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Can HFC in automotive use contribute to EU goals?

This article examines the economic viability and competitiveness of using hydrogen fuel cells (HFC) in the automotive industry, with a focus on their potential contribution to EU goals such as cost effectiveness, energy efficiency, eco-efficiency, and supply security. The article also discusses the role of taxes and subsidies in promoting HFC adoption, particularly if they align with societal priorities and goals. The analysis includes quantifying the reasons for tax favoring HFC and comparing hydrogen costs based on oil prices. The text is in English.

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Can HFC in automotive use contribute to EU goals?

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  1. Can HFC in automotive use contribute to EU goals? Economic viability, competitiveness of HFC? If not: Taxes and subsidies But only if supporting societal priorities and goals Quantifying the reasons for tax-favoring HFC Anders Chr. Hansen

  2. Societal priorities and goals • Cost effectiveness • Energy efficiency • Eco-efficiency • Supply security • Can HFC in transport contribute to EU goals? • Focus on 2015-2025 Anders Chr. Hansen

  3. Hydrogen cost comparisonbased on oil price of $25/bbl Source: The Alternative Fuels Contact Group (2004) Anders Chr. Hansen

  4. Will NG based H2 be delinked from the oil price? Anders Chr. Hansen Figure 1. Natural Gas and Oi Prices 1976-2005.

  5. Competitiveness threshold model Petrol and diesel Cost (€/km) Natural gas based H2 Thresholds Early studies Wind, nuclear, etc. based H2 105 188 Oil price ($(2005)/bbl) Anders Chr. Hansen

  6. Which competing technology?TtW energy efficiency advantage Anders Chr. Hansen

  7. Eaten up by WtT conversion loss? Anders Chr. Hansen

  8. Passenger Car Density 2004 (Cars/sq.km) Source: Hansen (2007) based on Eurostat Anders Chr. Hansen

  9. Fuel taxes 2004 (€/GJ) Diesel Petrol Anders Chr. Hansen

  10. Fuel taxes move the competitiveness threshold Anders Chr. Hansen

  11. Model • Model • from Sustainable Mobility Project • WBCSD and IEA • Only passenger cars in Europe • Levels are debatable since assumptions would probably be different today • But we only look for changes Anders Chr. Hansen

  12. Scenarios • A reference scenario • Almost only gasoline and diesel • Market shares of hybrids, LPG/CNG, and EV negligible • NG based HFC scenario • Introduction of HFC in passenger car market is advanced • 41% of passenger car sales in 2050 • hydrogen is based on natural gas • Low carbon HFC scenario • Like NG based scenario, but • H2 is produced with GHG emission free or light methods • Low carbon H2 99% market share in 2025 Anders Chr. Hansen

  13. NG based HFC scenarioGHG emissions Anders Chr. Hansen

  14. Low carbon HFC scenarioGHG emissions Anders Chr. Hansen

  15. NG based HFC scenarioPM emissions (≈NOx,VOC,CO) Anders Chr. Hansen

  16. Low carbon HFC scenarioPM emissions (≈NOx,VOC,CO) Anders Chr. Hansen

  17. PM 2.5 deaths (loss of statistical life expectancy) 2000 2020 after EU Air Strategy and Maximum Climate Action Source: EEA (2006) Anders Chr. Hansen

  18. Concentration of remaining reserves Anders Chr. Hansen Data source: BP statistical review database 2006

  19. Any reasons for pursuing natural gas based hydrogen in the introduction phase? • Dynamic effects throughout the fuel chain (and commodity chain for equipment) • Pull forces • User-producer interaction • Economies of scope • External economies of scale (cluster effects) • …. Anders Chr. Hansen

  20. Why subsidies or lower taxes to H2? • Case for tax-favors modest for NGH2, but strong for CO2-lean H2 production • HFC can contribute to achievement of societal goals: • Even in 2015-2025 if renewable and nuclear energy • 2020s: coal with CCS, photovoltaic, HT electrolysis, algae.. • HFC limited contribution if supply based on natural gas supply, in particular without CCS • The tax levels already existing in Europe are sufficient • If designed to reflect contributions to societal goals even more so: Taxation of energy inputs Anders Chr. Hansen

  21. Recent EECG Research Papers on HFC in automotive use from Department of Environmental, Social and Spatial Change (ENSPAC) at Roskilde University Hansen, A. C. (2007) Where in Europe Will Hydrogen Become Competitive First? http://hdl.handle.net/1800/3012 Hansen, A. C. (2007) When Will Hydrogen Become a Competitive Transport Fuel? http://hdl.handle.net/1800/3011 Hansen, A. C. (2007) Hydrogen and Fuel Taxation. http://hdl.handle.net/1800/2991 Hansen, A. C. (2007) The Potential Contibution of Hydrogen to Societal Goals. http://hdl.handle.net/1800/2979 Hansen, A. C. (2007) The Supply Security of Hydrogen as Transport Fuel.http://hdl.handle.net/1800/2978 Hansen, A. C. (2007) Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technology in EU LDV Transport: Potential Contribution to Environmental Goals. http://rudar.ruc.dk/handle/1800/2434 Hansen, A. C. (2007) The International Oil Price and Hydrogen Competitiveness. http://rudar.ruc.dk/handle/1800/2433 Anders Chr. Hansen

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