Mainstreaming Statistics in Africa: A Summary of IMF Activities

1. Mainstreaming Statistics in Africa: A Summary of IMF Activities William E. Alexander Addis Ababa, Ethiopia February 9–10, 2006

2. Issues to be covered: • A summary of IMF’s technical assistance program in statistics in Africa. • A background of IMF’s statistical activities in Africa. • Mainstreaming statistics in IMF work via integrating the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS) plans for improvement into the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP).

3. TA Field Delivery to AFR by Source of Funding, FY 2003–FY 2006(in person-years)

4. TA Field Delivery to AFR by Source of Funding, FY 2003–FY 2006(in percent)

5. TA Field Delivery to AFR by Topic, FY 2003–FY 2006

6. Background of IMF Statistical Activities in Africa • The IMF provides member countries with (a) policy advice; (b) financial assistance through programs; and (c) technical assistance (TA) in statistics and other areas. • TA in statistics to Africa is provided via (a) missions from headquarters; (b) GDDS projects; and (c) two AFRITACS located in Tanzania and Mali. • TA in Africa is provided in collaboration with the United Nations, the World Bank, the African Development Bank, PARIS21, African regional organizations, and bilateral donors, mainly Japan and the United Kingdom.

7. Background of IMF Statistical Activities in Africa (continued) • The IMF also collaborates with many international organizations, mainly within the framework of the Monterrey Consensus and the Marrakech Action Plan for Statistics, to support statistical developments in Africa and the rest of the world.

8. Mainstreaming the GDDS into the PRSP The GDDS • The GDDS provides a comprehensive framework for developing statistics in low-income countries (LICs). • The framework covers macroeconomic and socio-demographic metadata. • It includes also a separate plan for improvement. • To date, 81 countries participate in the GDDS, of which 40 are in Africa.

9. Mainstreaming the GDDS into the PRSP (continued) The PRSP • The PRSP process mirrors the GDDS process. • It emphasizes country ownership. • It entails a participatory process. • It covers macroeconomic and social (socio-demographic) components, which are supported mainly by the Fund and the World Bank, respectively. • Forty-five countries have prepared full or interim PRSPs, of which 31 are in Africa.

10. Similar but separate processes • Although both the GDDS and PRSP support capacity-building in LICs, they have been implemented separately. • About 78 percent of donors rely on the PRSP to program their aid* and developing countries use the PRSP to prioritize budgetary expenditures. • Hitherto, the GDDS has been implemented largely outside of the budget framework. —————— * Development Assistance Committee Survey results, December 2004.

11. Lead to unacceptable outcomes • Consequently, the GDDS reforms (which are not incorporated in the PRSP) are often not adequately funded either by donors or from local resources. • The PRSP, which lacks a comprehensive statistical framework (comparable to the GDDS), ends up with an inadequate statistical coverage for monitoring purposes.

12. A case for some integration of the GDDS and the PRSP • Some integration of the GDDS and PRSP processes is essential to address the weakness inherent in each framework. • The GDDS provides an essential developmental statistical framework, while the PRSP provides the national policy strategic framework that would enhance priority and a solid basis for funding for statistical reforms.

13. Pilot Case--Sierra Leone The Sierra Leone PRSP • Sierra Leone has collaborated with IMF staff to include in the PRSP: • A separate section covering all the statistical issues related to the GDDS and the PRSP itself. • The section has three components: (a) diagnostic; (b) strategic development; and (c) a costed reform action plan that is incorporate in the medium-term expenditure framework. • In reviewing this experience in November 2005, the IMF Executive Board supported the integration of the GDDS in the PRSP to fund statistical reforms explicitly.

14. Implications • Mainstreaming the strategic statistical issues into the PRSP is an essential step in making the document an evidence-based performance framework. • Consistent with the Monterrey Consensus and the Marrakech Action Plan for Statistics, mainstreaming statistics in the PRSP enhances the capacity to monitor and evaluate targets, including the MDGs.

15. Implications (continued) • Incorporating all the statistical issues and the associated reform action plan facilitates the costing of these reforms, an essential step for including their funding in the annual budget, medium-term expenditure, and macroeconomic frameworks of the PRSP. • The international finance institutions (IFIs) and donors can then use the PRSP framework more effectively to design and implement their technical assistance programs to strengthen statistical capacity in developing countries.

16. Extension of the Model More pilot cases • Expansion of pilot cases would result in more examples of best practices, reflecting varied country experiences. Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ghana, Senegal, and Tanzania have agreed to participate. • Would permit broader incorporation of technical assistance recommendations, e.g., those provided in the data Report on Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC) in the PRSP plans for improvement. • The expanded PRSP plans for improvement could be used also to help monitor the work programs of the regional technical assistance centers like East and West AFRITAC. • The DFID GDDS project could support this approach during the period 2006–09.

17. Links to the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) • Linking the GDDS, ROSC, and the PRSP should facilitate a more comprehensive coverage and better funding for statistics reforms. • In turn, this could lead to accelerated statistical development and likely accelerate graduation from the GDDS to the SDDS. • The DFID GDDS project could target this graduation during 2006–09, as an indicator of the effectiveness of TA.

18. Links to the National Strategy for Developing Statistics (NSDS) • With 81 participating countries, the GDDS provides a good basis for developing the NSDS. • The GDDS is, in fact, at the core of the NSDS. Countries can gradually build on and expand the GDDS to incorporate broader issues like the infrastructure for statistics, training, and fostering the demand for statistics, which are main features of the NSDS.

19. PRSP • Poverty Profile • Macroeconomic framework • -Real sector • Fiscal sector • Monetary sector • Balance of payments • Socio-Demographic sectors • -Education data • Health data • Agricultural data • Gender equality • HIV/AIDS • Monitoring • -Objectives and targets • Census and surveys • Other data needs • Plans for improvement IMF: PRGF Structural reforms --------------------------- Budget line - Social Sectors - Statistical Reforms? IBRD: PRSC Social and poverty reduction targets, including MDGs. DQAF/ROSCs Prerequisites for and five dimensions of data quality --------------------------- Staff recommendations TA needs NSDS GDDS Macroeconomic data profile and action plan --------------------------- Socio-demographic data profile and action plan Links between the GDDS, the DQAF/ROSC, the PRSP, the PRGF, and the NSDS