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Transforming Scenario Narratives into Study Cases

Transforming Scenario Narratives into Study Cases. Michael Bailey, P.E. Modeling Subcommittee Meeting, June 27-28, 2018. WECC’s Mission To assure the near and long-term reliability of the Bulk Electric System in the Western Interconnection. Focus on Reliability. Load / End Use Patterns?

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Transforming Scenario Narratives into Study Cases

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  1. Transforming Scenario Narratives into Study Cases Michael Bailey, P.E. Modeling Subcommittee Meeting, June 27-28, 2018 Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  2. WECC’s Mission • To assure the near and long-term reliability of the Bulk Electric System in the Western Interconnection. Focus on Reliability Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  3. Load / End Use Patterns? Adequacy? Capacity? Stability? Operations? Voltage Support? Flexibility? Constraints? Infrastructure? Contingencies? Protection? Coordination? Cyber & Physical Security? Technology Innovations? Reliability & Scenario Drivers • Expectations? • Economics? • Risks? • Drivers? • Policy? • Societal, Cultural, Environmental? • Quality of Service? • Market Dynamics? • Geospatial? • Demographic? • Fuel Sources? • Contracts? • Financing & Investment? Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  4. How might customer demand for electric services in the Western Interconnection evolve as new technologies and policies create more market options, and with that, what risks and opportunities may emerge for the power industry in sustaining electric reliability? Scenario Development - Focus Question Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  5. The changing nature of electric customer demand How might customer demand shift in the Western Interconnection (state-level analysis) Which technologies will be important and how might they evolve? What will be market dynamics in technology adoption? What energy policies at both State and Federal levels will be important and influential? What kinds of risks might we see for power reliability? Will there by opportunities to redefine and shift how reliability is met? As all of this occurs, how will a sustainable, effective and reliable power system form and be maintained? What risks to reliability might we experience related to the interconnectedness of the natural gas and electricity systems? How might increasing use of distributed energy resources change customers’ needs for a Bulk Power System based on long, inter-regional transmission lines? Scenario Development - Key Factors Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  6. Scenario Matrix with Description Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  7. Scenario Development Cycle Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  8. Scenario Development Cycle We’re Here Now Matrix Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  9. Scenario Development Modeling Matrix Scoping Engagement Modeling Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  10. Tool Driven Studies Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  11. Question Driven Studies New Approach Scenario Question(s) Scoping Available Study Resources Augment Tool Suite as Needed Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  12. Identify scenario questions to be answered. • Scope a Study Approach: • Tools, • Models, • Data, • Methods, • Expertise, • Craft study approach. Scenario Modeling Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  13. Scoping a Study Approach Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  14. Scoping a Study Approach Questions to be Answered Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  15. Scoping a Study Approach Study Resources Questions to be Answered Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  16. Scoping a Study Approach Study Resources Questions to be Answered Study Approach Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  17. Study Scoping Matrix Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  18. Study Scoping Matrix Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  19. Study Scoping Matrix Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  20. Study Scoping Matrix Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  21. Study Scoping Matrix Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  22. Study Resources • Production Cost • Power Flow • Capital Cost • Stochastics • Predictive Analytics • Geospatial • Consultants • National Labs • Stakeholders • Other . . . Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  23. Scenario Scoping Players Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  24. Scenario Scoping Players Study Approach Alternatives & Recommendations SDS Approved Study Approach Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  25. Questions Michael Bailey mbailey@wecc.biz Western Electricity Coordinating Council

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