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Property Catastrophe Models: Why are the Results So Different?

Explore the discrepancies in hurricane frequency, tracks, central pressure, and damage ratios in Florida, highlighting factors such as formation, fuel, windspeeds, and landfalling tendencies. Compare tropical and extra-tropical cyclones, historical storm catalogues, and microzoned wind fields for a comprehensive understanding.

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Property Catastrophe Models: Why are the Results So Different?

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  1. Property Catastrophe Models:Why are the Results So Different? CARe Seminar July 12, 2001

  2. Florida Frequency of Hurricanes

  3. Florida Hurricane Tracks

  4. Florida Central Pressure CDF

  5. Hurricane Andrew Windfield

  6. Hurricane Damage Ratios

  7. Formation Fuel Damaging winds Lifetime Typical Windspeeds Typical Forward-speeds Landfalling behaviour Frequency: Seasonality Frequency distribution Tracks Tropical Evaporating water 5-100 miles from eye Up to 10 days up to 140mph 10-40mph Always decay <10 / yr Summer (Jul-Oct) Poisson Independent Key differences between tropical cyclones and extra-tropical cyclones EXTRA-TROPICAL CYCLONES HURRICANES • Polar front • Temperature contrast • 50-400 miles from centre • Highest winds c. 24 hours • up to 100mph • 30-50mph • Can intensify • 150-200 / yr • Winter (Oct-April) • Not Poisson • Tend to “cluster”

  8. Historical Storm Catalogues RMS European Atlantic-Origin ETC Windstorm Catalogue Storm Nadirs (1869-1999)

  9. Track Information Storm Tracks 24th Dec 97 to 4th Jan 98 NADIRS ** JAN02G DEC24R DEC23K JAN03H

  10. Microzoned wind field for 15/16 October 1987 (87J)

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