Myanmar and Regional Stability: Issues and Problems

1. Myanmar and Regional Stability: Issues and Problems Tin Maung Maung Than ISEAS Singapore

2. Introduction • Myanmar has a population of 56 million • It is multi-racial (135 dialect groups) and multi-religious (Buddhist, Muslim, Hindu, Christian, Animist) • British rule (1885-1948); kingdoms’ partial annexation (wars: 1824, 1852) • Military rule (1962-1974, Sept 1988 --); One-party Socialist (1974-1988 Aug); Parliamentary Democracy (Jan 1948-Mar 1962) • Currently the State Peace & Develop-ment Council (SPDC) holds power

3. Myanmar & ASEAN • Myanmar (then Burma) declined to join ASEAN despite overtures by founding members • Apparent reasons: Cold War & foreign military bases; strict neutrality • Observer at 29th AMM, Jakarta, July 1996 • Formal member on 23 July 1997 • Signed ASEAN Charter at Singapore (13th) Summit in November 2007 • Ratified Charter in July 2008.

4. Contentious issues • Engagement vs Isolation • US & EU objections to admission • EU objections to Myanmar’s participation in ASEM and bloc ministerial meetings • Human rights and pace of political reforms; ASSK’s incarceration; alleged political repression and political prisoners; AIPS and APMC • ASCC: ASEAN Human Rights Body • ASC: Migrants, refugees, pandemics,nuclear transparency • AEC: AFTA provision, NTBs, economic nationalism

5. Domestic Imperatives • Regime security as national security; control & coercion • Generational change in military command • Economic & political liberalization: pace and direction • National unity and ethnic issues; ceasefire groups & insurgency; narcotics • Impact of Cyclone Nargis (2-3 May 2008) • Problems of building social capital, relative depravation • Opposition politics, dissidents (labour, students, monks) • Food insecurity; high inflation; overvalued (200 X) currency • Spectre of humanitarian crisis; chronic emergency?

6. Political Past • Elections held in May 1990; supervised by junta (SLORC) • 72.6% turnout, 93 parties competed • 6 independent s & 27 parties won seats • NLD won 81% of seats; 60% of votes • NUP won 2% of seats; 25% of votes • Only 10 parties left • Military did not contest election • NLD’s claim for power solely based on the election victory & interpretation of SLORC’s ambiguous promises

7. Constitution Making • National Convention tasked to formulate “detailed basic principles” of Constitution • Majority of delegates are from ethnic groups; political parties representatives are a minority • Began January 1993; Formulated 104 basic principles and recess from March 1996 – May 2004; Concluded in September 2007. • NLD walked out in November 1995. • Drafting Commission formed on 18 October 2007 • May Referendum & 2010 election target announced on 9 February 2008 • Draft Constitution announced 19 February 2008

8. Referendum • Opposition’s vote ‘No’ campaign constrained by law and Cyclone Nargis • Govt’s ‘Yes’ campaign employed multi-media, GONGOs & state resources • Held on 10 May 2008 for areas unaffected by Nargis • Held on 24 May in disaster zones • 27.4 million eligible voters • Overall turnout 98.12%; advance votes 17.3% • ‘Yes’ votes 92.48% (simple majority required to pass) • Draft Constitution accepted

9. Following the Road Map (August 2003) • Reconvening National Convention (NC) [done] • Implementation of the NC process [done] • Drafting Constitution with basic details approved through the NC [done] • Referendum on Constitution [done] • Free & fair elections [2010] • Convening the parliament [2010/11?] • State leaders elected by parliament to form government and other organs of state power [2010/11?]

10. Controversial features in the New State Constitution • The military’s complete autonomy to manage its own affairs; • Designation of the military Commander-in-Chief as supreme commander of all armed forces. • Reserved seats for the military in the form of C-in-C’s nominees amounting to 25 per cent of the seats in all national and regional parliaments; • Reserved positions for the nominees of the C-in-C as ministers and deputy ministers for defence, home affairs and border areas; • Requirement for the powerful executive President to have political, administrative, economic and military outlook, have 20 years continuous domicile, and be born of full citizen parents. Moreover, the President, the spouse, any of the children or his/her spouse must not be a subject or citizen of a foreign country or has sworn allegiance to a foreign country, or enjoy the same privileges and benefits bestowed by the foreign country to its subjects and citizens. • The President has the authority to appoint and dismiss ministers, deputy ministers of the national government as well as chief ministers of the (seven) states and (seven) division who are going to be heads of provincial governments; • Amendment of any of the major provisions in the constitution could only be made if it secures more than 75 per cent of the votes in the national parliament (a combined upper and lower house) together with more than 50 per cent votes of all eligible voters in a national referendum; • An “immunity” clause that protects the junta and all government personnel from being persecuted for any act carried out in the name of the state • For some ethnic communities "self-administered areas" within States and Regions, comprising one "self-administered division" (organized from contiguous districts constituting a large area inhabited by a majority ethnic group with a large population) and five "self-administered zones" (organized from contiguous townships inhabited by a majority ethnic community though smaller in area and population than a division) would be established. • The legislature • A two-parliament set-up with a five-years term. One is the Pyithu Hluttaw" (House of Representatives) which has 330 seats elected through population-based constituencies and the other is the "Amyotha Hluttaw" (House of Nationalities) with 168 seats consisting of 12 representatives from each state and region. Each self-administered division or zone within a particular state or region is entitled to have one representative amongst the 12 allowed. The combined session of both parliaments constitutes the "Pyidaungsu Hluttaw" (Union Parliament). There is a “hluttaw” (provincial parliament) for each state or region for which each township within that state or/region is entitled two seats. Moreover, each ethnic minority community residing within that state or region are also entitled one seat if its population is above 0.1 peer cent of the country’s population). At the level of self-administered areas the legislative body is in the form of “Oozee Aphwe” (Leading Body) with a minimum of ten members (comprising the representatives already elected to the state or region hluttaw from the corresponding townships, military representatives and representatives of other ethnic minorities with a population of more than 10,000; members for this last group are to be nominated by those from the first two groups). • One-quarter of the seats in the legislature at all three levels (from Oozee Aphwe up to Pyidaungsu Hluttaw) is reserved for military representatives nominated by the armed forces Commander-in-Chief (C-in-C). • The following persons are not be allowed to stand for election at all levels: prisoners, those barred for violating election laws, bankrupts, insane persons, members of Sangha (Buddhist monastic order), service personnel, those “owing allegiance” to or “subject of” a foreign government, foreigners, those “entitled to rights and privileges of a foreign government or” a foreign citizen, those who “obtain and make use of money, land, housing, building, vehicle, property, etc. directly or indirectly from a foreign government or religious organization or other organizations” or are “members of an organization” that enjoys the aforementioned benefits. • The executive and head of state. • There would be an executive presidency. The national government is to be appointed by the Union Pparliment and ministers need not be elected members of hluttaw. The chief minister of the government of a state or region must be a presidential appointee. For self-administered areas, there will be a chief executive who is an elected township representative. This person will also automatically become a member of the government for the corresponding state or region. • The president, whose parents must also be citizens, is the head of state as well as the highest executive. The president must have a minimum of 20 years continuous living in Myanmar. The president as well as the “parents, spouse, children and their spouses” must not “owe allegiance to . . . be a subject of foreign power or citizen of a foreign country . . . [and] not be . . . entitled to the right and privileges of a subject or citizen of a foreign country." The person must be "well acquainted with the affairs of State such as political administrative, economics and military affairs". • The electoral body for the presidential election comprises three groups selected from the Pyidaungsu Hluttaw. They are: equal numbers representing each region and state; representatives "elected on the basis of population"; and military representatives nominated to it by the C-in-C. Each group shall elect one vice-president who need not be an hluttaw member. The president will then be chosen from among these three nominees by the entire electoral body college after vetting by a body composed of leaders and deputy leaders of the two hluttaws. The unsuccessful candidates will become vice-presidents for the five-years term of office. • At the national level, the president can designate ministries and appoint/dismiss ministers, deputy ministers, attorney general, and auditor general who are not required to be hluttaw representatives. The president can prescribe the ministries and the number of ministers for region or state governments and also nominate the respective chief ministers (from amongst elected representatives of region/state hluttaws) who, in turn can select their own region/state ministers (who need not be elected representatives except for national race affairs). The president can assign region/state ministers to appropriate portfolios and chairmen of self-administered division/zone (nominated through the chief minister by the respective leading bodies) to their respective areas in coordination with the chief minister. All such actions must be confirmed by the respective hluttaws but the latter have no right to reject the president's nominee unless it can be proved that the person is disqualified under constitutional rules. However, minister and deputy-minister posts for defence, security or home affairs and border affairs are reserved for military personnel nominated by the armed forces C-in-C. Moreover, coordination with the armed forces C-in-C is required to appoint military personnel to any minister/deputy-minister post. • Judiciary. • A hierarchy of courts in the form of Pyidaungzu Tayaya Hluttaw (Supreme Court) at the Union level, State/Region Taya Hluttaw (High Court) and lower law courts to township level. Self-administered areas will also have their respective law courts. Open Independent and open administration of justice with the right of defence and appeal is to be instituted. • The military • The military enjoys complete autonomy for all military-related matters, with its C-in-C designated as the supreme commander. The C-in-C has the status of a vice-president. The appointment of the C-in-C is by the president on the basis of proposal and approval of the National Defence and Security Council. The C-in-C assigns the military officers to serve on leading bodies of self-administered areas. There would be a provision for the supreme commander to assume state power constitutionally in a national emergency, i.e., when force, disturbances and violence are used to usurp state power or there is a danger of disintegration of the union and national solidarity as well as the loss of national sovereignty.

11. Contd. • Exemption for military personal to remain in service while serving as ministers and deputy ministers; civilians have to resign from their positions as parliamentarians or civil servants or suspend their party affiliations. • Requirement for the President to declare a national emergency and hand over executive, legislative and judicial powers to the C-in-C in situations in which there are attempts to usurp state power through insurgency, violence and unlawful means leading to the disintegration of the union and national solidarity or the loss of national sovereignty or there is sufficient reason to believe that such a situation is imminent;

12. Contd. • Executive President must have political, administrative, economic and military outlook, have 20 years continuous domicile, and be born of full citizen parents. Moreover, the President, the spouse, any of the children or his/her spouse must not be a subject or citizen of a foreign country or has sworn allegiance to a foreign country, or enjoy the same privileges and benefits bestowed by the foreign country to its subjects and citizens. • The President has the authority to appoint and dismiss ministers, deputy ministers of the national government as well as chief ministers of the (seven) states and (seven) division who are going to be heads of provincial governments;

13. Contd. • Amendment of any of the major provisions in the constitution could only be made if it secures more than 75 per cent of the votes in the national parliament (a combined upper and lower house) together with more than 50 per cent votes of all eligible voters in a national referendum; • An “immunity” clause that protects the junta and all government personnel from being persecuted for any act carried out in the name of the state

14. Contrasting Visions of Democracy for Myanmar • SPDC: discipline flourishing genuine multiparty democracy under a unitary state structure with quasi-regional autonomy, • NLD, expatriates, democracy lobbies, Western democracies: liberal democracy under a federal state structure

15. Government Actions • Heavy security presence on dates of anniversaries • Pre-emptive detention and travel restrictions (monks & laypersons) • Criminal prosecution of prominent dissident figures using existing laws e.g., unlawful association; treason; public disorder; printing, publishing, video and electronics acts; computer law; safeguarding the state; obstruction of authorities in the line of duty; foreign currency act; unauthorized visiting act, etc. • Ministerial tours to garner support ; providing economic & other incentives • Engaging ceasefire groups: carrots & sticks

16. Opposition Reactions • Oppose the Constitution and the elections through declarations, demands, symbolic gestures, appeals to the international community and perhaps a call for a boycott of the elections • Radical element believe to use violence (bombing) • Try to bring attention of the ICC, UNSC, and UNCHR and impose further sanctions • Armed rebels continue harassing the military

17. Whither Myanmar: A Stable or Unstable Transition? VARIABLES • Ceasefire groups DDR • Economy (relative deprivation); Trade & Aid • Post-Nargis recovery • Regional states’ engagement & support • US & EU actions