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What If… The Washington Region Grew Differently?

What If… The Washington Region Grew Differently?. February 2005 Public Meeting on Alternative Transportation and Land-Use Scenarios National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board. Study of “What If” Scenarios.

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What If… The Washington Region Grew Differently?

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  1. What If…The Washington Region Grew Differently? February 2005 Public Meeting on Alternative Transportation and Land-Use Scenarios National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board

  2. Study of “What If” Scenarios • What ifjob and housing growth were shifted? What if new roads or transit were built? • How would 2030 travel conditions change? • Not looking at “how to,” just “what if.”

  3. Historical and Forecast Trends

  4. The Washington Region • Approximately 3,000 square miles • Includes 4.5 million people and 2.8 million jobs • The National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board (TPB) prepares a financially constrained, 30-year transportation plan for the region

  5. Employment is Growing Faster than Population 1970: 3 Million 2000: 4.5 Million 1970: 1.5 Million 2000: 2.8 Million 2000: 4.5 Million 2030: 6.2 Million 2000: 2.8 Million 2030: 4.2 Million

  6. The Highway System Won’t Keep Pace 2000: 109 Million 2030: 150 Million 2000: 15,300 Miles 2030: 17,600 Miles

  7. Most Transportation Dollars Are Needed for MaintenanceLittle money is available for new transportation projects New Roads and Transit* 23% 77% Operations & Preservation* * Based on region’s 2003 Constrained Long-Range Plan

  8. Congested Flow Congested Flow (Average Speed 30 to 50 mph) (Average Speed 30 to 50 mph) Stop and Go Conditions Stop and Go Conditions (Average Speed < 30 mph) (Average Speed < 30 mph) Most of the Beltway Will Be Stop and GoEvening Highway Congestion 2000 and 2030 2000 2030

  9. Land Use ScenariosWhat are the key issues?

  10. Issue #1: Job Growth is Outpacing Household Growth Growth 2010 – 2030 (Thousands) Additional Households Needed to Balance Jobs Forecast Job Growth The region must “import” workers from as far away as West Virginia and Pennsylvania Forecast Household Growth Assumes 1.5 Workers/Household

  11. Regional Activity Cluster What if more people who worked here lived here? WV Scenario #1: “More Households” • Increase household growth to balance forecast job growth • Locate households in regional “Activity Clusters” Balt. VA Increase household growth by 200,000

  12. Issue #2: Workers are Living Farther Away from Their Jobs • Inner jurisdictions – most job growth • Outer jurisdictions – lion’s share of household growth The average commute is more than 30 minutes.

  13. Regional Activity Cluster What if people lived closer to their jobs? Scenario #2A: “Households In” • Shift household growth to inner jurisdictions (to get people closer to jobs) Shift 84,000 households

  14. Regional Activity Cluster What if jobs were located closer to where people live? Scenario #2B: “Jobs Out” • Shift job growth to outer jurisdictions (to get jobs closer to new housing) Shift 82,000 jobs

  15. Issue #3: East-West Divide A 1999 Brookings Institution report highlighted disparities between the eastern and western parts of the region Job Growth Rate 1990 – 2000

  16. Up to 30 minutes Up to 40 minutes Over 40 minutes Issue #3: East-West DivideWest-bound travel clogs the roads during morning rush hour Average Commute Time Morning Rush Hour

  17. Regional Activity Cluster What if there were more development on the eastern side of the region? Scenario #3: “Region Undivided” • Shift job and household growth from West to East Shift 57,000 households and 114,000 jobs

  18. Outside Transit Station Areas 30% 70% Inside Transit Station Areas 20% 80% Issue #4: Most Growth Located Outside Transit Station Areas Employment Growth 2010 to 2030 Household Growth 2010 to 2030

  19. What if people lived and worked closer to transit? Scenario #4: “Transit Oriented” • Locate job and household growth around transit stations Metro Rail Commuter Rail Bus Shift 125,000 households and 150,000 jobs

  20. Analyzing the Scenarios

  21. Vehicle Miles of Travel Per Person Forecast Change in VMT per capita, 2010-2030 VMT per capita in 2010: 23.4 miles per person per day

  22. Under the “More Households” Scenario, the average person would drive two miles less per day. 2030 Baseline: 24.2 miles/ person 2030 Scenario #1: 22.1 miles/ person

  23. Transit Use Forecast percentage-point change In transit mode share, 2010-2030 Transit mode-share in 2010: 16%

  24. Morning CongestionForecast change in lane-miles of peak-period AM congestion, 2010-2030 Lane miles of congestion in 2010: 1,700 miles

  25. What do the scenarios tell us?

  26. The scenarios show some favorable trends. • Transit trips would increase. • The growth in morning congestion would be slowed.

  27. Why aren’t the impacts greater?

  28. Most jobs and housing for 2030 are already in place. 2030 Households 13% Underway or in the pipeline Growth by 2010 Already in place Growth by 2030 15% Households in 2000 Affected by scenarios 72% (Of course, some of this might be rezoned or redeveloped in the future…)

  29. Significant change takes time. • Scenarios only look out to 2030, but impacts may be greatest in 2040, 2050, and beyond • For example, just look at how long it took to get Metro in place . . . Courtesy of WMATA

  30. Scenario impacts may be large locally, but small regionally. Before After

  31. Is there a way to magnify the impacts?

  32. The impacts might be greater if transportation improvements were added. For example: New roads, bridges, transit + = ? Future stages of the study will include transportation scenarios…

  33. Impacts might be even greater if we combined scenarios. • For example, what if we combined: • Scenario #3 (Region Undivided) • Scenario #4 (Transit Oriented Development) • and transportation improvements ? New roads, bridges, transit + + = ? Future stages of the study will look at such combinations…

  34. Next Study Phase • Alternative transportation scenarios • New rail lines? • New bus routes? • New roads? • New bridges? • Combining transportation and land use scenarios Combining Scenarios 4 Alternative Transportation Scenarios 3 Alternative Land Use Scenarios Baseline

  35. For more information, contact the Transportation Planning Board: (202) 962-3200 TPBPublicComment@mwcog.org www.mwcog.org/transportation

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