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Targeting and impact of measures to improve employability

Targeting and impact of measures to improve employability. Anna Adamecz Ágota Scha rle. Budapest Institute for Policy Analysis. www.ujszechenyiterv.gov.hu | Budapest, 30 April 2013. Outline. Selecting programmes for the study Data sources Access and targeting

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Targeting and impact of measures to improve employability

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  1. Targeting and impact of measures to improve employability Anna Adamecz Ágota Scharle Budapest Institute for Policy Analysis www.ujszechenyiterv.gov.hu | Budapest, 30 April 2013

  2. Outline • Selecting programmes for the study • Data sources • Access and targeting • Raw reemployment rates • Impact analysis • Lessons • Recommendations www.ujszechenyiterv.gov.hu | Budapest, 30 April 2013

  3. Selecting programmes • HU vs EU15 employment gap: largely due to low emp of uneducated • most long term unemployed are uneducated • NLO admin data are accessible • 5 programmes targeting the uneducated, administered by NLO, between 2007 and 2010 • covering 56 % of total expenditure in SROP www.ujszechenyiterv.gov.hu | Budapest, 30 April 2013

  4. Design of selected programmes • complex: mentoring, training, wage subsidy • srop 111 – disabled jobseekerssrop 112 – primary ed, long term unemployedsrop 113 – long term unemployed (SA) • targeted wage subsidy • srop 121 – long term unemployed (low ed/older) • training and adult education • srop 211 – jobseekers with primary education www.ujszechenyiterv.gov.hu | Budapest, 30 April 2013

  5. Data sources • Official progress reports • NLO unemployment register (individuals) • stock of 20 Jan 2009 • inflow bween 20 Jan 2009 – 20 Jan 2010 • NLO program participants (individuals) • entering before 31 Dec 2010 • Tax registry data on start of work contract • for control and treated, until Oct 2012 www.ujszechenyiterv.gov.hu | Budapest, 30 April 2013

  6. Access and targeting www.ujszechenyiterv.gov.hu | Budapest, 30 April 2013

  7. Share of uneducated (%) www.ujszechenyiterv.gov.hu | Budapest, 30 April 2013

  8. Raw reemployment indicators • Official progress reports (OPR) • during/straight after program or on day 180 • excludes public works • only those completing the programme • NLO • within 180 days or any time until Oct 2012 • or did not reregister within 180 days • includes public works • all those entering the programme www.ujszechenyiterv.gov.hu | Budapest, 30 April 2013

  9. Raw reemployment rates % www.ujszechenyiterv.gov.hu | Budapest, 30 April 2013

  10. Impact of programme participation on probability of reemployment Compare observed outcome to „What if?” Compare to counterfactual Select control group by matching (propensity score) Control group with same observed characteristics(age, sex, education, employment history, location) Impact analysis: the method www.ujszechenyiterv.gov.hu | Budapest, 30 April 2013

  11. Impact of SROP 113 (men) www.ujszechenyiterv.gov.hu | Budapest, 30 April 2013

  12. Reemployment rate much higher for participants srop 1.1.1: higher by 53-51 %points srop 1.1.3: higher by 57-50 %points Upper bound: large, positive w upward bias Much larger than international evidence Possible selection bias in unobserved characteristics (e.g. motivation, ethnicity) No data on unregistered employment Includes deadweight loss and substitution effects Impact of SROP 1.1.1. and 1.1.3. www.ujszechenyiterv.gov.hu | Budapest, 30 April 2013

  13. Impact of short w.subsidy fades out www.ujszechenyiterv.gov.hu | Budapest, 30 April 2013

  14. SROP1.1.1. w/wout wage subsidy

  15. SROP1.1.1. for long term unemp

  16. Lessons • limited resources for programmes for the uneducated • reemployment rates are high and increase in time • participants are better educated (except srop211) • srop 111 and 113: large positive impact • training and mentoring improves reemployment even without wage subsidy • impact of short term wage subsidy fades out fast • srop 111: significant impact for long term unemployed • mentoring has stronger impact on women • NLO register suitable for monitoring www.ujszechenyiterv.gov.hu | Budapest, 30 April 2013

  17. Recommendations • increase funding for training and mentoring for uneducated jobseekers • adjust programme design based on impacts • improve targeting: target group, sub-indicators, profiling • unify indicators across programmes • add indicators on long term (1-2 years) impact • accompany new programmes with detailed longitudinal survey of participants and control www.ujszechenyiterv.gov.hu | Budapest, 30 April 2013

  18. Thank you for your attention

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