposal systems are becoming overwhelmed, disrupted and/or clogged with anthropogenic products.

18. OVERVIEW 13 A High Consumption LifestylesIn Energy-Rich and Soil-Rich Nations Human Population Overshoot B Overconsumption of Renewables, Destruction of Renewable Funds c/d The Changing Air / Water / Landscape Imminent Exhaustion of Non-Renewable Stores - Energy, Metals and Minerals d c F Anthropogenic Climate Change E Overflow of Waste Beyond the Earth’s Ability to Absorb It I Maturing Social Evolution g Increasing Global Ecological Fragility,With Decreasing Global Human Carrying Capacity h Increasing Exhaustion of Technological Props

19. 14 About Panels H and I In these two panels we see the roots of our inability to react: CAN TECHNOLOGY SAVE US? • We are now facing the unintended consequences of our technological advances, and those technologies are beginning to fail from overuse or lack of energy. • We MUST stop producing GHGs immediately, but then, billions will die of starvation. CAN OUR POLITICAL MASTERS SAVE US? • Our social institutions have become exceedingly complex, unmanageable, ponderous, deadlocked, amoral, and unresponsive to need.

20. F1 Anthropogenic Climate Change 15 Decomposing Permafrost Feedback Loop Albedo Effect Feedback Loop More Permafrost Melts Less Sunlight Reflected from Earth Additional Warming of Atmosphere Reduced Ice Coverage in Polar Ice Caps and Glaciers Long-Frozen Vegetation Decomposes Additional GHGs Released Additional Warming of Atmosphere Tipping Point Yet Faster Rise Humanity’s Products and Activities Faster Rise F2 C E Rising Fossil Fuel Consumption Rising GHG Production Rising Global Temperatures Global climate is now warming rapidly in response to humanity’s products and activities. When natural positive feedback loops kick in, it will be uncontrollable.

21. F2 Anthropogenic Climate Change 16 Storms increase in number and intensity Droughts increase in number and intensity Increased erosion of soils from farmland Increased sediments in coastal waters, killing biota Increased ocean acidification, killing biota G As global temperatures rise, there will be a wide variety of climatic changes, with dramatic effects. F1 Increased ocean warming, killing biota Expansion of global desert belts, reducing farmland Sea level rise, inundating island and coastal areas Northward migration of temperate climatic zones Massive disruption of migratory instincts Massive reorganization of trophic networks Items marked with an asterisk are already well underway. After we pass the tipping point, recovery is not possible; the extinction-level event cannot be stopped.

22. 17 F3 Tipping Point? Restorative Forces GHGs Perma- Frost Albedo Our global climate has been stable because the climatic dynamics have been restorative of the status quo. However, the GHGs may push the temperature to a point at which the albedo effect, and then the decomposing permafrost become drivers for change that overwhelm the restorative dynamics.

23. 18 About Panels E, F and G Atmospheric Warming Oceanic Warming GHGs Oceanic Acidification Oceanic Death Atmospheric experts believe we will pass the tipping point at some time in this decade (next seven years), if we have not passed it already. The albedo effect has already kicked in, magnifying the effects of GHGs. The albedo effect may be self-sustaining, and will continue to warm the planet until long after the polar ice is gone. The perma-frost will take a while to melt, but when it starts to decompose, that cycle will be self-sustaining.

24. G Increasing Global Ecological Fragility,With Decreasing Global Human Carrying Capacity 19 LOSS OF BIODIVERSITY ENGINES: CORAL REEFS RAIN FORESTS WILD GRASSLANDS POLLUTION-DRIVEN CHANGES TO ECOSYSTEMS SHRINKING RANGES AND HIGH RATES OF LOCAL EXTIRPATIONS HIGH RATES OF GLOBAL EXTINCTIONS DESTRUCTION OR COLLAPSE OF LOCAL ECOSYSTEMS IRREVERSIBLE LOSS OF BIODIVERSITY AT KEY TROPHIC LEVELS WITHOUT A STEADY FLOW OF FOSSIL FUELS, THE EARTH WAS ABLE TO SUPPORT ONLY A SMALL FRACTION OF THE CURRENT GLOBAL HUMAN POPULATION ----------///---------- HOW MANY WILL IT SUPPORT WHEN WE HAVE FOULED IT? HOW MANY WILL IT SUPPORT IF THE OCEANIC BIOTA DIE? Ecological fragility increases with loss of complexity. A complex trophic network is needed to keep an ecosystem robust. Recovery is in geologic time scales. We will probably not survive this ELE if we allow it to continue.

25. H Increasing Exhaustion of Technological Props 20 DECLINING ENERGY RETURNED ON ENERGY INVESTED FOR ALL ENERGY SOURCES DECLINING SUPPLY OF ENERGY – WITH RATIONING TO CRITICAL ACTIVITIES D FAILED PROMISE OF ALTERNATE ENERGY SOURCES ? - Herbicide, fungicide and pesticide-resistant organisms arise - Fertilizer production is energy-intensive - Unfulfilled demand for energy-intensive agricultural inputs, and related research - Antibiotic-resistant organisms rise - Unfulfilled demand for medical research, and disease control products and measures - Massive urban and intra-urban infrastructures built with cheap energy and having short life spans are due for replacement. - Unfulfilled demand for infrastructure replacement resources AGRICULTURAL INPUTS ENERGY COSTS OF EXTRACTIONS INFRASTRUCTURE MAINTENANCE - Inability of water treatment plants to remove biomedical residuals - Inability of regulators to screen new chemicals - Rising sensitivity of population to environmental contaminants - Unfulfilled demand for pollution control research, and pollution control measures DRUG AND CHEMICAL OVERLOAD DISEASE CONTROL FAILURE - Energy cost of extraction of coal, oil, gas, metals and minerals rising - Unfulfilled demand for research to find “TRANSFORMATIVE TECHNOLOGIES” to produce massive efficiencies Our technological marvels have made this a better world. But they are fueled by energy. Lack of energy will force difficult decisions about resource allocations.

26. I Maturing Social Evolution 21 MANY LIBERAL DEMOCRACIES DEADLOCKED IN NASH EQUILIBRIA TRANSNATIONAL CORPORATIONS ECLIPSE NATIONS SOCIOPATHIC BEHAVIOUR DOMINATES GLOBAL ACTIVITIES UNMANAGEABLE TRADE IMBALANCES AND SOVEREIGN DEBT LOADS DECLINING RESPECT FOR INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL CONTROL MECHANISMS: E.G. WTO, IMF, WORLD BANK MANY SOCIAL INSTITUTIONS OVERLY COMPLEX, EXPENSIVE AND UNRESPONSIVE TO NEED: E.G. HEALTH, EDUCATION, JUSTICE, GOVERNMENT, FINANCE AB DISENFRANCHISED YOUTH DENIED ACCESS TO ADULT SOCIETY EN MASSE DECLINING RESPECT FOR ELITES: POLITICIANS, DOCTORS, LAWYERS, BUSINESS LEADERS, SCIENTISTS FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC SYSTEMS DISASSOCIATE OVERBURDENED HEALTH CARE SYSTEMS WANING INFLUENCE IN WESTERN CULTURE OF: - SCIENCE WORLD VIEW - MORAL STANDARDS AND RULE OF LAW - POLITICAL DEBATE RISING INFLUENCE OF EXTREMIST IDEALOGIES IN POLITICS, IN RELIGION, IN ECONOMICS, IN FINANCE Social dynamics, operating on a previously unseen global scale, are driving the evolution of our local, national, corporate and international societies towards an unwanted climax.

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