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SFDC’s First Annual Business Resource Summit

SFDC’s First Annual Business Resource Summit. The Shape of the Economic Recovery. Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis School of Public Policy, George Mason University. November 17, 2009.

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SFDC’s First Annual Business Resource Summit

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  1. SFDC’s First Annual BusinessResource Summit The Shape of the Economic Recovery Stephen S. Fuller, PhDDwight Schar Faculty Chair and University ProfessorDirector, Center for Regional AnalysisSchool of Public Policy, George Mason University November 17, 2009

  2. U.S. Gross Domestic ProductQuarterly Change: 2006 – 2011 Forecast > > > > > > > > % 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Global Insight

  3. ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices Non-Mfg Mfg

  4. Annual Change in Payroll Jobs - US THOUSANDS Oct 09 = - 5.5 Mil Source: BLS Establishment Survey

  5. US Job Change Month-to-Month, Seasonally Adjusted 000s Oct Source: BLS

  6. Initial Unemployment Claims 000s (4-week moving average)

  7. U.S. Unemployment Rate % Oct = 10.2 % Source: BLS, Seasonally Adjusted

  8. Housing Trends:New & Existing Home Sales (000s) (000s) Existing (left scale) New (Right Scale)

  9. Interest Rates 2001 - 2014 Forecast > > > > > >

  10. Consumer Confidence Present Situation 100 Expectations Source: Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  11. U.S. Leading Index 2006 2007 2008 2009

  12. The Washington Economy

  13. GDP/GRP 2000 - 2014 % Washington U.S. Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  14. Annual Change in Jobs Washington Metro Area 1991 - 2008 Thousands Avg. = 45,000 Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  15. 15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change Sep 08 – Sep 09 (000s) Washington – 37,000 Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  16. Annual Job ChangeWashington MSA 000s Annual DataAnnual Month over Year 2008 2009 Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  17. Job Change by SectorSep 2008 – Sep 2009Washington MSA Total - 37,000 (000s) Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  18. Unemployment Rate % 9.5 6.2 U.S. Washington Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted

  19. 15 Largest Job MarketsRanked by Unemployment RateSeptember 2009 % US 9.5 6.2 Source: BLS, NOT Seasonally Adjusted

  20. Total Active Listings Per SaleOctober Each Year LDN FFX DC ARL MONT PW

  21. Average Sales Price Percent ChangeNorthern VirginiaAll Housing Types % Annual Change Annual Change by Month 2007 2008 2009 Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  22. Economic Forecast

  23. Employment Change bySub-state Region (000s) Average Annual Change 1990-2008 = 45,000 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  24. Economic Outlook (GRP) – 2014Washington Area and Sub-state Portions(Annual % Change) % NV MSA SM DC Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  25. www.cra-gmu.org Cardinal Bank & George Mason University 18th Annual Economic Conference Friday, January 15, 2010

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