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16 th Annual Tampa Bay Multifamily Developers Forum

Bay Area Apartment Association & TRIAD Research & Consulting, Inc . “Ready … Set. … Go !!! The Multi-Family Market is Coming Back. 16 th Annual Tampa Bay Multifamily Developers Forum. Tampa Westshore Marriott Hotel December 8 th , 2010 Sponsored by:. HISTORICAL EMPLOYMENT TRENDS.

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16 th Annual Tampa Bay Multifamily Developers Forum

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  1. Bay Area Apartment Association & • TRIAD Research & Consulting, Inc. “Ready … Set. … Go !!! The Multi-Family Market is Coming Back 16th Annual Tampa Bay Multifamily Developers Forum Tampa Westshore Marriott Hotel December 8th , 2010 Sponsored by:

  2. HISTORICAL EMPLOYMENT TRENDS

  3. SINGLEFAMILYPERMITTRENDS

  4. MULTIFAMILYPERMITTRENDS

  5. OCCUPANCYTRENDS triad

  6. RENTAL PRICING TRENDS

  7. 2010 TAMPA BAY AREAPIPELINE & NEW CONSTRUCTION REPORT

  8. BAYAREAPIPELINE

  9. HILLSBOROUGHPIPELINE

  10. PINELLASPIPELINE

  11. PASCOPIPELINE

  12. POLKPIPELINE

  13. RENTAL HOUSING DEMAND NEW DYNAMICS OF THE ECONOMY IMPACT THE METHODOLOGIES OF PROJECTING RENTER DEMAND SUPPLYLACK OF SUPPLY – LIMITED NEW CONSTRUCTION INCOMESADJUSTED HH INCOMES - JOB LOSS (REDUCED HH INCOME) – SAVINGS LOSS - CREDIT LOSS CONSUMERS ADJUSTED HOUSING CHOICES – INCOME DRIVEN CHANGE – FORECLOSURES – SHORT SALES THEORY PREVIOUS METHODOLOGIES OF POP/HH GROWTH, JOB GROWTH, NEW INVENTORY GROWTH ARE NOT CURRENTLY ACCURATE OR VALID. NEW DYNAMICS ARE KEEPING DEMAND STRONG – ONLY CURRENT VIABLE METHODOLOGY IS ACTUAL MARKET PERFORMANCE.

  14. BAYAREAMULTIFAMILYTRENDS HILVACANT LAND OPPS IN BRANDON & SOUTH COUNTY – ACTIVE NEW CONS IN BRANDON & WESTSHORE & TAMPA PALMS – 221 (d)(4)s ACTIVE - REVS COMPLETE, MARKET RECOVERY MODERATE PINONLY CONS IN GATEWAY & URBAN ST PETE – 221 (D)(4) LARGO CLRWTR – RESTABILIZING, MARKET RECOVERY MODERATE PASONLY ACTIVE NEW CONS SR 54/56 – NEW DEMAND EXPANDING OUT OF DISTRESSED DRI’s – OPP IN MID COUNTY & WESLEY CHAPLE - MARKET RECOVERY ABOVE AVERAGE POLLAND AVAIL/AFFORD FOR FUTURE PIPELINE – NO NEW CONS - NO ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME DUE LOW OCC & NEGATIVE RENT GROWTH MANLAND AVAIL & DEMAND LIMITED FOR FUTURE DEV – BENEFIT FROM SOUTHWARD HILLS EXPANSION & PINELLAS BUILDOUT IN THE FUTURE – ACTIVITY IN LWR ATTHIS TIME – MARKET RECOVERY MODERATE SARNEW CONST ALL BUT STOPPED – REVS IN RECOVERY – LAND EXPENSIVE & MOST ACTIVITY IN ACQUISITIONS – OCC & RENT GROWTH MODERATE GLOBAL TRENDSNEW CONST SLOWED BY FINANCINT - DEMAND GROWING DUE TO DISTRESS SF & ECONOMIC TIMES - RECOVERY TO 94%-95% IN 6 TO 12 – FORECLOSURES JOB CHANGES CREATING NEW DEMAND – EMPLOY DOWN – REGION STRONGER THAN MOST OF FLORIDA - FINANCING THE CHALLENGE – PLAYERS W/$$ WILL PLAY – “VULTURE CAPITALISTS” ARE CIRCLING OVERHEAD FOR ACQ @ 50% FOR REPOSITIONING

  15. Bay Area Apartment Association & • TRIAD Research & Consulting, Inc. THANK YOU 16th Annual Tampa Bay Multifamily Developers Forum Sponsored by:

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