Working Group on Marine biophysical interactions and the dynamics of upwelling systems

1. IMBER/CLIVAR Working Group onMarine biophysical interactions and the dynamics of upwelling systems Ken Drinkwater, Juergen Alheit, Antonio Bode, Peter Brandt, David Checkley, GokhanDanabasoglu, Veronique Garcon, Eileen Hofmann, Raleigh Hood, Jim Hurrell, Salvador Lluch-Cota, ShoshiroMinobe, Mathieu Rouault, Andreas Schmittner

2. Marine Biophysical Interactions • Eastern boundary upwelling systems with 7% of primary production, 20% of total global marine fish catches and only 2% of total area Annual meannetprimaryproduction (NPP) in gC m−2 yr−1 Lachkar and Gruber, 2012

3. Ecosystem Impact: Functional Diversity, Regime Shift and Fishermen Vulnerability overfishing Redraw from Stramma et al., 2010

4. Deoxygenation in Low-Oxygen Regions of Tropical Oceans Changes of dissolved oxygen between1960–1974 and 1990-2008 Stramma et al., 2010 What is the role of upwelling on the oxygen levels in such zones? How do changing oxygen levels affect biogeochemistry and ecosystem?

5. Rising Ocean Temperatures with Regional Differences Tropical Southeast Atlantic: Most pronounced and robust warming trend over the 20th century among all the tropical oceans Adopted from Deseret al., 2010 Large uncertainties of associated impacts exist in the model-based analyses due to severe model biases

6. Upwelling Regions Poorly Represented in GCMs Summer (JJA) Sea Surface temperature bias pattern for CMIP5 White stipples indicate where models are consistently wrong Toniazzo and Woolnough, 2013 Persistent model error from CMIP3 to CMIP5, with little sign of reduction

7. Major Science Questions • What is the spatio-temporal structure of upwellings, and what is their role in shaping mean biases in coupled climate models? • What are the respective influence of local conditions and large-scale climate modes (ENSO, PDO, NAO, AMO/AMV, etc.) in controlling interannual and decadal variability in upwellings? • What is the expected physical response in the upwelling areas under climate change? • What is the role of upwelling in oceanic nutrient distribution, oxygen minimum zones and biogeochemical cycles? • How do upwelling variability and changes affect ecosystem and fisheries? • How do climate and fisheries affect the ecological dynamics of upwelling ecosystems, including exploited species such as small pelagic fish? Can better understanding be achieved to inform management and policy?

8. EU Framework 7 cooperative project(2013-2017) • 27 partners from 17 countries • 17 from 8 European countries • 10 from 9 African countries • Coordinator: Noel Keenlyside • Associated projects/initiatives • AWA (PI P. Brehmer) • SACUS-SPACE (PI P. Brandt) • US NSF (PI P. Chang) PREFACE: Enhancing PREdictionoF Tropical Atlantic ClimatE & its impact Forced ocean models CT3 Climate modelling CT2 Ocean process Ocean & ecosysyem data Climate/Prediction models CT1Management & Dissemination CT5 Marine-Ecosystems Impacts CT4 Climate prediction Impact prediction Continuation of CLIVAR TACE program (2006-2011) with more emphasis on coastal upwelling regions

9. Tropical Atlantic Observing SystemGulf of Guinea and Eastern Boundary Upwelling regions Enhanced observations in the eastern boundary upwelling systems Stronger involvement of African countries (cooperation and capacity building) required

10. IMBER/CLIVAR Working Group onMarine biophysical interactions and the dynamics of upwelling systems Goal is to improve cooperation between climatologists, physical and biogeochemical oceanographers, ecologists, and fisheries scientists Next steps: Proposals for a SCOR Working Group on Upwelling Under Future Climate Change and for Fast Track Initiative under Future Earth Suggestions welcome. OPEN TO ALL!

11. IMBER/CLIVAR Working Group onMarine biophysical interactions and the dynamics of upwelling systems Thankyou for yourattention NPP, NASA