Changing Seasons in a Changing Climate Part Two

1. Changing Seasons in a Changing ClimatePart Two

2. SUMMER Average summer temperatures are expected to rise from 4 to 8 C More extreme weather is predicted – summer heat, windstorms, drought and severe rainstorms

3. Butterflies: Southerners on the march northward A number of southern (Carolinian) species have expanded their range northwards over the last two decades (e.g., Delaware Skipper, Little Glassywing Skipper, Black Dash, Wild Indigo Duskywing, Eastern Tiger Swallowtail, Eastern Tailed Blue, Giant Swallowtail) Giant Swallowtail now common in Kawarthas. Was restricted to extreme SW Ontario Climate change may explain the expansion. Coldest winter temperature determines how far north some insect species can occur Warmer winters may therefore allow some species to expand their range. Warmer summers may also be having an impact. In years with long, hot summers, we are now seeing two broods of some species that were formerly single-brooded (e.g., Peck’s Skipper, Tawny-edged Skipper) Source: James Kamstra, ecologist and environmental consultant , AECOM Giant Swallowtail – Canada’s biggest butterfly

4. Climate change will impact our lake ecosystems Earlier ice-out and warmer temperatures will mean an increase in the frequency of potentially harmful algae blooms (e.g., blue-green algae) an increase in the number of invasive species (e.g., zebra mussel) an increase in the abundance of aquatic vegetation, both native and alien invasive species (e.g., Eurasian milfoil) with warmer, clearer water 2012 was one of the worst summers on record for aquatic plant-related problems for boaters (marina owner, Buckhorn Lake) Blue-green algae Zebra Mussels Eurasian-Milfoil

5. Invasive species should thrive in a changing climate, thanks to their adaptability Common Reed (Phragmites) Purple Loosestrife Dog-strangling Vine Garlic Mustard

6. A decline in forest health and composition • Forests will be negatively impacted by increased temperature, more frequent drought, competition with invasive plant species (e.g., European Buckthorn), greater risks from insect pests (e.g., Emerald Ash Borer, Gypsy Moth) and fungal infections (Butternut canker) • By mid-century, we won’t have the temperature and precipitation regime for the kind of forest and vegetation we have now. “Our climate” will have moved into northern Ontario. • A number of tree species are expected to disappear from our forests.

7. Late summer: a bad time for hayfever sufferers Hayfever sufferers can blame ragweed, a plant that’s thriving with higher CO2 levels in the atmosphere (as is Poison Ivy) Poison Ivy Ragweed

8. FALL warmer falls are expected (and already happening) which will probably mean a poorer fall leaf colour (cold nights = best colour) first frost will occur at increasingly later dates fall-like conditions are already lingering into early winter like early spring, late fall is often when temperatures climb highest above normal October 2013 was almost 2C warmer than usual

9. Monarchs heading to Mexico A precarious future Climate change is threatening Monarchs on their migration route (drought, heat) and Mexican wintering grounds (winter storms causing hypothermia; warming climate in the mountains threatening future of Oyamel fir trees) Thanks to a new NAFTA agreement, a “milkweed corridor” is to be established between Canada and Mexico Tagging at Presqu’ile P.P. Photo from Mexican wintering grounds

10. Trout are spawning Coldwater species like Brook Trout, Lake Trout and Walleye will decline substantially with increased air and water temperatures. Brook Trout need cold streams. Brook Trout range is on track to decrease by 50% by 2050 (MNR) In Pennsylvania, now at 10% of historic range because of warming. Warming water, for example, may disrupt Lake Trout reproduction as eggs hatch too early. Warm water species, such as bass and sunfish, should do well.

11. A number of bird species are delaying their autumn departure Red-winged Blackbird Common Merganser Common Loon Trumpeter Swan

12. More frequent and more intense freezing rain events are likely (Toronto Hydro report, Sept. 2012) Increased risk of damage to city trees and to forests December 2013

13. Three numbers to remember 2°? The degrees Celcius of warming of the atmosphere that was considered “safe” (0.6 °C of warming so far) However, latest research says even 1C of warming will bring drastic consequences & allowing 2C would be “foolhardy”(James Hansen et al, PLoS One, 12/03/13)) 565 The gigatons (billions of tons) of carbon dioxide that can be emitted without going over 2°C of warming 2,795 The gigatons of carbon dioxide that would be emitted if corporations sell the fossil fuels they presently have in their reserves – five time the safe amount! Hence the opposition to the tar sands and new pipelines Source: Bill McKibben, 350.org Tar sand collage

14. What now? Simultaneously pursue policies of adaptation (e.g., improving infrastructure) and reducing carbon emissions Not too late to avoid the worst case scenarios by drastically reducing carbon emissions (eventually 80 – 90%) We will need to leave about 2/3 of planet’s fossil fuel reserves in the ground. (Reserves represent the amount of fossil fuels that can be profitably extracted today) from International Energy Agency Construction of Keystone XL pipeline, which is deemed vital for the expansion of the oil sands, will only lead to greater CO2 emissions. It therefore makes no sense. Easiest way to solve C02 problem: tax carbon emissions in proportion to the amount of carbon they release. Must be revenue neutral. Taxes elsewhere could be reduced to balance out a new carbon tax. No complicated regulations such as gas mileage requirements for cars. Has been quite successful in B.C. It is the solution economists prefer (e.g., Eric Reguly, Globe & Mail business reporter – Nov. 30, 2013) Storm sewer A carbon tax?

15. Huge obstacles to change Right-wing and ideologues media (e.g., Sun News), corporations and religious fundamentalists have created a very successful “denial industry” Their argumentation means climate scientists are either corrupt (i.e., only working for research grants), incompetent or that the “jury is still out.” You would have to believe that all science – from health care to computers - is suspect. We have a federal government that is hostile to environmental science… cut backs, muzzling Gratification is in the distant future … Are we able to act for future generations? The public lacks a sense of urgency and confuses “weather” with climate. We are disconnected from nature. All seems fine. We have a poor understanding of how science works and are quick to reject “inconvenient truths.” The human brain does not react well to a slow motion phenomenon like climate change We are not reminded of it enough … not even on CBC weather reports! Individual action seems meaningless. A meaningful solution means a massive move away from fossil fuels and an end to economic growth. It is much easier to live in denial. Humans are good at this! Clair Martin – CBC Best case scenario: Price of oil at $100 + may itself put an end to growth Jeff Rubin “End of Growth”