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Annual Energy Outlook 2007

Annual Energy Outlook 2007. Energy issues to consider. How are energy trends changing? What role will ethanol play in the future? How big a contribution can alternative sources of distillate fuel oil, such as coal-to-liquids and biodiesel, make to energy supply?

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Annual Energy Outlook 2007

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  1. Annual Energy Outlook 2007

  2. Energy issues to consider.... • How are energy trends changing? • What role will ethanol play in the future? • How big a contribution can alternative sources of distillate fuel oil, such as coal-to-liquids and biodiesel, make to energy supply? • What is the role for unconventional vehicle technologies? • How large of a contribution will LNG make to meeting energy requirements? • Will coal continue to play a dominant role in U.S. electricity generation? • What role will nuclear generation play in meeting electricity requirements?

  3. World Oil Price, 1980-2030 (2005 dollars per barrel) History Projections Annual Energy Outlook 2006 and 2007

  4. U.S. Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel, 1960-2030 (quadrillion Btu) History Projections Liquid Fuels & Other Petroleum Coal Natural Gas Nuclear Renewables Annual Energy Outlook 2007

  5. U.S. Energy Use per Capita and per Dollar of Real Gross Domestic Product, 1970-2030 (index, 1970 = 1) History Projections Annual Energy Outlook 2007

  6. Consumption of Liquids and Other Petroleum Products by Sector, 1970-2030 (million barrels per day) History Projections Transportation Industrial Residential and Commercial Electric Power Annual Energy Outlook 2007

  7. U.S. New Light-Duty Vehicle Efficiency, 1980-2030 (gasoline-equivalent miles per gallon) History Projections AEO2007 AEO2006 Annual Energy Outlook 2006 and 2007

  8. U.S. Sales of Unconventional Light-Duty Vehicles, 2015 and 2030 (thousand vehicles sold) Hybrids Flex Fuel Turbo Direct Injection Diesel Gaseous Electric Fuel Cell Annual Energy Outlook 2007

  9. Ethanol Consumption as E85 and Blended with Motor Gasoline, 1981-2030 (billion gallons) History Projections Ethanol Blended into Motor Gasoline AEO2007 AEO2006 Ethanol in E85 Annual Energy Outlook 2006 and 2007

  10. U.S. Petroleum/Liquids Supply, Consumption, and Net Imports, 1960-2030 (million barrels per day) History Projections 61% Consumption Net Imports 60% Domestic Supply Annual Energy Outlook 2007

  11. Lower-48 Crude Oil Production by Source, 2000-2030 (million barrels per day) AEO2006 Onshore AEO2007 Onshore AEO2006 Offshore AEO2007 Offshore Annual Energy Outlook 2006 and 2007

  12. U.S. Natural Gas Consumption by Sector, 1990-2030 (trillion cubic feet) History Projections Industrial* Electric Power Residential Commercial Transportation** * Includes lease and plant fuel ** Includes pipeline fuel Annual Energy Outlook 2007

  13. U.S. Natural Gas Production, Consumption, and Net Imports, 1960-2030 (trillion cubic feet) History Projections Consumption 21% Net Imports 16% Production Natural Gas Net Imports, 2005 and 2030 (trillion cubic feet) Annual Energy Outlook 2006 and 2007

  14. Major Sources of Incremental U.S. Natural Gas Supply, 2006-2030 (trillion cubic feet) Growth in Alaskan Production Growth in LNG Imports Growth in Non-Associated Unconventional Base Production (all sources) Annual Energy Outlook 2007

  15. U.S. Natural Gas Wellhead Price, 1970-2030 (2005 dollars per thousand cubic feet) History Projections Annual Energy Outlook 2006 and 2007

  16. U.S. Coal Consumption by Sector, 2005, 2010, 2020, and 2030 (quadrillion Btu) 36.0 35.0 28.1 27.5 25.1 24.2 22.8 Electric Power Coal to Liquids Other 2010 2020 2030 Annual Energy Outlook 2006 and 2007

  17. U.S. Coal Minemouth Price, 1970-2030 (2005 dollars per million Btu) History Projections Annual Energy Outlook 2006 and 2007

  18. 3-Year Rolling Average Electricity Demand Growth(with exponential trend line) History Projections Annual Energy Outlook 2006 and 2007

  19. U.S. Electricity Sales by Sector, 2005, 2010, 2020, and 2030 (billion kilowatthours) 5,341 5,168 Transportation 4,629 4,528 Industrial 3,978 3,953 3,660 Commercial Residential 2010 2020 2030 Annual Energy Outlook 2006 and 2007

  20. U.S. Electricity Generation Capacity Additions by Fuel, 2006-2030 (gigawatts) Natural Gas Coal Renewables Nuclear Annual Energy Outlook 2007

  21. U.S. Electricity Generation by Fuel, 2005 and 2030 (billion kilowatthours) - percent of total Annual Energy Outlook 2006 and 2007

  22. U.S. Electricity Price, 1970-2030 (2005 cents per kilowatthour) History Projections Annual Energy Outlook 2006 and 2007

  23. U.S. Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1980-2030 (million metric tons) 8,114 in 2030 History Projections 7,119 in 2020 6,365 in 2010 7,950 in 2030 6,944 in 2020 6,214 in 2010 Carbon Dioxide Emission Intensity, 1980-2030 (metric tons per million 2000 dollars of GDP) 488 in 2010 406 in 2020 351 in 2030 486 in 2010 407 in 2020 353 in 2030 Annual Energy Outlook 2006 and 2007

  24. Annual Energy Outlook 2007 reference case indicates that through 2030.... • Traditional fossil fuels are expected to continue to meet the bulk of energy requirements over the projection period • U.S. energy demand is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.1 percent • The energy efficiency of the economy is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 1.8 percent • U.S. oil import dependency is projected to grow from 60 percent to 61 percent • U.S. natural gas use is projected to be level off over the last decade of the projection • Future growth in U.S. natural gas supplies depends on unconventional domestic production, natural gas from Alaska, and liquefied natural gas imports • Carbon dioxide emissions are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.2 percent

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