MaRIE 1.0: Ma tter R adiation I nteractions in E xtremes 1.0 Mary Hockaday 6 June 2013 2013 Mission Committee talk

1. MaRIE 1.0: Matter Radiation Interactions in Extremes 1.0 Mary Hockaday 6 June 2013 2013 Mission Committee talk

2. We have four major themes for today’s discussions • Introduce myself • Reframing of the mission need for MaRIE 1.0 • Provide a status of our path to CD-0 • Obtain feedback on approach We are modifying our framing of our mission need based on feed back from the Mission Committee. Let’s see how it’s coming along.

3. At the contract transition the need for Los Alamos National Laboratory to have a signature facility was reaffirmed Historically LANSCE has played a role. MaRIE builds on LANSCE’s success. • LANSCE-generated Proton beam will be coupled directly into MaRIE • LANSCE provides experience in Accelerators, User Facilities, and Material Science

4. MaRIE 1.0 is the most NW-relevant subset (~$1B) of MaRIE. MPDH: Multi-Probe Diagnostic Hall Dynamic experiments utilizing premier x-ray scattering capability at high energy and high repetition frequency with simultaneous charged particle dynamic imaging M4: Making, Measuring & Modeling Materials Facility State of the art resource for materials synthesis and control, with national security infrastructure Unique very hard x-ray XFEL Unique simultaneous photon-proton imaging measurements

5. We have been working towards our vision of MaRIE since contract transition. Path to CD-0 Pre-conceptual Proposal Facility Definition Developing the Science Case (2013) LANS Contract Transition Concept Definition/Internal Competition MaRIE selection Pre-MaRIE (2012) (2010) (2006-2008) (2009) We are focusing on the NNSA customer LANS BUSINESS-SENSITIVE INFORMATION

6. The NNSA New Facilities call was an opportunity to address decadal ST&E facility needs for Stewardship

7. As we look to the future three things are certain • The next and succeeding generations of stewards will need to make decisions • The nation, its allies and its adversaries must have confidence in those decisions • Our stewards will use the best computation, simulation and experimental toos we have to inform those decisions. Annual Assessment Significant Finding Investigations Life Extension Programs “It’s a matter of production and capability of doing it. As you know, ah, you go to war with the army you have—not the army you might want or wish to have at a later time.” –Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, 2004

8. Our stewards will be facing a different stockpile from today’s- one that was built and tested in the era of underground testing. • There will be changes in materials long term • Aging changes materials • Replacement materials may not be able to be made exactly the same way • Explicit decisions to change materials for manufacturability or sustainability reasons • Explicit decisions to change materials for performance gains. • Risk increases as weapons age, MaRIE can help mitigate those risks. MaRIE offers the capability to study and better understand how these changes will affect the performance of the weapons.

9. Predictive capability for the NEP is not yet sufficient to protect against irrational confidence We have moved to how do we best test our stewards!!!

10. MaRIE 1.0 adds to the tool set our stewards will need to improve confidence in their decisions Life Extension Programs Significant Finding Investigations W76-1 and other systems until retired W88 Alt 370 B61-12 Cruise Missile Annual Assessment IW-1 IW-2 IW-3 Materials Capability Review 2013

11. We asked ourselves, “What would we need to achieve a predictive, phase and process-aware understanding of materials performanceto support future stockpile decisions?” Phase-aware integrated models Process -aware integrated models Phase-aware EOS Multi-Scale Strength Models Multi-Mode Damage We are here We are here Analytical Isotropic Homogeneous Manufacturing/ synthesis Aging phenomena Interfaces/ compatibility Equation of State Damage/ Failure Strength/ Plasticity Process Aware Manufacturing Dynamic Materials Performance There is a symbiotic relationship between MaRIE and advanced computational power to achieve self consistent modeling

12. We have always used multiple facilities to acquire data at the appropriate time and length scales required to establish predictive capability

13. We take the evolution of mix and burn to provide an example of how integrating across scales and facilities is powerful

14. An example to consider is the validation of the mix model

15. Application to model though preliminary, is showing great promise

16. We developed a set of MaRIE 1.0 “First Experiments” that span the mission need AND set functional requirements for the facility Materials Capability Review 2013

17. Dead zones in IHE; present simulation method

18. Through the Multi-Probe Diagnostic Hall, MaRIE 1.0 provides a unique capability for simultaneous, multi-probe measurements of in situ transient phenomena in relevant dynamic extremes 42-keV XFEL allows multigranular sample penetration and multipulse dynamics without significant sample perturbation. MPDH provides a broad suite of loading conditions to the user. total Pu; Al MaRIE 1.0 elastic Proton microscopy provides absolute density (~1%) & velocities through sample volume. First Experiments

19. Multiple processes are required to produce well characterized Pu and we continue to be reminded about challenges associated with Pu

20. Example: Dynamic Performance of Plutonium and Surrogate Metals and Alloys The challenge is to observe the dynamic microstructure and phase evolution down to the sub-granular level Sub-mm resolution 100’s – 1000’s mm samples Sub-ns resolution, ~30 frames in 1 ms duration The first experiment: Multiple, simultaneous dynamic in situ diagnostics with resolution at the scale of nucleation sites (< 1 mm; ps – ns) See Garry’s Maskaly’s talk on why this could matter Marie allows us to break the problem apart. Slide 20

21. Lack of accurate predictive processing models leads to production inefficiency

22. Developing a coupled experimental and modeling approach to process-aware manufacturing based on solidification phenomena

23. First Experiment: Controlled Solidification and Phase Transformations Developing a coupled experimental and modeling approach to process-aware manufacturing based on solidification phenomena Solidification fronts 0.01 to 10 mm/ms Images from every 100 ns to 10’s of ms FOV 100 mm to see multiple grains Resolution of 500 nm for precipitates 0.1 – 5 mm penetration Temperature up to 2200 oC Heating/Cooling rates of 0.01 - 105oC/sec The goal: Advanced casting models with elemental and microstructure evolution using dynamic 3-D imaging of density, structure, temperature and elemental composition Density/Fluid Flow Radiography Protons Hard X-rays Diffraction - structure Mission: Cost efficient near-net shape components with controlled performance. Tunable X-rays Chemical composition The First Experiment: Complete 3-D reconstruction coupled to : Structure and elemental mapping during processing at M4 In situ density/structure at MPDH The model: New solidification models that incorporate fluid flow, nucleation and growth of microstructure Long term goal is product based specifications Slide 23 Team includes: Franz Freibert, Dave Teter, Robert Hackenberg, …

24. “First Experiments” define mission-driven functional requirements and reveal facility performance gaps Materials Capability Review 2013

25. “First Campaigns” are examples of how MaRIE 1.0 could help our Stockpile Stewards address today’s challenges if it were available today

26. New Facilities Process Outcome:“…we would expect to move MaRIE to CD-0 within 6 months” • “MaRIE was, by far, judged to be the most mature and well-motivated proposed facility” • “The cost estimate, schedule estimate, and technical feasibility of MaRIE are assessed to be at a level of fidelity beyond what is needed at this stage in the planning process” • “The technical capabilities provided by MaRIE could substantially advance our ability to maintain the stockpile, but only if utilized within the appropriate framework.” • “Acceptance of MaRIE for CD-0 will require a letter from the directors of LANL and LLNL that describes your commitment and plan for advancing the process and science of certification to make use of MaRIE.”

27. Changes in DOE and NNSA Leadership have impacted our path forward • The Directors’ letter continues to be worked • Optimal timing and delivery path is uncertain • Soliciting input from key stakeholders • FYNSP Budget Builds most likely will not wait for new leadership to be in place • Informal funding profile has been provided – FY20 construction start with peak no greater than 200 M a/year over 8 years – will entertain FY19 construction start

28. Notional CD-0 Schedule: Logic has been established; pacing is under discussion Selden Review of LLNL and LANL Letter Update Cost, Schedule, Risks, & Ref. Design Dec. 2012 Facility Definition Review (FFR’s, CDEP, and R&D) Draft Letter Final Letter / NNSA Conc. PSP Review Mar 2013 SFR / 1st Camp. Workshops Review of Scope, Schedule, Cost, Risks, & CD-0 package [BOG Endorsed] Update FFR’s Draft MNS Draft PRD Draft CDEP Update R&D Plan NNSA / APM ICR Review Respond / Revise Selden Review of Mission Need and Program Requirements Respond / Revise MNS Approved! Deeney: “12/13” Our goal is to position MaRIE 1.0 for CD-0 in CY 13 AND for a funding line in FY15 FYNSP request

29. We are grappling with what should our Acquisition Strategy be given that: • NNSA Management uncertainty • NNSA has requested a CD0 – initial cost range • Construction start no sooner than FY19 • Technical Risk exists in the XFEL and the detectors -- ~85M R&D required to mitigate • NMSSUP experience has left us cautious

30. Los Alamos is the right place for MaRIE • Our Stewards will utilize MaRIE to meet our mission challenges of the future • We have the expertise in weapons mission materials (Pu, HE,…) in a classified environment • LANSCE is a National User Facility • - We have experience optimizing the co-existence of basic and classified research • - Provides ~$1B infrastructure site credit towards MaRIE • - We have proven track record in running large accelerator based facilities • People are key to our future, and MaRIE is key to attracting and retaining the next generation of Stewards to Los Alamos “We have won the competition” We need your help to make MaRIE a reality!

31. MaRIE 1.0 will enable us to observe and ultimately control how mesoscale materials properties affect weapons performance A mission need exists for a facility focused on predicting and controlling materials in extreme environments, exploiting in situ transient measurements on real materials in relevant dynamic extremes to address nuclear weapons challenges in qualification and certification. Achieving controlled functionality at the mesoscale through co-design is the frontier of materials research. MaRIE 1.0 meets this need with a robust preconceptual reference design that is grounded in community-defined mission and scientific requirements. MaRIE provides a unique tool set for our future Stewards. Definitely a “Killer Capability.”

32. MaRIE 1.0 science and mission is already attracting the best and the brightest Garry Maskaly XTD Amy Clarke MST MaRIE Generation MaRIE Generation Cindy Bolme WX Kyle Ramos WX Richard Sandberg MPA

33. Backup Materials Capability Review 2013

34. MaRIE External Advisory Board Mission Need Subcommittee • Bob Selden, Chair • Mike Anastasio • Charlie Curtis • Roger Falcone • Sig Hecker • Rus Hemley • John Immele • Don Kerr • Steve Koonin • Cherry Murray • The task of this Subcommittee is to provide me advice, feedback, and advocacy as we lay the groundwork for a communication strategy with all possible stakeholders that articulates • A joint (LANL-LLNL) vision for how we qualify components and certify the performance of the future stockpile using the scientific tools and data we can obtain as we anticipate a smaller and different stockpile that is further removed from underground test; • The mission need for the MaRIE CD-0 package including the assurance that mission need has been translated to appropriate and cost-effective facility requirements; and, • A compelling strategy for extending the lifetime and sustaining the science base of the stockpile that is appreciated and supported by the broader community and our colleagues at the Pentagon.

35. MaRIE 1.0 adds to the tool set our stewards will need to improve confidence in their decisions Life Extension Programs Significant Finding Investigations W76-1 and other systems until retired W88 Alt 370 B61-12 Cruise Missile Annual Assessment IW-1 IW-2 IW-3 Materials Capability Review 2013