USING HISTORY TO SHAPE THE FUTURE -- OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL

1. USING HISTORY TO SHAPE THE FUTURE -- OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL WORLD WIDE CHEMICAL CONFERENCE JUNE, 2000

2. OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL • FUTURE USE OF CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS WILL DEPEND ON WHAT LESSONS ARE DRAWN FROM HISTORY • TO USE THESE WEAPONS, ONE MUST KNOW THE EFFECT THEY HAVE HAD IN THE PAST • CONSIDER THE BALCK AND THE SPANISH FLU

3. OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL • THE BLACK DEATH • EUROPE BEFORE THE PLAGUE • THE RISE OF CITIES • THE RISE OF COMMERCE • THE SIEGE OF KAFFA • THE USE OF BIO WARFARE IN THE MIDDLE AGES • THE DISEASE IS SPREAD BY OXCART AND SHIP

4. OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL • THE BLACK DEATH • THE FERTILE GROUND OF EUROPE • THE LACK OF PREPARATION • LACK OF MEDICAL KNOWLEDGE • A TENDENCY TOARD HYSTERIA • THE PLAGUE TAKES HOLD -- GOD ABANDONS EUROPE • THE MECHANICS OF DISPOSAL

5. OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL • THE BLACK DEATH • ENTIRE VILLAGES WIPED OUT • ALL SORTS OF REMEDIES WERE TRIED • SOCIAL ORDER BROKE DOWN • MENTALLY ILL PEOPLE, THOSE WITH HANDICAPS, ANIMALS WERE ATTACKED ANDKILLED -- THEY WERE BLAMED

6. OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL • THE BLACK DEATH • THE COST IN LIVES • 30% OF EUROPE DIED • CIVILIZATION WS SET BACK A GENERATION OR MORE • SOCIAL ORDER AND COMMERCE BADLY DISRUPTED • IT WAS PREVENTABLE IF EUROPE HAD KNOWN THE CAUSE

7. OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL • THE BLACK DEATH • EVENTUALLY THE DISEASE BURNED ITSELF OUT • RE-OCCURRED IN EUROPE FOR OVER A DECADE AT IRREGULAR INTERVALS • WHAT STOPPED THE PLAGUE WAS THE DEVELOPMENT OF BETTER SANITARY CONDITIONS

8. OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL • HISTORICAL LESSONS FOR OPERATIONAL PLANNING • THE PLAUGE EPENDED ON UNHYGENIC CONDITIONS -- CONDITIONS LARGELY ERADICATED • DOCTORS CAN DETECT THE PLAGUE AND TREAT IT • THE PLAUGE IS A RARITY NOW • UNIT 731 TIRED TO WEAPONIZE IT

9. OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL • HISTORICAL LESSONS FOR OPERATIONAL PLANNING • THE PLAGUE WOULD HAVE TO BE ENGINEERED AS A WEAPON • RUSSIANS MAY HAVE BEEN DOING JUST THAT • TECHNOLOGY MAY HAVE BEEN SHARED WITH OTHERS • USE OF NATURALLY OCCURRING VIRUS VITAL

10. OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL • HISTORICAL LESSONS FOR OPERATIONAL PLANNING • THE PLAGUE OCCURRED 5 CENTURIES AGO • CITIZENS HAVE NO RECENT MEMORY TO ALARM THEM • NO ONE FEELS THREATENED • BUT WE HAVE A MORE RECENT PLAGUE TO PROVIDE SOME ALARM -- THE SPANISH FLU OF 1917

11. OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL • A MORE RECENT HISTORICAL EXAMPLE -- THE SPANISH FLU OF 1917 • ORIGINS OF THE PLAGUE • BEGAN AT FORT RILEY, KANSAS • LARGE MANURE PILE BURNED AND WIND CARRIED ASHES ALL OVER THE POST • NEXT DAY, SOLDIERS STARTED COMING DOWN WITH THE FLU • ARMY PANICKED -- SENT TROOPS OVER TO EUROPE

12. OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL • A MORE RECENT HISTORICAL EXAMPLE -- THE SPANISH FLU OF 1917 • ORIGINS OF THE PLAGUE • THEY BROUGHT THE DISEASE WITH THEM • PEOPLE IN EUROPE BEGAN TO COME DOWN TITH THE DISEASE • FLU SPREAD TO THE GERMANS, AND THEN MOVED EAST BY STATES • IN FACT, THE DISEASE MOVED AROUND THE WORLD AND RE-ENTERED THE U.S. THROUGH THE WEST COAST

13. OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL • A MORE RECENT HISTORICAL EXAMPLE -- THE SPANISH FLU OF 1917 • NEAR BREAKDOWN OF SOCIAL ORDER • HUNDREDS OF PEOPLE AFFECTED -- WHOLE FAMILIES • SPREAD RAPIDLY THROUGH THE POPULATION BY CONTACT • PEOPLE DIED WITHIN A FEW DAYS FROM THE ONSET OF THE SYMPTOMS

14. OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL • A MORE RECENT HISTORICAL EXAMPLE -- THE SPANISH FLU OF 1917 • NEAR BREAKDOWN OF SOCIAL ORDER • MORGUES RAN OUT OF ROOM • PEOPLE CEASED TO GO OUTUSIDE AND INTERACT WITH OTHERS • SCHOOLS AND STORES WERE CLOSED • THE ECONOMIC LIFE OF THE NATION BEGAN TO GRIND TO A HALT • PEOPLE BEGAN TO BLAME OTHERS

15. OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL • A MORE RECENT HISTORICAL EXAMPLE -- THE SPANISH FLU OF 1917 • NEAR BREAKDOWN OF SOCIAL ORDER • POPULATION MIGRATED TO THE COUNTR FROM THE CITIY AND MERELY SPRED THE FLU • PEOPLE TOOK UP RELIGION AS THEY HAD DURING THE BLACK DEATH • FAMILIES LOST SIGNIFICANT MEMBERS ONE AFTER THE OTHER • AS QUICKLY AS IT AROSE, THE FLU DISAPPEARED • JUST AT THE RIGHT TIME -- SOCIETY WAS BEGINNING TO COME APART

16. OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL • HISTORICAL LESSONS FOR OPERATIONAL PLANNING • THE FLU HAS NOT NORMALLY BEEN LISTED AS A POTENTIAL WEAPON • HISTORICAL EVIDENCE THAT IT CAN RAVAGE A POPULATION • FLU OCCURS NATURALLY AND ALMOST EVERY YEAR • AN EASY WEAPON TO TEST -- ITS SO NATURAL TO HAVE IT

17. OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL • HISTORICAL LESSONS FOR OPERATIONAL PLANNING • FLU CAN BE UPGRADED TO BE MORE MORE LETHAL • IF A KILLER FLU WAS USED, SOCIAL ORDER AND MEDICAL FACILITIES WOULD BREAK DOWN • WHO WOULD KNOW THIS TYPE OF FLU WAS A WEAPON

18. OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL • HISTORICAL LESSONS FOR OPERATIONAL PLANNING • FLU IS A PERFECT WEAPON BECAUSE IT SPREADS SO RAPIDLY AND ITS POINT OF ORIGIN CAN EASILY BE MASKED • BIOWEAPONS HAVE NOT BEEN USED SINCE 1945 BECAUSE OF THE THREAT OF NUCLEAR RETALIATION

19. OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL • HISTORICAL LESSONS FOR OPERATIONAL PLANNING • INFRASTRUCTURE OF PREPARATION • WEAPON MUST BE IDENTIFIED EARLY • DISEASE MUST BE KEPT WITHIN PARAMETERS • CENTRAL DIRECTION TO FIGHT THE DISEASE AND ITS SPREAD • CIVIL AUTHORITIES MUST BE PREPARED FOR THIS TYPE OF CONTINGENCY • FIRST RESPONDERS MUST IDENTIFY WHAT IT IS AND SPREAD ALARM

20. OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL • THE MOST IMPORTANT KNOWLEDGE • HISTORY SHOWS IF BIOWEAPON IS FULLY DPLOYED, THE DAMAGE CAN BE CATASTOPHIC • MUST THINK OUT OF THE BOX -- NORMAL TERMS OF REFERENCE DO NOT APPLY • IF WE FORGET JUST ONE, IT IS ALL OVER • NEVER ASSUME THAT THE ENEMY WILL USE LETHAL -- THERE IS A DEFINITE PLACE FOR NONETHAL CHEMICALS AND BIO AGENTS

21. OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL • THE MOST IMPORTANT KNOWLEDGE • KNOWLEDGE OF THE BLACK DEATH, THE SPANISH FLU, AND OTHER PLAGUES IN HISTORY CAN GIVE A NATION THE INFORMATION IT NEEDS TO PLAN A BOLD AND SWIFT STROKE TO CHANGE THE BALANCE OF POWER IN THE WORLD • IT’S ALL ABOUT POWER

22. OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL • THE USE OF THE DOUBLE STEAL • IN BASEBALL, WHEN TWO RUNNERS ARE ON BASE AND THE 3RD BASE COACH SIGNALS FOR A DOUBLE STEAL, THEY RUN ON THE NEXT PITCH TO GET INTO SCORING POSITION • YOU CAN GET TWO RUNS INSTEAD OF ONE BY RISKING ONE OR BOTH RUNNERS • A HIGH RISK, BUT THE PAYOFF IS BIG

23. OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL • OPERATIONAL DOUBLE STEAL • RATIONALE: THE CHANGING OF THE BALANCE OF POWER IN THE PACIFIC RIM • BRINGS TOGETHER THREE OLD COMRADES -- CHINA, NORTH KOREA, AND RUSSIA • THE STAKES ARE ENORMOUS • POWER COMES TO THOSE WHO DARE

24. OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL • NOTE: THIS SCENARIO IS FICTION • BUT, REMEMBER TWENTY THOUSAND LEAGUES UNDER THE SEAS • THE SUBMARINE NAUTILUS WAS FICTION THEN, BUT THAT TYPE OF A SUBMARINE IS COMMON NOW • FICTION CAN BECOME REALITY

25. OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL • GIVENS: • NORTH KOREA, RUSSIA, AND CHINA HAVE LARGE AND CAPABLE BIOWEAPONS RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT FACILITIES • NORTH KOREA’S GOAL IS TO REUNITE THE SOUTH • CHINA WANTS TO TAKE OVER TAIWAN • BOTH CANNOT REACH THEIR DREAMS WHILE THE U.S. CAN INTERVENE

26. OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL • GIVENS: • CURRENT U.S. POLICY IS CLEAR -- USE CHEMICAL OR BIOWEAPONS AGAINST US, AND RETALIATION WILL BE MASSIVE AND MAYBE NUCLEAR • PROBLEM: HOW TO DEVELOP A PLAN USING CHEMICAL AND BIOAGENTS THAT WOULD RENDER THE U.S. HARMLESS WITHOUT RISKING NUCLEAR EXCHANGE

27. OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL • THERE IS A WAY • PLANNING CYCLE UNDERSTANDINGS: • TAIWAN AND SOUTH KOREA MUST BE ATTACKED AND OVERRUN BEFORE U.S. CAN INTERVENE IN STRENTH • PRESENT U.S. WITH FAIT ACCOMPLI AND GIVE U.S. LEADERSHIP A TERRIBLE CHOICE

28. OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL • THERE IS A WAY • PLANNING CYCLE UNDERSTANDINGS: • “WE HAD TO DESTROY THE VILLAGE TO SAVE IT” SYNDROME • NO PRESIDENT SHOULD EVER BE FACED WITH THIS TYPE OF A DECISION

29. OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL • THE RIDDLE OF TAIWAN • CAPABLE OF DEFENDING ITSELF, BUT RELATIONS WITH PRC ARE DELICATE ABOUT PROVIDING MILITARY HARDWARE • CHINA IS BUILDING UP TECHNOLOGY TO MARCH ANY POTENTIAL FOE • GEOGRAPHY OF TWIWAN LIMITS WHAT PLA CAN DO TO SEIZE ISLAND • CHINESE NAVY DOES NOT HAVE AMPHIBIOUS FORCES FOR FULL SCALE LANDINGS

30. OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL • THE RIDDLE OF TAIWAN • ANY ATTEMPT TO SEIZE THE ISLAND WOULD HAVE TO TAKE LESS THAN 3 DAYS • IT WOULD HAVE TO BE OVERWHELMING IN SCOPE AND POWER • TIED INTO THE IDEA OF THE INDIRECT APPROACH

31. OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL • THE INDIRECT APPROACH • USE OF INFORMATION WARFARE TO BLIND DEFENSES • USE OF BIOAGENTS TO DESTROY COMPUTERS • USE OF SIMILAR AGENTS TO DISRUPT TELEPHONE, RADIO, AND TELEVISION • WAY IS PREPARED BY EPIDEMIC OF A POWERFUL FLU

32. OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL • THE INDIRECT APPROACH • THE FLU IS SPRAYED OVER THE ISLAND BY STEALTH GLIDERS CONTROLLED BY THE PRC • WHEN FLU TAKES FULL EFFECT INFORMATION WARFARE IS INITIATED • SPECIAL FORCES USING NON-LETHAL CHEMICAL AGENTS TAKES OVER KEY COMMAND AND CONTROL SYSTEMS

33. OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL • THE INDIRECT APPROACH • USING LOW FLYING AIRCRAFT, WEAPONS AND VEHICLE PARKS ARE SPRAYED WITH IRRITANT CHEMICAL AGENTS THAT WILL MAKE THEIR USE DIFFICULT AND REQUIRE DECONTAMINATION • THE FIFTH COLUMN -- WHO HAVE BEEN IMMUNIZED TO THE FLU WILL THEN TAKE OVER TV AND RADIO TO BEGIN THE PROCESS OF EDUCATION OF THE PUBLIC

34. OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL • THE NEUTRALIZATION OF “BIG BROTHER” • USING AGENT IN PLACE ASSETS AND INFORMATION WARFARE • U.S. SATELLITES ARE TEMPORARILY DISABLED -- THIS WILL APPEAR TO BE A NATURAL GLITCH • U.S. MILITARY PERSONNEL -- PARTICULARLY USAF, NAVAL, AND FAST DEPLOYING U.S. ARMY GROUND FORCES WILL COME DOWN WITH THE FLU

35. OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL • THE NEUTRALIZATION OF “BIG BROTHER” • USING AGENT IN PLACE ASSETS AND INFORMATION WARFARE • PSYCHOLOGICAL WARFARE WILL HAVE BEGUN EARLIER WITH ARTICLES INDICATING THE THEME “WHY FIGHT FOR TAIWAN” • NON-LETHAL BIO AGENTS WILL BE USED TO NEUTALIZE ANY FAST DEPLOYING U.S. FORCE, PARTICULARLY USAF AIRCRAFT

36. OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL • THE FALL OF TAIWAN • LANDING FORCE OF SPECIAL TROOPS WOULD BE HIDDEN IN SPECIFICALLY CONSTRUCTED SHIPS -- Erskine Childers: THE RIDDLE OF THE SANDS • LAND AT KEY TAIWANESE PORTS • TROOPS WILL BE DRESSED SIMILARLY TO NATIONALIST FORCES • GOVERNMENT OF LOCAL TAIWANESE WITH PRC CONNECTIONS WILL BE NAMED, AND THEY WILL CALL FOR CALM FROM THE POPULACE

37. OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL • THE FALL OF TAIWAN • CHINESE MISSILES WILL COMMAND THE FORMOSA STRAITS • CHINESE KILO CLASS SUBS WILL PATROL OFF TAIWAN TO INTERCEPT AND STOP ANY U.S. NAVY TASK FORCE • TAIWAN AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS WILL BE IMMEDIATELY RESTORED UNDER PLA CONTROL

38. OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL • THE OTHER SIDE OF THE DOUBLE STEAL -- THE FALL AND OCCUPATION OF SOUTH KOREA • NORTH KOREA USES A SIMILAR SYSTEM TO TAKE SOUTH KOREA • BUT, THERE ARE U.S. TROOPS STATIONED IN SOUTH KOREA • PLAN TO DEAL WITH THEM

39. OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL • THE OTHER SIDE OF THE DOUBLE STEAL -- THE FALL AND OCCUPATION OF SOUTH KOREA • U.S. TROOPS ARE LOCATED IN ENCLAVES AND NOT AMONG THE GENERAL POPULATION • THEY WOULD BE NEUTRALIZED WITH ATTACKS USING NON-LETHAL FLU, AND DEGRADING CHEMICAL AGENTS FOR WEAPONS AND VEHICLE PARKS • SINCE ROKA AND U.S. HAVE C&C AREAS, THEY WOULD BE NEUTRALIZED USING NON-LETHAL AGENTS AND SPECIAL OPERATIONS UNITS

40. OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL • THE OTHER SIDE OF THE DOUBLE STEAL -- THE FALL AND OCCUPATION OF SOUTH KOREA • THE NORTH KOREAN ARMY IS REPUTED TO HAVE AMONG THE BEST TRAINED SPECIAL FORCES IN THE WORLD • THEY HAVE BEEN TESTING THE DEFENSES OF SOUTH KOREA FOR DECADES • THEY KNOW WHERE THE HOLES ARE

41. OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL • THE OTHER SIDE OF THE DOUBLE STEAL -- THE FALL AND OCCUPATION OF SOUTH KOREA • HERE’S HOW ITS DONE • CRIPPLE C&C SYSTEM WITH USE OF NON-LETHAL CHEMICALS AND BIO-AGENTS • ACTIVATION OF TH COLUMN FOR PSYCHOLOGICAL AND DISRUPTIVE OPERATIONS • INFACT THE S. KOREAN POPULATION WITH POWERFUL BUT NON-LETHAL FLU VIRUS • USE POWERFUL NON LETHAL BIO-CHEMICAL AGENTS TO FORCE DECONTAMINATION OF VEHICLES AND EQUIPMENT

42. OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL • THE OTHER SIDE OF THE DOUBLE STEAL -- THE FALL AND OCCUPATION OF SOUTH KOREA • HERE’S HOW ITS DONE • USE OF EMP • USE OF NKPA SPEICAL FORCES -- SNIPER BRIGADES FOR DISRUPTOR MISSIONS AND SEIZURE OF KEY POSITION AND TERRAIN • USE OF TUNNELS NOT DISCOVERED TO MOVE BALANCE OF STRKING FORCE INTO SOUTH KOREA

43. OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL • THE OTHER SIDE OF THE DOUBLE STEAL -- THE FALL AND OCCUPATION OF SOUTH KOREA • HERE’S HOW ITS DONE • NORTH KOREA SEEDS SKIES AROUND SOUTH KOREA WITH BIO AGENTS TO DISRUPT INCOMING U.S. REINFORCMENTS -- BY PLANE • S. KOREAN AIR BASES SPRAYED WITH DISRUPTIVE AGENTS TO PRECLUDE THEIR IMMEDIATE USE

44. OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL • U.S. RESPONSE • AS IN TAIWAN SITUATION. ONLY POSSIBILITY IS A BREAK-IN OPERATION • THOUSANDS OF U.S. LIVES AT STAKE, AND TO TAKE BACK S. KOREA WOULD INVOLVE DEATHS OF THOUSANDS OF KOREAN • NO U.S. PRESIDENT SHOULD HAVE TO MAKE THIS DECISION

45. OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL • LESSONS FOR THE FUTURE • NEED TO DEVELOP MEASURES TO COUNTER DISRUPTOR WEAPONS AGAINST C&C AND INDUSTRIAL INFRASTRUCTURE • CONSIDERATION NEED TO BE GIVEN TO ALL CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS THAT ARE NOT LETHAL AND PROGRAMS DEVELOPED TO NEGATE THEIR EFFECT

46. OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL • LESSONS FOR THE FUTURE • IF WE IGNORE THE LESSONS OF THE PAST, THESE NEW TYPE OF WEAPONS CAN REDUCE AMERICA’S MILITARY FROM THE BEST TECHNOLOGICAL FORCE IN THE WORLD, TO USING BOWS AND ARROWS • SURRENDER MIGHT BE OUR ONLY OPTION