Where are we today in renewable heating and cooling and what challenges remain?

1. Where are we today in renewable heating and cooling and what challenges remain? Tobias Fleiter Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research

2. POLICY CONFERENCE

3. Background: 2 main studies • EC tender study accomplished in 2016 (DG ENER) • First full end-use energy balance for EU 28 (+3) • Reference year 2012 Mapping and analyses of the current and future heating/cooling fuel deployment • Ongoing Horizon 2020 project • Update for the year 2015 • Inclusion of technologies

4. Total final energy in 2015 (EU28) H&C about 50% of FED High importancespaceandprocessheating Total final energy 2015: ~12,600 TWh

5. Sector comparison H&C FED in 2015 (EU28) End-usesbysector: • Industry: >80% forprocessheat • Residential: >75% forspaceheating • Tertiary: highestshareofcoolingcomparedtoothersectors (~10%)

6. Residential sector: FED H&C in 2015 by energy carrier (EU28) • Typesofenergycarriers: • Fossil: 61% • Renewables: 17% • El+DH: 22%

7. Residential sector: FED H&C in 2015 by country • Hugediversityacross countries! • Max RES-share ~50%

8. Share of Renewables in H/C over time(Source: Eurostat SHARES project) Top 5 countries RES H&C shareincreasing in most countries EU28: • 2006: 10% • 2015: 17%

9. Residential sector: FED for H&C by single/multi family houses in 2015 (EU28) SFH twice as important as multi-family houses

10. Residential sector: Share of SFH in total space heating energy demand (2015) Importance of SFH varies heavily by member state!

11. Key messages • H&C isveryimportantwith ~50% of EU28 FED • Residential sector still dominated by fossil fuels (EU28, 2015): • Fossil: 61% (natural gas 43%) • Renewables: 17% • El+DH: 22% • SFH consume twice as much energy as MFH do (EU28) • Huge heterogeneity among countries However: The local situation is always different 

12. Contact Tobias Fleiter Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research Breslauer Str. 48 76139 Karlsruhe, Germany Tobias.Fleiter@isi.fhg.de +49 721 6809-208 Thank you very much for your attention! • EC tender study „Mapping and analyses of the current and future heating/cooling fuel deployment “ Download reports and data sheets: http://www.isi.fraunhofer.de/isi-de/x/projekte/mapping-heating_331945.php • HeatRoadmap Europe IV (Horizon 2020, ongoing) Download Brochure: http://heatroadmap.eu/publications.phpReport to follow soon

13. Join #EUSEW17 www.eusew.eu ‘EU Sustainable Energy Week’ @euenergyweek & #EUSEW17 ‘EU Sustainable Energy Week’

14. One minute on barriers... Examplary use case: choice of heating system at the time of renewal: • Understanding barriersrequiresbeingveryspecific: • Whatisthe „usecase“? • Who makesthedecision? • Whatareotheractorsandhow do theyaffectthedecision? • Which RES technology? Forwhichapplication? • Whichcountry? • ..

15. Residential sector: H&C FED by end-use in 2015 Space heating dominant in nearly all countries Coolingonlyhaslowshares in southern countries Hot waterisrelativelysimilar in all countries