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Climate Change Mitigation in Developing Countries: Mexico. Fernando Tudela El Colegio de Mexico Side Event – COP 8 October 29, 2002. MEXICO: NAFTA PARTNER MEMBER OF OECD NON -ANNEX I / DEVELOPING COUNTRY 54% OF POPULATION BELOW POVERTY LINE
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Climate Change Mitigation in Developing Countries:Mexico Fernando Tudela El Colegio de Mexico Side Event – COP 8 October 29, 2002
MEXICO: NAFTA PARTNER • MEMBER OF OECD • NON -ANNEX I / DEVELOPING COUNTRY • 54% OF POPULATION BELOW POVERTY LINE • MEXICO IS HIGHLY VULNERABLE TO CLIMATE – RELATED DISASTERS
Mexico: climate change action Federal Government´s Committee on Climate Change (1997) CC committees in Advisory Councils on Sustainable Development Activities implemented jointly: ILUMEX, Scolel-té projects Climate change included as a priority for publicly funded research GHG Inventories (1990, 1994, 1996, 1998) Two complete National Communications to UNFCCC • Mexico was the first large (100 Million inhabitants), oil exporting country to ratify the Kyoto Protocol: Approval from ALL parties at Senate session April 29th 2000 • Open to discussions on the evolution of commitments
Mexico´s energy sector • Energy: a constitutional State monopoly • 40% of public investment to energy projects • 5th oil producing country • Oil exports: 1.7 M barrels/day • Oil taxation: 37% of all federal revenues
Origin and use of Energy 2000 Uses: Total Supply Origin: Total Demand Including losses Source: SENER, 2002
Mexico’s GHG Emissions • Net CO2 emissions (mid 1990´s): 2% world´s total • Mexico: the largest emitter in Latin America & the Caribbean • CO2 from fuel combustion:3.4 tons/ per capita (1/5 USA) • Carbon intensity (fuel comb.): 0.47 kg CO2/ USD90ppp
MexicanGHGsEmissions by sector* 1996 *In terms of CO2 equivalentSource: 2nd Nat´l Communication
Mitigation efforts LULUCF • Conservation/ Sustainable utilization of natural resources • Curbing deforestation • Energy • Improving energy efficiency • Fuel substitution and pricing Source: 2nd Nat´l Communication
Land cover control • Expansion and consolidation of protected areas • Sustainable wildlife programs • Forest management programs • Reforestation As of 2000, ¼ of the area with original vegetation (70% of the land) benefits from one of those programs Still threatened: rainforests
National Power Grid Mexico2000-2004- 41% reduction 1,709 Fuel Oil 1,574 Coal 1,299 1,207 1,015 1,016 1,013 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Declining use of dirty fuels Source: SENER, 2002
Level of emissions 120 1.2 1.0 100 0.8 80 Avoided emissions millions of tons of CO2 0.6 60 0.4 millions of tons of avoided CO2 40 0.2 20 0.0 0 0.2 1997 1998 1999 2000 1991 1994 1995 1996 1992 1993 Avoided CO2 emissions in electric sector CO2 emissions in thermal plants • Emissions by GWh (thermal) have been decreasing. • In 2002, natural gas accounted for 22.3 % of the total fuel combustion; while in 1990 it was of 16.1 %. 820 (tons of CO2/GWh) 810 800 790 780 770 760 750 740 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 CO2 emissions in electric sector • Introduction of natural gas in power generation avoided 413.4 million tons of CO2 in 2000. • Acumulated avoided CO2 amounted to 4.5 million tons between 1991 and 2000. Source: SENER, 2002
Institutional efforts I • Energy saving institutions: CONAE (1989), FIDE (1990) Conae - Technical Norms: 674G Wh saved and 1000 MW avoided in 2000. - Daylight saving time: 6329 GWh saved and 863 MW avoided since 1996. FIDE - Energy saving programs: 1866 GWH saved and 525 MW avoided till 1999. • Mexico City develops its own climate change strategy
Institutional efforts II • PEMEX (State-owned oil/gas company) is the first oil company in a developing country to establish an internal emissions trading system (cap & trade for CO2) • PEMEX reduced 5% its own energy consumption Source: SENER, 2002
Kilojoules / peso (GDP) Energy intensity • In the last decade, energy intensity of the Mexican economy is decreasing Source: SENER, 2002
GDP 120 Internal Supply of energy CO2 emissions 115 110 105 100 95 90 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Decoupling emissions / GDP GDP, Internal Supply of energy, CO2 emissions (energy sector) (1994 =100) Source: IEA, CO2 Emissions from fuel combustion(2001)
Mitigation results A plausible guess: • Mitigation efforts have resulted in a 5 % reduction of GHG emissions below BAU • Multiple ancillary benefits
Mitigation potential POTENTIAL 2010 262 M tons CO2 131 M tons CO2 73%: Management of temperate forests 53%: Combined cycle power plants (natural gas) Source: 2nd Nat´l Communication
Conclusion The case of Mexico shows that: A large, oil exporting, developing country may: • Build up institutional capacity • Achieve mitigation results, based upon self-interest • Support the Kyoto process as a State policy