Atmospheric-Ocean Forecast Experiments in the New Jersey Coastal Zone

1. Atmospheric-Ocean Forecast Experiments in the New Jersey Coastal Zone • by • Hernan G. Arango • Hai Pan, Scott M. Glenn, Michael Crowley, Dale B. Haidvogel, Roni Avissar • Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences & Center for Environmental Prediction • Rutgers University • New Brunswick, NJ • January 27, 1999

2. Outline • Coupled atmosphere-ocean modeling system • Forecast cycles and ensemble • Sensitivities to initialization and atmospheric forcing • Analysis of 1999 upwelling event

3. LEO meters ROMS Bathymetry

4. LEO meters ROMS Bathymetry

5. meters Node A ROMS Bathymetry

6. Initialization • Continuous initialization from previous forecasting cycle ensemble • MODAS (Bob Rhodes and Dan Fox, NRL).

7. Initialization • Continuous initialization from previous forecasting cycle ensemble • MODAS (Bob Rhodes and Dan Fox, NRL). • Forcing • RAMS surface winds and fluxes every half-hour • NOGAPS/COAMPS surface winds and fluxes every twelve hours • One-way coupling via atmospheric boundary layer • Wind-induced waves from WAM and LEO-15 node • Zero fresh water flux (E-P) • No Tides

8. Navy Products NOAA & Rutgers Global Atmospheric Forecasts NOGAPS NCEP I.C. B.C. I.C. B.C. Local Atmospheric Forecasts COAMPS 27 km 6 hours RAMS 4 km 30 min Atm. Forcing Atm. Forcing Ocean Models ROMS PBL SBL BBL WBL MODAS (POM) I.C. Waves WAM Wave Models

9. Boundary Layer Schematic O H H L o n g w a v e Shortwave O E v a p H H

10. Initialization • Continuous initialization from previous forecasting cycle ensemble • MODAS • Forcing • RAMS surface winds and fluxes every half-hour • NOGAPS/COAMPS surface winds and fluxes every twelve hours • One-way coupling via atmospheric boundary layer • Wind-induced waves from LEO-15 node • Zero fresh water flux (E-P) • No Tides • Assimilation • Melding of SST and hydrography (OI) once a day • Surface currents from CODAR (nudging)

11. Ocean-Atmosphere • Forecasting Cycles

12. Forecast Cycle - July, 1999 Ship/AUV Data Ship/AUV Data Ship/AUV Data Ship/AUV Data Ship/AUV Data Ship/AUV Data Ship/AUV Data Ship/AUV Data Ship/AUV Data Ship/AUV Data Ship/AUV Data Ship/AUV Data Ship/AUV Data Sun. Mon. Tues. Wed. Thur. Fri. Sat. Forecast Day 4 Forecast Day 4 Day 1 Forecast Day 2 Forecast Day 3 D4 Day 1 Forecast Day 2 Forecast Day 3 D4 Day 1 Forecast Day 2 Forecast Day 3 Day 1 Forecast Day 2 Forecast Day 3 Rmt / Node Rmt / Node Remote Sensing / Node Data Remote Sensing / Node Data Remote Sensing / Node Data Remote Sensing / Node Data Model Run Model Run Model Run Model Run Nwcst Day 0 Day -2 Day -1 Nwcst Day 0 Assim Day -3 Day -2 Day -1 Nwcst Day 0 Day -2 Day -1 Nwcst Day 0 Assim Day -3 Day -2 Day -1 Sun. Mon. Tues. Wed. Thur. Fri. Sat. 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Day 1 Forecast Day 2 Forecast Day 3 Remote Sensing / Node Data Remote Sensing / Node Data Model Run Day -2 Day -1 Nwcst Day 0 Assim Day -3 Day -2 Day -1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 Forecast Day 4 Day 1 Forecast Day 2 Forecast Day 3 D4 Day 1 Forecast Day 2 Forecast Day 3 Rmt / Node Remote Sensing / Node Data Remote Sensing / Node Data Model Run Model Run Ship/AUV Data Ship/AUV Data Nwcst day 0 Day -2 Day -1 Nwcst Day 0

13. Sensitivity to • Initialization and Forcing

14. July 1999 - Tuckerton Winds

15. July 14, 1999 - 15:00 GMT Temperature Cross Sections 25 23 21 19 17 15 13 11 0 5 10 15 20 25 Temp (oC) Depth (m) Observations 0 5 10 15 20 Distance (km) 25 23 21 19 17 15 13 11 25 23 21 19 17 15 13 11 0 5 10 15 20 25 0 5 10 15 20 25 Depth (m) Depth (m) Temp (oC) Temp (oC) RAMS Forcing COAMPS Forcing 0 5 10 15 20 0 5 10 15 20 Distance (km) Distance (km)

16. AVHRR SST July 28, 1999 08:00 GMT COAMPS Forcing July 28, 1999 21:00 GMT 28 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 39:42N 39:40N 39:30N 39:30N 39:20N 39:18N 39:10N 74:24W 74:12W 74:00W 73:48W 74:20W 74:10W 74:00W 73:50W Surface Currents and Temperature (oC)

17. AVHRR SST July 28, 1999 08:00 GMT MODAS/RAMS Forcing July 28, 1999 21:00 GMT 28 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 39:42N 39:40N 39:30N 39:30N 39:20N 39:18N 39:10N 74:24W 74:12W 74:00W 73:48W 74:20W 74:10W 74:00W 73:50W Surface Currents and Temperature (oC)

18. AVHRR SST July 28, 1999 08:00 GMT RAMS Forcing July 28, 1999 21:00 GMT 28 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 39:40N 39:40N 39:30N 39:30N 39:20N 39:20N 39:10N 39:10N 74:20W 74:10W 74:00W 73:50W 74:20W 74:10W 74:00W 73:50W Surface Currents and Temperature (oC)

19. Upper Layer Along Shore, Time-integrated Transport (July, 1999) 104*m2

20. Bottom Layer Along Shore, Time-integrated Transport (July, 1999) 104*m2

21. 9 7 5 3 1 Ekman Pumping (m/day) Cross-Shelf Time Integrated Transport 20 15 10 5 0 -5 Utop Ubot Tauy offshore 104 * m2 39:42N onshore 26 27 28 29 30 31 39:30N Along-Shelf Time Integrated Transport 25 15 5 -5 Vtop Vbot Taux North 39:18N 104 * m2 74:24W 74:12W 74:00W 73:48W South July 28, 1999 26 27 28 29 30 31

23. Conclusions • Initial conditions generated by continuous assimilation of CODAR produce better forecasts than cold starts using MODAS without CODAR assimilation. • High spatial and temporal resolution RAMS produced better ocean forecasts than courser COAMPS forcing. • Offshore of the the upwelling center: • Forecasts indicate the upper layer offshore transport exceeds • the Ekman transport. • The bottom layer onshore transport does not fully compensate. • Upwelling flow is 3-D with cold bottom water flowing in from the North. • There is a need for a coupled, high-resolution ocean-atmosphere system that can be run locally in forecast mode.

24. Future System Improvements • Estuaries • River runoff (Signell & Hetland). • Tides (Bogden & Chant). • ESSE assimilation (Lermusiaux). • Coupled bio-optical model (EcomSim - Bisset). • Sediment resuspension and transport (Styles & Glenn).

25. R.U. C.O.O.L.

26. R.U. C.O.O.L.