Contribution of African Agriculture to Climate Change and Mitigation Potential Practical Action

1. Contribution of African Agriculture to Climate Change and Mitigation Potential Practical Action Dr Alain L. ANGE Technical Adviser to FARA FORUM FOR AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH IN AFRICA

2. Comparative contribution to CO2 emissions Africa has a very low contribution per capita to CO2 emissions compared to other countries – data from 1997: USA = 22 t UK = 8.9 t South Africa = 8.3 t Libya = 8 t Gabon = 2.9 t Africa’s contribution to Climate Change China = 2.8 t through Green House Gas emissions Zimbabwe = 2.6 t is insignificant compared to large emitters Nigeria = 1.6 t with exception for emissions generated Kenya = 0.3 t through land use changes. Tanzania = 0.2 t Burkina Faso = 0.1 t

3. Emissions in Atmosphere from land use change in Africa • Virtually all of the carbon released to the atmosphere from land use changes (17% of total GHG emissions and 25% of anthropogenic emissions) now comes from the tropics (8.5Gt CO2 equiv.). • Africa now contributes to some 20% of this load. • 50% of the annual global carbon released from burning natural vegetation comes from Africa. • Biomass burning and wind born dust (increased by desertification and soil degradation) produce large quantities of aerosols which partially add to the GHG effect on warming. • The great Sahara dust storms are by far the largest source of dust on the planet.

4. Forests and wood products for energy in Africa • Forest and deforestation in Africa →Reducing deforestation trend is urgently needed, while forest plantation keeps slow • Use of fuel wood in the developing world → Pro-poor alternatives to present use of fuel-wood and charcoal required in Africa

5. Estimated impact of Climate Change in agriculture in Sub- Saharan Africa Sub- Saharan Africa will have a high share of Climate Change impact on productivity in agriculture for the next 100 years if actual production systems prevail. (extracted from publications by Imperial College London and GFAR)

6. What changes in climatic conditions means in Africa • AVERAGE ANNUAL CONDITIONS • Warmer annual temperatures, specially in drier sub-tropical regions → This implies increased evaporation-transpiration by crops and water needs • Drier conditions, in particular in Northern and Southern Africa (up to -15% of rainfall). Large uncertainties about most of Sub- Saharan Africa. • More rains in East Africa including the Horn of Africa. • More floods in some regions → This implies the destruction of lowland rice fields • More intense tropical cyclones. • Higher sea levels → This implies the destruction of mangroves and rice fields • More storm surges • INCREASED VARIABILITY BOTH INTER ANNUAL AND ANNUAL • Many regions plagued by droughts and floods - greater frequency and intensity • Decrease in the number of rain days and greater intensity of rainfall

7. Facing Climate Change • Farmers have developed COPING STRATEGIES that have evolved overtime through people’s long experience in dealing with the known and understood natural variation that they expect in seasons combined with their specific responses to the season as it unfolds. ↘ Climate Change is generating changes that have not been experienced: changes in temperature and rainfall patterns; changes in the distribution of living species, changes in relationships between land and water. A new set of conditions and risks for agriculture will rapidly be imposed to farmers. • Two different categories of actions are necessary: • Adaptation = Long term adaptive strategies are needed for people to respond to a new set of evolving conditions that they have not previously experienced. As the shift in climatic conditions will be continuing, adaptation is a process and strategies should allow for monitoring such process. • Mitigation = Measures reducing factors that induce climate change. In agriculture, mitigation encompasses forests development, cropland management, improved grass lands management, livestock management, restoration of degraded land, improved wastes management.

8. Adaptation and mitigation should be combined • Production losses will drive increased encroachment on forests and savannahs if not addressed through innovative production systems. • Natural disasters will increase poverty and drive further degradation of natural resources if social nets and insurance systems are not brought into effective development. ↘ Conflict with forest development and restoration of degraded land • Limiting temperature rise for crops implies better integration of trees in production systems (shelter and wind screens). • Improved water management is key to carbon sequestration by crops and pastures and requires land use planning and land development. • Improved livestock development requires improved feed production and use within new climatic environment. • Organic wastes management should contribute to farming intensification • Energy development in rural areas should reduce the use of wood ↘ Win - win situations to be looked for combining the raising of carbon capital and the intensification of production systems in agriculture

9. Development, Resilience and Climate Change • Promoting development gives more resilience to societies and more capacity for organizing adaptation. • Addressing risks management is possibly the most important task. It cannot be only based on technology, but encompasses social capital, institutions and compensation systems. • Mitigation cannot succeed in Africa if it does not contribute to development and to provide resilience, in particular through poverty alleviation and the reduction of vulnerability. • Mitigation in Africa will not help for adaptation if it does not contribute to risks management. A failure in adaptation would jeopardize efforts for mitigation. • Water management is the key issue for facing changes in rainfall patterns and increased evaporation related to hikes in temperature

10. Specificities of water regimes in Africa → Surface water is unevenly distributed and ratio to rainfall is poor • Africa has 36 international river basins spanning 64% of the continent and holding 90% of all surface water resources. • In relation with a dominant rather flat landscape, in Africa only some 20% of rainfall is converted into run-off water, against 40% in Asia and South America. • In the Sudano- sahelian and Southern Africa regions, run-off water is respectively 6% and 9% of rainfall. • All of the large lakes show a less than 10% run-off to precipitation ratio. → Potentials for irrigation from surface water will be seriously affected by reduced rainfall through Climate Change • The effect from a 10% drop in rainfall on perennial drainage density is important < 400 mm rainfall /year = virtually no perennial drainage 400 to 600 mm = drainage decreases from 100 % to 30% 600 to 800 mm = drainage decreases from 30% to 5% 800 to 1200 mm = loss of drainage from 5% to nil > 1200 mm = slight increase of drainage

11. Water resource and irrigation in Africa • SSA’s water withdrawals for agriculture amount only 3% of its total renewable water resources despite the highly spatial and temporal variability of rainfall and resultant low land productivity and crop failures. • Irrigated areas progressed from some 2.2 to 3.3 million ha between 1985 and 2000 (from 2 to 1.8% of the cropped area). • In average, 46,600 ha are brought under irrigation /year since 2000. 1 Million additional ha could be irrigated by 2025. This will not improve the irrigated area to cropped area ratio. • Some 2 million ha prepared for irrigation are not used and degraded, which is a considerable wastage of resource. • Private and small scale irrigation systems are more effective and have a longer lifespan than large scale and public schemes. ↘↘ A wide and integrated action plan for water management is needed which will support both adaptation and mitigation to Climate Change. ↘↘ Water storage cannot be considered only in lowlands in relation with the main drainage system; water harvesting should be developed.

12. Short term and medium term impacts in agriculture from climate change in Africa • Short term impacts for farming • Short term impact on water availability • Medium term impacts on vegetation cover • Short + medium terms impact on pests and diseases • Human Health issues • Food prices and food security = Corresponding objectives for mitigation and adaptation ↘ requirements for investments and conducive measures ↘ requirements for infrastructures ↘ requirements for risks mitigating systems/ institutions ↘ requirements for innovative rural development policies

13. Climate change in combination with population growth and agricultural development • For the last 25 years, the total population in SSA increased by 93%. It will increase by more than 100% in the coming 20 years. → Need for huge increase in the production of food, fiber and other commodities • For the last 25 years, the agricultural population in SSA increased by 58%. It will increase by 31% only in the coming 20 years. → One rural person was producing agricultural commodities for 1.48 people in SSA in 1985 and for 1.73 person in 2010. One rural person should produce those commodities for 2.1 person in 2030. Labor intensification is necessary. • For the last 25 years, the cropped area in SSA increased by 69%. The total cropped area is estimated to 182 million ha in 2010. → If the productivity of the land does not improve from 2010 levels, the cropped area should double in the coming 20 years; → The corresponding encroachment on new land would be equivalent to 1/3 of the total forest and woodland area in SSA. OPTIONS FOR ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION STRONGLY DEPEND ON INTENSIFICATION

14. Actual crop productivity in African regions • Crop yields increase index 1985 – 2008 – FAO → Intensification has been very far from matching population growth rates → Actual crop yield increase rate cannot meet production requirements within the forecasted conditions under climate change in 20 years.

15. Proposed actions for intensification, adaptation and mitigation of climate change • Support the development of agricultural markets • Rehabilitate the role of trees in cropping systems and watersheds • Develop water harvesting for complementary irrigation • Support the use of agricultural inputs • Develop the production of fodder and feeds for more environmentally friendly livestock systems • Promote mechanization and motorization in agriculture • Promote the recycling of organic wastes in agriculture • Develop energy production and distribution in rural areas • Facilitate access of farmers to credit systems • Develop crop and livestock insurance systems • Develop rural infrastructures • Reinforce decentralized food stocks systems • Develop social nets alleviating vulnerability in rural areas

16. Support the development of agricultural markets • Market development is the only sustainable way for increasing farmers income and capacity for intensification, for increasing resilience to shocks = Adaptation • Market development is necessary for facing increased demand for agricultural products from the burgeoning population while limiting imports = Development • Market development should be conducive for reducing GHG emissions from farming = Mitigation and for regulating the harvest of nature= Biodiversity • Market development should be supported so that farmers have a fair share in the added value of their products = Empowerment + organisation • Market development should include mechanisms for absorbing some surpluses and for facing shortages generated by adverse climatic conditions = Adaptation → FARA has promoted the concept of Innovation Platforms through which, mobilizing the methodologies of Integrated Agricultural Research for Development (IAR4D), all stakeholders in a production chain develop markets and accordingly promote innovations in support to agricultural intensification, increased competitiveness and product development

17. Rehabilitate trees in cropping systems and watersheds • TREES IN CROPPING SYSTEMS – resilience and mitigation • Developing hedges and associating trees to crops by millions of farmers will generate more tree plantation than replanting forests ↘ Carbon fixation • Trees provide wind-screens and shelter thus limiting the rise of temperature and transpiration/ evaporation ↘ Adaptation to increased temperature • Tree leaves provide abundant organic material for mulching and plant nutrients ↘ Contribution to intensification + Carbon fixation in soils • Wood from young branches when shredded is particularly efficient for improving soil structure and water retention ↘ resilience to drought • TREES in WATERSHED – water retention, land conservation and mitigation • Replanting trees on slopes rehabilitates land and generates timber, wood for energy, fodder and non food products if properly managed by entitled communities ↘Carbon fixation, ecological services, income diversification • Replanting trees on waterways and in low lands protects against run-off damages, gives value to flood prone areas ↘Carbon fixation, land resilience, ecological services, income diversification, shelter for biodiversity FUND for tree plantations in cropped areas through modified REDD + ↘

18. Water harvesting for irrigation Adaptation • Promote local associations for water harvesting - rules for water use and for the maintenance of infrastructures; • Support land use planning for the adequate settlement of water harvesting devices in combination with land rehabilitation measures (local governance, public investments, users commitments); • Profile cropped land for harvesting run-off water (minimal terracing, organizing protected waterways, developing local reservoirs and spillways); • Provide technical guidance, financial services and guidelines for private suppliers and entrepreneurs for developing reservoirs; • Organize technical support and financial services for promoting complementary irrigation (low pressure drip and gravity systems); • Organize prevention against water-born diseases to be generated from reservoirs; Mitigation • Encourage carbon storage in soil through increased production from irrigation; • Use harvested water for securing reforestation and rehabilitation programs and for reducing social vulnerability (diversification); Fund for water harvesting through G8 (L’Aquila Decl.) + CAADP

19. Support the use of agricultural inputs • Inputs are the fuel of the farming engine. • Inputs efficiency is the leading factor for economic impact. • Inputs are the first lever for increasing land productivity. Efficiency should be strengthened through adequate water availability. • Inputs are key factor for increasing labor productivity. → Inputs strongly contribute to adaptation to climate change • Inputs efficiency is improved by the status of resources supporting production systems. Efficiency is poor in a degraded resource base. • Inputs use is badly affected by the occurrence of risks. → Mitigation, through the improvement of the resource base, provides for more efficient and secured inputs use. → Risks management is essential for the promotion of inputs use

20. Environmentally friendly livestock systems Land management and livestock → SOCIAL ORGANIZATION • Rehabilitate pastures through the use of leguminous species and species limiting de-nitrification (Bracharias) = Mitigation + Adaptation • Rotate pastures with crops for increasing soil carbon = Mitigation • Rehabilitate grazing areas through the plantation of fodder trees = Mitigation + Adaptation • Organize paddocks for limiting over-grazing and soil erosion = Mitigation • Develop no grazing for limiting soil trampling and erosion = Mitigation ↘ Conflict between Conservation Agriculture and the use of crop residues by livestock Livestock nutrition → HERDERS EMPOWERMENT • Improve livestock nutrition to limit ammonia and methane emission = Mitigation Livestock wastes management → SOCIAL ORGANIZATION + REGULATIONS • Improve management of wastes in order to limit GHG emissions (Methane, ammonia) and pollution of surface and ground waters= Mitigation • Facilitate recycling of livestock wastes into cropping systems = Adaptation

21. Mechanization + motorization of farming • Mechanization= an important asset for adaptation • Mechanization supports labor intensification in agriculture: land cleaning and preparation; crop settlement; weeding; harvesting; post- harvest; transport. It helps managing risks. • Traditional operations tremendously improved with adequate hand tools (pedal pumps and Archimede wheels for water pumping, threshers, shelling machines, pickers, scythes and sickles). • Animal draught should be encouraged wherever competitive and feasible for labor intensification. Accurate tools are needed for motion by draught animals. • An important function of animal draught is transportation. Carts are available. • Multi functionality of draught animals is important (energy, dung, meat, milk, siblings). • Motorization = a big plus for adaptation with antagonisms to mitigation • Motorization requires access to energy sources: gas, fuel, electricity → GHG emissions. • Motorization may address actions on a “fixed” site (water pumping, post harvest and processing) or action through movement on a given area (land shaping, cropping, transport). • Biogas, vapor, electricity resulting from processing wastes may support “fixed motorization”= Mitigation • Fuels are required for most actions through movement = Against mitigation • Bio-fuels may support local motorization = oils and ethanol = Contribution to mitigation

22. Recycling organic wastes in agriculture • Current situation • Crop residues are current most important organic wastes. Ratio to harvested products is by 1 to 1 to 1 to 2. Those are largely used by livestock if developed. • Animal wastes are related to the nature of livestock and to the degree of intensification. Ratio to animal products is 1 to 4 to 1 to 10. • Post - harvest residues are very different according to harvested products. Ratio to final products is 1 to 3 to 1 to 10. • Processing residues from cottage industry usually represent 10 to 20% but may represent as much as 80% of processed materials. → Agricultural wastes are 1.5 to 3 fold the mass of marketed products from farms. Logistics for their handling is problematic. → Burning residues or keeping wastes hips is common → pollution and GHG emissions • Potential contribution of organic wastes to adaptation and mitigation → Mulching all crop residues is feasible if yields are modest and contributes to the fixation of carbon, but may release N oxides. Biomass in excess should be evacuated from fields. → Recycling raw or composted animal wastes, post harvest residues and processing residues provides valuable input for cropping. Transport and incorporation are serious issues. → Processing organic wastes for energy production is possible if transport is available.

23. Energy production and distribution in rural areas • Current situation • Access to energy = major lever for rural development = Resilience • Traditional ways for generating power: very costly in rural areas (costs for transporting fuel + distributing power). Transport fuel accessible. • Alternative solutions → Mitigation + Development: • Solar power for pumping drinkable water and low intensity power; • Biogas for moving fixed motors on farm (post harvest/ processing); • Bio-fuels for local use of moving motors (tractors, transportation); • Carbonization of wood products and cellulosic dry wastes for producing power at community level. → The advantage of carbonization is the production of bio-char, a high carbon content/light very active product improving fertility and water holding capacity of soils = Adaptation + Mitigation

24. Facilitate farmers’ access to Credit Systemsand develop crop and livestock insurance systems Investment = key word for Adaptation + Mitigation • Credit = the multiplying factor for farmers’ investments • National system should better subsidize rural credit than inputs (BRAZIL); • A credit system should address agricultural inputs with contribution from the inputs industry and wherever possible from the production to consumption chains through contractual farming agreements; • A special credit system should address farm mechanization and motorization. • Policies should anchor farm credit on real assets through land deeds. • Insurance = safeguard for investments and shield for credit • Crop insurance should be based on documented decision by independent commission about climatic conditions = thresholds generate indemnities; • Livestock insurance should be based on documented decision by independent commission about availability of fodder = thresholds generate indemnities; • Insurance indemnities should first of all repay for credit, securing the systems.

25. Developing rural infrastructures Objectives = facilitate marketing for inputs and outputs; harness natural resource for development empower people and drive social organization monitor and mitigate risks Domains = rural and feeder roads water storage and distribution; dykes against floods storage for agricultural commodities decentralized energy generation – renewable sources communication capacity building → key concepts = decentralization, participation of stakeholders users’ associations, fees (function and maintenance)

26. Social risks management • Decentralized food stocks systems - Marketing arrangements may facilitate earmarking of a percentage of trade products to support the composition of provincial security food stocks; • Community security stocks may be encouraged through the credit on stock system (warrantage) as a local insurance. • Valuable wood products from plantations mobilized for food purchase by communities in shortage situations. • Social nets alleviating vulnerability • Public support for employment and income to vulnerable people • Jobs at community level = water harvesting investment, trees development (cropped areas and watersheds), energy generation in substitution to fuel-wood and charcoal, keepers of commons

27. Conclusions Climate change is making more urgent the complex tasks for rural development and agricultural intensification. Adaptation and mitigation should be closely inter-related. Social organization, private, cooperative and public investments should be closely coordinated. Education, information and empowerment are key to the involvement of stakeholders. Risks management is a prerequisite to practical action: • Securing assets of stakeholders; • Securing the development tools. Different financial tools should be mobilized.