South Louisiana: Do We Accept Global Warming?

1. South Louisiana:Do We Accept Global Warming? Edward P. Richards Professor of Law LSU Law Center richards@lsu.edu

2. Thesis • Worldwide, hard choices need to made about global warming and adaption • The US must lead by example • Most of south La will be inundated by 2100 • Are we denying global warming by our actions in South LA?

8. 2100

9. Is 2100 Realistic? • Green house gasses have a long residence time, so there is a 30-50 year lag • It will be decades before there are meaningful reductions • Southern LA is on a sinking crustal plate, so we have been losing ground independent of ocean rise

10. Can Coastal Restoration Save Us?

11. Coastal Elevations

13. What Happens if you Restore The Coast? • Imagine a large, very flat coastal plane, that is barely above sea level even 25 miles inland • The plane is sinking and the water is rising • What happens if you pile up dirt on the edges? • Does this affect the net distance above sea level inland of the edges? • What happens to the marshlands that depend on the long flat low water areas?

14. What about Levees? • Destroy the land on both sides • Cannot resist hurricanes • Katrina did not hit NO, just brushed it • Structural issues • Feds and state will lose interest • Damage to wetlands to get the clay • Require maintenance - LA? USA? • The Dutch do not have hurricanes

15. Possible Future 1 - Punctuated Catastrophe • Southern LA and NO continue on current lines • Feds put in enough money to limit criticism and keep projects going • Everyone says we are safe now • Region has catastrophic flood • Relative sea level continues to increase • Repeat until there is nothing left to rebuild on

16. Example to the World • Same thing is happening in Bangladesh • We are trying to avoid regional war over where the refugees will go • India says, what are you doing in LA? • Why don't you build levees and restore our coast? • Can the US say that is crazy and cannot work?

17. Possible Future 2 • Same as 1, but some local adaptation like floating houses, but no real changes • Catastrophic storm • Population scatters, this time we restrict development, make some land use changes to protect the core • Buys 50 years for the rich and business • Still not a very good example

18. Possible Future 3 • We think of south LA and NO as if it were one of those island nations that is going to either wash away or be relocated. • We preserve NO-Atlantis • We create cultural NO up river • We just move Cajun country north toward Eunice and Opelousas, where it already flourishes

19. How Do We Get to 3? • Reimagine land use • Charge mitigation against owners • ??? • Change Incentives in Flood Insurance • You can get bought out before you flood • You can never rebuild • You fill in the rest - this is intergenerational • This is what we want to work on at LSU