1 / 28

Precipitation Verification Comparison among COSMO models (COSMO-I7, COSMO-EU, COSMO-7, COSMO-ME, COSMO-I2, COSMO-IT)

This study compares the precipitation verification of four different COSMO models at 7 km resolution (COSMO-I7, COSMO-7, COSMO-EU, COSMO-ME) with two models at 2 km resolution (COSMO-I2, COSMO-IT). The dataset consists of high-resolution rain gauge data from the COSMO dataset and Civil Protection Department. The study aims to analyze seasonal trends and the performance of each model version.

rhondat
Download Presentation

Precipitation Verification Comparison among COSMO models (COSMO-I7, COSMO-EU, COSMO-7, COSMO-ME, COSMO-I2, COSMO-IT)

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Precipitation verification comparison among COSMO-I7, COSMO-EU, COSMO-7, COSMO-ME, COSMO-I2, COSMO-IT (Elena Oberto, Massimo Milelli - ARPA Piemonte) • QPF verification of the 4 model versions at 7 km res. (COSMO-I7, COSMO-7, COSMO-EU, COSMO-ME) with the 2 model versions at 2 km res. (COSMO-I2, COSMO-IT) • Specifications: • Dataset: high resolution network of rain gauges coming from COSMO dataset and Civil Protection Department  1300 stations • Method: 24h/6h averaged cumulated precipitation value over 90 meteo-hydrological basins • The aims: • Long period verification (seasonal trend) • Verification ovest last year (200706-200806)

  2. Seasonal trends BIAS th 0.2mm/24h

  3. Seasonal trends BIAS th 20mm/24h

  4. Seasonal trends ETS th 0.2mm/24h

  5. Seasonal trends ETS th 20mm/24h

  6. Seasonal trends POD th 0.2 mm/24h

  7. Seasonal trends POD th 20 mm/24h

  8. Seasonal trends FAR th 0.2 mm/24h

  9. Seasonal trends FAR th 20 mm/24h

  10. Verification over last year (200706-200806) COSMO-7/COSMO-EU • Not so strong differences • COSMO-7 sligtly better on average

  11. Verification over last year (200706-200806) COSMO-7/COSMO-EU • Strong differences during the single season • COSMO-EU quite stable overestimation • COSMO-7 bias and pod decrease (far reduction)

  12. Verification over last year (200706-200806) COSMO-I7/COSMO-ME • Not so strong differences • COSMO-ME sligtly better on average

  13. Verification over last year (200706-200806) COSMO-I7/COSMO-ME • Strong differences during the single season • COSMO-ME quite stable overestimation • COSMO-I7 bias and pod decrease

  14. Verification over last year (200706-200806) COSMO-I7/COSMO-I2 • COSMO-I2 sligtly better on average

  15. Verification over last year (200706-200806) COSMO-I7/COSMO-I2 • COSMO-I2 trend seems to follow COSMO-I7 trend • COSMO-I2 worsening: strong positive bias last summer (deep convection on), negative bias this spring (deep convection off)

  16. Verification over last year (200706-200806) COSMO-ME/COSMO-IT • No significant differences

  17. Verification over last year (200706-200806) COSMO-ME/COSMO-IT • Generally the same trend • bias > 1 • Sligltly improvement for pod, ets,far

  18. Verification over last year (200706-200806) Diurnal cycle • Bias overestimation peak during midday • Best value peak for pod, ets, far during afternoon • Spin-up problem for all the models especially COSMO-I7 and COSMO-I2

  19. Verification over last year (200706-200806) Diurnal cycle • General worsening with forecast time • The spin-up seems to disappear except for COSMO-I2 • Anomalous behaviour for COSMO-I2 • COSMO-7 underestimates

  20. Summarizing… • Trend over long period: general slight improvement with the exception of COSMO-7 and COSMO-I7 for the last seasons • Intercomparison model verification over 200706-200806: • COSMO-EU and COSMO-ME quite stable overestimation • COSMO-7 bias and pod decrease • COSMO-I7 bias and pod decrease • COSMO-I2 worsening: strong bias >1 last summer (deep convection on), bias < 1 this spring (deep convection off) • Similar performance for COSMO-ME and COSMO-IT • 3. Diurnal cycle over 200706-200806: • Bias overestimation peak during midday • Best values of pod, ets, far during afternoon • Spin-up problem for low thresholds • General worsening with the forecast time • General overestimation with the exception of COSMO-7

  21. COSMO-7 COSMO-EU COSMO-I7 BIAS 200706-200806 00/24H COSMO-ME COSMO-IT COSMO-I2

  22. COSMO-7 COSMO-EU COSMO-I7 ETS 200706-200806 00/24H COSMO-ME COSMO-IT COSMO-I2

  23. Ticino/valtellina friuli toce veneto trentino garfagnana

  24. COSMO-7 COSMO-EU COSMO-I7 COSMO-ME COSMO-IT COSMO-I2

  25. COSMO-7 COSMO-EU COSMO-I7 COSMO-ME COSMO-IT COSMO-I2

More Related