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NCEP Review

NCEP Review. James Nelson Anchorage WFO 12/7/2011. What we like. New NAM is performing well over the forecast area in the recent storms - subjective HPC long range support has been very good. The stats have bore this result. Extra-Tropical Storm Surge Data Gridded MOS Ice Drift Forecasts

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NCEP Review

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  1. NCEP Review James Nelson Anchorage WFO 12/7/2011

  2. What we like • New NAM is performing well over the forecast area in the recent storms - subjective • HPC long range support has been very good. The stats have bore this result. • Extra-Tropical Storm Surge Data • Gridded MOS • Ice Drift Forecasts • WRF-RR – Aviation and short-term • Possible use in RTMA when it gets spun up operationally

  3. Needs/Wants • NCO • GFS 3hr output • WRF-RR output for AK • NAM Nests • NAEFS products • MMB • Near-Shore Wave Modeling over the Fjords of Southeast and through Prince William Sound. Currently working with Andre. • Ice Model with evaluation from Alaska Ice Desk possibly working with NIC.

  4. Collaborative Possibilities • SPC • Collaboration with Aviation Unit on their Convective Outlook Product for Alaska • Fire Wx threats • CPC • Threats page participation • OPC • Collaboration on grids/forecast • Volcanic Ash

  5. Notes • Under-dispersive GEFS in high impact events - subjective • 18z run of GFS in our domain is a poor performer – subjective • Therefore, reducing the effectiveness of the 12Z NAM due to boundary condition contamination • SREF data ok with Aviation parameters.

  6. Significant Rain Event • Large Precipitation Event – October 25-26 • Models significantly underforecasted the event • Brings to the forefront of the predictability of significant rainfall events. • Models generally were half the amount that was observed.

  7. Odd Find – Marine Verification • Looking over our Marine Verification we decided to try some other stats and break them down • Found some odd features over Alaska • GFS model performance improvements varied from North to South

  8. “EPIC” Bering Storm • Guidance was good. • Mentions of the large storm were highlighted up to 5 days in advance with Emergency Manager briefing (Happens every Friday) • Continued performance was there as well with intensity forecast. • ETSS was a big help and graphics were very useful to push to the public.

  9. Damage • Locations with Maximum Wind Gusts of at least Hurricane-force (official values unless noted): • Cape Lisburne 81 mph at 700 AM AKST Wed Nov 9 • Gambell 74 mph at 600 PM AKST Tue Nov 8 • Kotzebue 74 mph at 600 AM AKST Wed Nov 9 • Little Diomede (Unofficial) 93 mph late Tue night Nov 9 • Point Hope 78 mph at 500 AM AKST Wed Nov 9 • (incomplete due to power outage; an unofficial maximum is 85 mph) • Savoonga76 mph at 700 PM AKST Tue Nov 8 • Tin City 85 mph at 1200 AM AKST Wed Nov 9 • Wales 89 mph at 142 AM AKST Wed Nov 9

  10. Locations with Maximum Wind Gusts of 55 to 73 mph (official values): • Cape Romanzof 60 mph at 300 AM AKST Wed Nov 9 • Buckland 56 mph at 316 AM AKST Wed Nov 9 • Deering 61 mph at 319 AM AKST Wed Nov 9 • Emmonak 62 mph at 1100 PM AKST Tue Nov 8 • Golovin 64 mph at 1200 AM AKST Wed Nov 9 • Kivalina 71 mph at 323 AM AKST Wed Nov 9 • Marshall 64 mph at 1100 PM AKST Tue Nov 8 • Noatak 62 mph at 1036 am AKST Wed Nov 9 • Nome 61 mph at 900 PM AKST Tue Nov 8 • Noorvik 67 mph at 423 am AKST Wed Nov 9 • Saint Marys 61 mph at 900 PM AKST Tue Nov 8 • Shaktoolik 64 mph at 115 AM AKST Wed Nov 9 • Shishmaref 67 mph at 1216 AM AKST Wed Nov 9 • Shungnak 69 mph at 900 AM AKST Wed Nov 9 • St. Michael 68 mph at 1200 AM AKST Wed Nov 9 • Teller 71 mph at 600 AM AKST Wed Nov 9 • Unalakleet 66 mph at 1200 AM AKST Wed Nov 9

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