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1 st MEDCOF & 10 st SEECOF

1 st MEDCOF & 10 st SEECOF. Sources for Climate outlook for winter season 2013/14. Dragan Mihi ć RHMS of Serbia / SEEVCCC. Climate outlook for winter season. Based on:. ECMWF – The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. EUROSIP.

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1 st MEDCOF & 10 st SEECOF

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  1. 1st MEDCOF & 10st SEECOF Sources for Climate outlook for winterseason 2013/14 Dragan Mihić RHMS of Serbia / SEEVCCC

  2. Climate outlook for winter season Based on: • ECMWF – The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts • EUROSIP • RCM-SEEVCCC – Regional Climate Model of the South East European Virtual Climate Change Center • WMOLC-MME – WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble • IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society

  3. Climate outlook for winter season 2013/14 for Serbia - temperature

  4. Climate outlook for winter season 2013/14 for Serbia - precipitation

  5. Climate outlook for winter season 2013/14 for Serbia - conclusion • Normally cold and humid winter for the most of the country • Somewhat warmer in northern and western regions • Precipitation deficit in western and south-western parts

  6. Climate outlook for winter season 2013/14 for SEECOF region - ECMWF • No signal for temperature and almost for precipitation • Exceptions: • island of Crete and east cost of Mediterranean, above normal temp. • some parts of central Balkans, below normalprecipitation; western part of central Turkey, islands of Crete and Cyprus, above normalprecip.

  7. Climate outlook for winter season 2013/14 for SEECOF region - EUROSIP • Aabove normal over Balkan Peninsula, no signal for temperature over other parts of SEECOF region • No clear signal for precipitation

  8. Climate outlook for winter season 2013/14 for SEECOF region - SEEVCCC • Above normal temperature: northern half of Balkan Peninsula, central and easternmost parts of Turkey and Caucasus region • Precipitation: • Above: Carpathian Mountains, Caucasus region, Adriatic and Black Sea coasts • Below: western and southern parts of both Balkan Peninsula and Turkey • Normal: all other parts

  9. Climate outlook for winter season 2013/14 for SEECOF region – WMOLC-MME • Temperature: above normal in Israel, on Carpathian mountains, western, south-western and south Balkan Peninsula • Precipitation: no signal for the most of region, below normal on Cyprus, above normal in central part of south Caucasus region

  10. Climate outlook for winter season 2013/14 for SEECOF region – IRI Temperature: above normal most part of Balkans, Middle east and Caucasus region Precipitation, no clear signal

  11. Climate outlook for winter season 2013/14 – comparing with the last winter

  12. Climate outlook for winter season 2013/14 - conclusion • use EUROSIP/ WMOLC-MME for the moment • consensus on reference period, standardize products to be used • maybe sub-regions and sub-season

  13. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION ! WWW. HIDMET.GOV.RS WWW. SEEVCCC.RS

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