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Wind energy in a changing climate

Wind energy in a changing climate. Alexander Bakker KNMI bakker@knmi.nl ECAM 2 October 2009. Decreasing trend wind yield (turbines). Contents. Geostrophic wind speed as predictor Past trends (Reanalysis & NAO index). Offshore wind measurements. Potential wind.

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Wind energy in a changing climate

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  1. Wind energy in a changing climate Alexander Bakker KNMI bakker@knmi.nl ECAM 2 October 2009

  2. Decreasing trend wind yield (turbines)

  3. Contents • Geostrophic wind speed as predictor • Past trends (Reanalysis & NAO index)

  4. Offshore wind measurements

  5. Potential wind

  6. Wind turbines (power curve)

  7. Geostrophic wind speed • ERA40 2.5 x 2.5 1958-2001 • ERA Interim 1.5 x 1.5 1989-

  8. R (Windex,geostrophic wind) ERA Interim ERA40

  9. Windex and ERA interim geostrophic wind

  10. Windex and ERA40 geostrophic wind

  11. Trends geostrophic wind speed (m/s)/yr ERA40 ERA Interim

  12. P-value trends geostrophic wind speed ERA40 ERA Interim

  13. Temporal dependency?

  14. NAO index Jones PD, Jonsson T and Wheeler D (1997) Extension to the North Atlantic Oscillation using early instrumental pressure observations from Gibraltar and South-West Iceland. Int. J. Climatol. 17, 1433-1450. 3

  15. Conclusions • Trends in wind yields are not caused by climatological trends • Geostrophic wind speed and NAO index are good predictors for “relative” wind yields in the North Sea • Is there temporal dependency (autocorrelation, persistence)?

  16. What causes the increasing difference?

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