NCEP UCAR Review (updated version from AMS presentation)

1. NCEP UCAR Review(updated version from AMS presentation) Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director, National Centers for Environmental Prediction “Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin” October 6, 2009

2. Overview • Motivation for Review • Define NCEP • Organization and Staff • Introduce Office of Director • Strategic Alignment with Seamless Suite of Products • Collaborative Efforts • Service/Science Linkage: Test Beds • NCEP Budget/Planning Process • Large Projects • R2O • Forces for Change • Summary

3. Motivation for Review • NCEP is considered a “National Resource” and a “National Treasure”… • Needs to be treated as such • Outside review is essential • Last overall review spanned a five year period between 1997-2002 • NCEP has been aggressive in responding to reviews • Time is now to initiate a new cycle in the review process • Prefer reviewing NCEP in its entirety; rather than sequential center by center reviews

4. Why Now? • We Are at a Strategic Crossroad • Some who believe we should expand the predictive capabilities from the traditional weather and climate into new areas (e.g., ecosystems) • Others feel we should stick to our core abilities (i.e., weather and short-term climate) • We Have a New Strategic Plan • Based on internal and external input • Based on new approaches • Multi-model ensembles, community modeling, etc. • We Are Moving Into a New Facility • We Are Entering a New Era

5. Define NCEP

6. NCEP Supports the NOAA Seamless Suite of Climate Weather and Ocean Products Organization: Central component of NOAA’s National Weather Service Mission: NCEP delivers science-based environmental predictions to the nation and the global community. We collaborate with partners and customers to produce reliable, timely, and accurate analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy. Aviation Weather Center NCEP Central Operations Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center Space Weather Prediction Center Total FTE: 431 167 Contractors/61 Visitors 5 NOAA Corps Storm Prediction Center Tropical Prediction Center Vision:The Nation’s trusted source, first alert and preferred partner for environmental prediction services

8. NCEP Office of Director Louis Uccellini Director Mark Moran Chief Science Officer Dennis Staley Executive Officer Sue Perrotta Administrative Officer Lauren Morone Operations Officer Barbara Eubanks Secretary Adena Fritz Asset Manager Keesha Johnson Supporting Secretary Kim Montgomery Budget Officer

9. NCEP Office of Director

10. Introduce Office of Director

11. NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather Outlook Guidance Threats Assessments Forecast Lead Time Forecasts Watches Warnings & Alert Coordination Benefits Service Center Perspective Forecast Uncertainty Years Seasons Seasonal Predictions Months Week 2 Hazards Assessment CPC 2 Week Climate/Weather Linkage 6-10 Day Forecast 1 Week NDFD, Days 4 -7 HPC OPC TPC Days Winter Weather Desk Days 1-3 Tropical Storms to Day 5 Severe Weather to Day 8 Fire Weather Outlooks to Day 8 : SPC AWC SWPC Hours Minutes Health Maritime Aviation Agriculture Recreation Commerce Ecosystem Hydropower Environment Fire Weather Life & Property Emergency Mgmt Energy Planning Space Operations Reservoir Control

12. NWS Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather Outlook Guidance Threats Assessments Forecast Lead Time Forecasts Watches Warnings & Alert Coordination Benefits NCEP Model Perspective Forecast Uncertainty Years Seasons Months Climate Forecast System* 2 Week North American Ensemble Forecast System Climate/Weather Linkage 1 Week Global Forecast System Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Days Ocean Model Hurricane Models North American Forecast Hours Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation • GFDL • WRF Dispersion Models for DHS Minutes Health Maritime Aviation Agriculture Recreation Commerce Ecosystem Hydropower Environment Fire Weather Life & Property Emergency Mgmt Energy Planning Space Operations Reservoir Control

13. Increasing Collaboration Within NCEP Service Centers and the NWS • AWC/SPC/CWSUs • CCFP • SPC/WFO • Watch “by county” • HPC/WFO • Winter Weather Desks • Medium Range: Days 4-7/NDFD • TPC/HPC/WFO • Hurricane “Hot Line” • AWC/WFO/CWSU • Collaborative Convective Forecast Product • CPC/SPC/HPC Regions/WFO/RFC • Hazard Assessment • Seasonal outlooks/CTB • OPC/TPC/WFO • Near shore  High seas • HPC-TPC-OPC-AR-PR • Unified Surface Analysis! • SWPC/AWC • Solar/Aviation Products

14. Model Assessment: Engaging the Outside Community • EMC Planning Meeting (each December) • SSD Chiefs, NCEP Service Center reps and “outside” participants attend • Review assessments • Provide priorities for current and next fiscal year • Influence next year’s implementations • Regions and outside participants have opportunity to assess all implementations • Participants decide which to take part in

15. Model Assessment: Engaging the Outside Community • Expanded participation during recent years • NCEP Centers • NWS Regions • University Community • Private Sector • Mailing list maintained for notifications of upcoming major changes • Notification is provided to mailing list of upcoming evaluation periods including due dates • Parallel data sets are made available to those who agree to participate • Completed evaluations submitted by due date are used as input to decision on implementation

16. Management Support for Increasing NWS Interactions with NCEP Examples: • Ongoing support for including regional view in new NCEP Strategic Plan • Visiting forecaster program • 9 forecasters visited HPC in 2008 • Considering visiting forecast program for OPC • Spring experiment in Norman • Active inclusion of field forecasters

17. EMC WRF Developmental Test Center, Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation CPC Climate Test Bed TPC Joint Hurricane Test Bed HPC Hydrometeorological Test Bed SPC Hazardous Weather Test Bed with NSSL SWPC Space Weather Prediction Test Bed (with AFWA) AWC Aviation Weather Test Bed (Being developed) OPC linked with EMC’s Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch Test BedsService – Science Linkage with the Outside Community

18. Budget / Planning Process

19. Internal Planning ProcessCentered Around NOAA’s PPBES NOAA Strategic Plan NWS Strategic Plan NCEP Strategic Plan Individual Center Multi-Yr Implementation Plans NCEP Operating Plan Center Executive Summaries NCEP Technical Operating Plan Individual Performance Plans

20. NCEP Technical Operating PlansMapping Resources to Goals ANNUAL OPERATING PLAN GPRA NOAA GOALS EXECUTIVE SUMMARIES NWS GOALS NCEP GOALS (Strategic Goals) NCEP GOALS (Strategic Goals) KEY DELIVERABLES NTOP ELEMENTS MILESTONES BUDGET ALLOCATION

21. NCEP Technical Operating Plan (NTOP) Internal Planning Timeline Final NTOP When Budget is Allocated Performance Measures Goals/Objectives Milestones Resources ($$/People) Annual Operating Plan NTOPS 1st draft Executive Summary Identify Agency Milestones Nov. Dec. Late Sept. Mid Sept Early Sept. Aug. Apr. NCO Review Dec. EMC Review Internal Coordination Corporate Board Planning Meeting Question: How Are We Mapping This NTOP Process Into Individual Performance Plans?

22. BudgetHistorical Base Funding (Direct Appropriation) * Another $10-$15M Other Funding Sources

23. % of NCEP BudgetContributing to NOAA Strategic Plan Goals 6% CPC 38% EMC, NCO Supercomputing 45% HPC, SPC, TPC, SWPC, NCO OR&F * 11% AWC OPC * Emerging Area • EMC and NCO Supercomputing Recently Moved to NOAA Mission Support • NCEP working on Ecosystem White Paper with NOS, OAR and other NOAA components to initiate participation in ecosystem goal

24. LargeProjects

25. New Building Computer Upgrade AWIPS2 Transition NEMS Multi-model ensembles For extreme events, e.g., severe and winter wx Satellite data assimilation through JCSDA “Decision Support” HFIP / WRF-DTC CFS Upgrade: Reanalysis/Reforecast Global HYCOM (w/Navy) Preparing for Solar Max with Reorganized SWPC NextGen Air Transportation System Modernization OCONUS support Air Quality Large Projects

26. NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction Defined requirements for 268,762 RSF Includes housing 800+ Federal employees, contractors, and visiting scientists 5 NCEP Centers NESDIS research and satellite services OAR Air Resources Laboratory Includes 40 spaces for research community Revised Construction Schedule

27. NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction December, 2008 December, 2007 Main Entrance Court Yard August, 2009 Main Entrance Auditorium Court Yard

28. NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center (in background) NORTH

29. R2O

30. NOAA Research and Development Funnel • NOAA is working on: • Research to Operations Policy (complete) • An overarching view of NOAA's research and development that provides criteria for research location • A better understanding of how to apportion resource allocations

31. Schematics in the Model Transition Process EMC and NCO have critical roles in the transition from NOAA R&D to operations Other Agencies & International Effort Service Centers Field Offices EMC NOAA Research NCO EMC ASI, COLA, ARCS Observation System Life cycle Support Service Centers User OPS Test Beds JCSDA CTB WRF DTC JHT Operations R&D Delivery Operations to Research Transition from Research to Operations Launch List – Model Implementation Process Concept of Operations Requirements Criteria Forecast benefits, Efficiency, IT Compatibility, Sustainability

32. Applying the “Funnel” to the Transition Process 1. Large “volume” of R&D, funded through AOs, Agency Labs… 2. Smaller set of R&D products suitable for operations. 3. Systematic transition steps Research-to-Operations (R2O). Deliver skill-optimized forecast products founded on CTB-based innovation and& customer feedback; Bring in customer requests 4. Systematic transition steps Operations-to-Applications (O2A). 5. Delivery of products to the diverse community and customer feedback 2 R2O NCEP is well positioned to provide an operational infra-structure for the transition processes N C E P 1 R&D Community CTB CPC O2R 3 EMC CFS OPERATIONS 4 R2O O2A User Community 5 CTB role: facilitate transitions for the CPC specific product range (6-10 day, week 2, monthly, seasonal)

33. GPRA Performance Measure CFS (v1.0) implemented Climate Prediction Advances at NCEP (CFS / CTB) Contributed to improved Forecast Skill (0.5 Month Lead – 4 Year Running Average vs. GPRA Goal) Increases in skill of CPC official outlooks: 20% or more (O’Lenic et al 07) FY09 Goal: 20 48-mo Running Mean: 27 FY10 Goal: 21 Upward Adjustments planned, but depend on implementation time line for CFS v2, etc. CTB Spun up

34. Forces for Change • Increasing emphasis on multi-model ensemble approaches that build on the NCEP model suite; run at highest possible resolution • SREF • NAEFS • Climate Forecast System/Service • Entering the NPOESS era • More rapid access to hyperspectral data • Increasing IT security: Address related vulnerabilities • All models run as coupled Earth system models within ESMF • Models run concurrently • Applied to Ecosystems, Health……. • Community Model Approach (NUOPC;WRF) • AWIPS2 – Converging NWS applications software systems ESMF-based System Global/Regional Model Domain Model Region 1 Model Region 2

35. Summary • NCEP is: • Strategically aligned with NOAA’s “seamless suite” of products from the “Sun to the Sea” • Working with NOAA on expanded responsibilities (e.g, oceans air and water quality, ecology,…); success is based on interdisciplinary approach • A critical transition agent in the NOAA “research to operations” process involving observations, data assimilation, modeling, and service delivery • Actively pursuing opportunities for collaboration in research, transition to operations and operational production and delivery of services (both nationally and internationally) • Still consider NCEP to be an underutilized entity by the research and operational communities