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Demographic Forecasting for Luton using POPGROUP

Demographic Forecasting for Luton using POPGROUP . Eddie Holmes Research Information Officer Luton Borough Council. Overview. Use of POPGROUP with migration scenarios: What Migration data to use Scenarios Household forecasts. Luton Background.

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Demographic Forecasting for Luton using POPGROUP

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  1. Demographic Forecasting for Luton using POPGROUP Eddie Holmes Research Information Officer Luton Borough Council

  2. Overview • Use of POPGROUP with migration scenarios: • What Migration data to use • Scenarios • Household forecasts

  3. Luton Background • Census, Luton’s population 202,300, 10% growth since 2001, 2012 MYE 205,800 • 74,300 households, with an average HH size of 2.71. Average HH size was 2.59 in 2001 • Evidence of very large households some up to 30 people • Strong population growth in urban areas • LBC considered pre 2011 MYE to be under-estimating population • High population density and limited space to build

  4. Luton Background • High population turn-over, estimated 70% of population either not born or moved to Luton since 2001 Census • High BME Population, 55% BME at 2011 Census • Large South Asian population • High international migration –’super-diverse’ over 100 languages and dialects spoken • New East European population, over 10,000 at last Census, evidence this is not short term migration

  5. Luton Population Growth 2001-2011

  6. Deprivation in Luton

  7. Forecasting scenarios • Trend international migration, high international migration, net nil migration & planned house building scenarios • Luton’s fertility rates from ONS used • Standard mortality rates used • Internal migration taken from a five year average of the ONS’ MYE components of change • CLG 2011 rates used for HH forecasts • POPGROUP and POPGROUP Derived Forecasts used for population and household projections

  8. Trend Migration • Eight year average of ONS components of change • Attempts to smooth peaks and troughs in migration, especially the rise from A8 EU Migration • Disadvantage if the shorter term trend is continued in long term e.g. greater EU migration

  9. High Migration • Five year average – same as ONS’ methods • Skewed toward higher migration from A8 accession in the last five years • Disadvantage if a short term trend is projected into future with exceptional events e.g. recession

  10. Net Nil Migration • Assumes net nil migration • Assumes that inward and outward migration cancel each other out

  11. Housing Target Constrained • Looks at what happens to the population if the projections are constrained to the planned house-building in Luton • The planned housing are based on capacity for house building from land use studies • Council policy to maintain balance between housing, employment and open space • This scenario used trend migration

  12. International Migration Data • What to use: Is ONS data fit for purpose? • Estimates from NINO registrations or Flag 4 data – is this any more accurate? • Comparing Census figures 2001 and 2011 – problem for Luton as 2001 figure was an under-estimate • Average of ONS components of change used as this was considered to be the best data available

  13. Migration Data

  14. Overseas NINO Registrations in Luton

  15. Forecast Comparisons

  16. Forecast Comparisons

  17. Population change by age group: Trend migration

  18. Household Projections • Household projections were produced for the forecasting scenarios • The POPGROUP derived forecast model was used • CLG’s 2011 interim rates projected to 2031 used

  19. HH Rate Issues • 2011 Interim rates based on pre Census 2011 migration and recession HH building, considered not fit for purpose by some • 2008 based rates based on data before the credit crunch – is this too optimistic?

  20. Household Projection Scenarios

  21. Implications of forecasts • The implications of the forecasts shows that Luton doesn’t have the capacity to meet its housing needs – ‘duty to cooperate’ from other authorities • Issues with CLG rates – are they adequately capturing household formation • Issue in Luton of HH formation in poor conditions – converted sheds, garages and unsuitable accommodation • Growth in areas of town with high BME population • High growth in demand for school places • The elderly population will have the highest levels of growth • High demand for elderly and young people’s services at a time of cuts

  22. Future Population Issues • High growth in elderly population • High growth in demand for school places • Future migration – Will it continue at same level, Romanians & Bulgarians given right to work in UK • Housing Benefit changes – already some anecdotal evidence of people moving from London to Luton because of the changes • Ward level projections • Ethnicity Projections

  23. Concluding remarks • Overview of population & household projections within an urban area and highly diverse population • Indication of our future work at Luton • Consultancy work – we have been commissioned to do work in a more rural area with a military population - alternative scenarios based on economic forecasts • Available for forecasting and demographic work • Any questions?

  24. Contact • Eddie Holmes • Edward.holmes@luton.gov.uk • Eddie.holmes@lutontradedservices.com • Tel: 01582 54 7093

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