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Background: Agricultural Projections

Background: Agricultural Projections. The North West covers an area of 116 320 km 2 , representing 9,5% of the total surface area of South Africa. Only three provinces (KwaZulu-Natal, Mpumalanga and Gauteng) cover a smaller area.

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Background: Agricultural Projections

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  1. Background: Agricultural Projections • The North West covers an area of 116 320 km 2 , representing 9,5% of the total surface area of South Africa. Only three provinces (KwaZulu-Natal, Mpumalanga and Gauteng) cover a smaller area. • The North-West is also one of the most important food baskets of South Africa. • The Bushveld areas are almost subtropical, while the western area is semi-desert. Maize, sunflower and groundnuts are the biggest crops.

  2. Background: Agricultural projections • Some of the largest cattle herds in the world are found near Vryburg, while Marico is also cattle country. The areas around Rustenburg and Brits are fertile mixed-crop farming land. Crops include tobacco, citrus, paprika, wheat, peppers, cotton and sunflowers. • AIDS will have adverse effects on agriculture, including loss of labour supply and remittance income. The loss of a few workers at the crucial periods of planting and harvesting can significantly reduce the size of harvests.

  3. Background: Agricultural Projections • Loss of agricultural labour is likely to cause farmers to switch to less labour-intensive crops. • AIDS could affect the production of cash crops and, as a result, affect foreign exchange earnings. Production may also suffer as the timing of general agricultural tasks is disrupted as workers fall ill and as others need to take time off to care for them.

  4. Background: Agricultural Projections Table showing HIV population estimates in 2001 Source: Statistics SA

  5. Results: Agricultural Projections • Population projections included the following variables: education and income categories. • An estimated 326 756 (9,4%) of the total population, in the North West (3 354 825) were in the agricultural sector in 1996. The latter figure includes all age groups, while an estimated 98 349 of the economically active population are farm-workers (2,9%).

  6. Results: Agricultural Projections

  7. Results: Agricultural Projections

  8. Results: Agricultural Projections

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  10. Results: Agricultural Projections

  11. Conclusion: Agricultural projections • The main impacts could be summarised into: - A decline in the population growth, especially among the economically active age groups and a decline in life expectancy from 63.27 in 2006 to 2011 to 50.27 in 2006-2011. - Loss of skilled labour in the agricultural sector. Variances are expected among the different areas, therefore specific programs would need to be introduced to replace the losses in those areas that would be influenced the most.

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