NCEP’s Climate Forecast System as a National Model

1. NCEP’s Climate Forecast System as a National Model Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director, National Centers for Environmental Prediction “Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin” 32nd Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop October 22, 2007

2. Overview • Recent Climate Prediction Advancements at NCEP • Ongoing Strategic Priorities • Challenges • Building Update

3. Forecast NOAA’s NWS Model Production Suite Oceans HYCOM WaveWatch III Climate CFS Coupled Hurricane GFDL HWRF MOM3 1.7B Obs/Day Satellites 99.9% Dispersion ARL/HYSPLIT Regional NAM WRF NMM Global Forecast System Global Data Assimilation Severe Weather WRF NMM/ARW Workstation WRF Short-Range Ensemble Forecast North American Ensemble Forecast System WRF: ARW, NMM ETA, RSM Air Quality GFS, Canadian Global Model NAM/CMAQ Rapid Update for Aviation NOAH Land Surface Model

4. U.S. Seasonal Temperature - Skill 0.5 Month Lead – 4 Year Running Average vs. GPRA Goal • Climate Forecast System: First dynamic operational climate forecast model implemented August 2004 • Climate Test Bed: established in 2005and focused on improving the Climate Forecast System and related seasonal forecast products • Unprecedented increasesin the skill of CPC official seasonal outlooks: (20% or more; O’Lenic et al. 2007) due in part to CFS and to CTB activities (e.g. consolidation tool)

5. Ongoing Strategic Priorities • Accelerate improvements in the CFS through the R2O & “O2R” paradigm • Enhance NCEP’s role in the transition process • Be a partner within the multi model ensemble enterprise

6. “Operations to Research (O2R)” To Accelerate R2O; Must Support “O2R” • Goal • To accelerate improvements in the NCEP Climate Forecast System by providing the Climate Forecast System (CFS) to the broad research community • Deliverables • CFS, data, and support services (e.g. helpdesk facility) to user community • Annual workshop on CFS • Mechanism • Managed operational program between NCEP, Climate Program Office (CPO), and Climate Test Bed (CTB) • Benefits • Provides support for research with CFS outside NCEP (ARCs, NSF, etc) • Maximizes opportunities for community participation

7. “Operations to Research (O2R)” • NCEP will provide • Operational models (CFS, GFS) and data (e.g. reforecasts, reanalysis) • Helpdesk facilities, training for O2R staff, web services • Points of contact for collaboration • Support for CTB Seminar Series • CPO will provide • Support for helpdesk, training, points of contact, web services • Grants Program (AOs) • CTB will provide • Transition Infrastructure for pulling in the Research (R2O) • Links between Test beds (e.g. CTB and HTB) • GAPS • Computing support for dissemination of models and data • Resources for competitive transition activities

8. Challenges with Multi-Model (MME) System • Lack of a National Strategy on MME, including insufficient (US) computer resources for generating hindcast data sets • Lack of a concept of operations • MOUs with partners (International and US) for exchanges of operational models and real time forecast data • CTB resource limitations • Insufficient computer resources to run hindcasts for other organizations • Skill assessments • Post-processing, calibration, consolidation, and preparation for operations

9. 268,762 RSF; includes 800+ Feds, contractors and visiting scientists 5 NCEP Centers NESDIS research and satellite services OAR Air Resources Laboratory 40 spaces for visiting scientists NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Predictionat the UMD Research Park (M-Square) Construction Schedule

10. NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction Recent Activities Construction photographs – October 2, 2007

11. NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction located at University of MD M2 Research Park NORTH

12. Summary • CFS and CTB advancing nicely • NCEP’s role in R2O implies greater support for O2R. (Research and transition activities need to build off the operational infrastructure.) • New NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction should help facilitate

13. Appendix

14. NCEP’s Role in the Model Transition Process EMC and NCO have critical roles in the transition from NOAA R&D to operations Effort Other Agencies Universities International Service Centers Field Offices EMC NOAA Research NCO EMC Observation System Life cycle Support Service Centers User OPS Test Beds JCSDA CTB DTC JHT Operations R&D Delivery Transition from Research to Operations Launch List – Model Implementation Process Concept of Operations Requirements Criteria Forecast benefits, Efficiency, IT Compatibility, Sustainability

15. Applying the “Funnel” to the Transition Process 1. Large “volume” of R&D, funded through AOs, Agency Labs… 2. Smaller set of R&D products suitable for operations. 3. Systematic transition steps Research-to-Operations (R2O). Deliver skill-optimized forecast products founded on CTB-based innovation and& customer feedback; Bring in customer requests 4. Systematic transition steps Operations-to-Applications (O2A). 5. Delivery of products to the diverse community and customer feedback 2 R2O NCEP is uniquely positioned to provide an operational infra-structure for the transition processes N C E P 1 R&D Community CTB CPC O2R 3 EMC CFS OPERATIONS 4 R2O O2A User Community 5 CTB role: facilitate transitions for the CPC specific product range (6-10 day, week 2, monthly, seasonal)