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Improvement of Short-term Severe Weather Forecasting Using high-resolution MODIS Satellite Data

Study of MODIS Retrieved Total Precipitable Water (TPW) Data and their Impact on Severe Weather Simulations. Improvement of Short-term Severe Weather Forecasting Using high-resolution MODIS Satellite Data. S.-H. Chen 1 , A. Chen 1 , J. Haase 2 , Z. Zhao 1 , and F. Vandenberghe 3.

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Improvement of Short-term Severe Weather Forecasting Using high-resolution MODIS Satellite Data

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  1. Study of MODIS Retrieved Total Precipitable Water (TPW) Data and their Impact on Severe Weather Simulations Improvement of Short-term Severe Weather Forecasting Using high-resolution MODIS Satellite Data S.-H. Chen1, A. Chen1, J. Haase2, Z. Zhao1, and F. Vandenberghe3 1 Department of Land, Air, and Water Resources, University of California, Davis, CA 2 Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Purdue University, W. Lafayette, IN 3 National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO

  2. Outline • Introduction • Observations • Experiments and Preliminary Results • Summary

  3. Introduction MODIS Data • Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer • Aboard Terra (2000) and Aqua (2002) • 36 spectral bands: 0.405-14.387 μm • Resolutions: 250m, 500m, 1000m • Sun-synchronous polar orbit • Mean altitude : 705 km (equator) • Width of swath : 2300 km (Terra), 2330 m (Aqua)

  4. Introduction RetrievedMODIS Total Precipitalbe Water (TPW) Images MODIS near InfraRed (nIR) TPW (cm). This image shows an 85% retrieval rate. MODIS InfraRed (IR) TPW (cm). This image shows a 50% retrieval rate.

  5. Observations MODIS swath & Radiosonde Stations 00Z 01/04/04

  6. Observations MODIS nIR TPW vs. Radiosonde TPW Before Correction After Correction RMS ~ 4 mm RMS ~ 2.5 mm

  7. MODIS – Radiosonde vs. Latitude nIR IR

  8. Radiosonde Stations

  9. experiments Hail and Strong Wind reports (June 1 and 2 2004) Severe thunderstorm activity on June 1 and 2, 2004 in Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas and Louisiana. (Curtsey Storm Prediction Center NOAA)

  10. experiments Model Configuration (Initial Time: 1800 UTC 1 June 2004) Weather Research and Forecast Model 18 UTC 1 June – 00 UTC 3 June 2004 Global Reanalysis: AVN 1o x 1o Domain 1 - 30 km 2 - 10 km Physic: Purdue microphysics New Kain-Fritsch RRTM long wave Dudhia short wave YSU PBL

  11. experiments Hurricane Isidore (1800 UTC 17 – 0000 UTC 20 Sep 2002)

  12. experiments Model Configuration (Initial Time: 1800 UTC 17 Sep 2002) Weather Research and Forecast Model 18 UTC Sep 17 – 00 UTC Sep 20, 2002 Global Reanalysis: AVN 1o x 1o Domain 1 - 30 km 2 - 10 km 3 - 3.3 km Physic: Purdue microphysics New Kain-Fritsch RRTM long wave Dudhia short wave YSU PBL

  13. Before Correction After Correction RMS ~ 4 mm RMS ~ 2.5 mm Experiments

  14. Isidore Rainfall (0 - 6h simulation) Observation CNTL MODC MOD

  15. Isidore Rainfall (6 - 12h simulation) Observation CNTL MODC MOD

  16. Isidore Rainfall (12 – 18h simulation) Observation CNTL MODC MOD

  17. Isidore TPW Increment and 850 mb Wind IMOD IMODC

  18. Maximum CAPE IMOD IMODC ICNTL

  19. Results - Isidore Maximum 10-m Wind Speed Minimum Sea Level Pressure

  20. Radar Reflectivity - Isidore (2100 UTC 19 Sep 2002) Radar Image (HRD,NOAA) ICNTL IMOD IMODC

  21. 2-km Vertical Velocity (24h) IMOD ICNTL

  22. 2-km Vertical Velocity (48h) IMOD ICNTL

  23. Summary • The retrieved MODIS TPW might have biases and the RMS error • is about 2-4 mm, which is comparable with that from global • reanalysis over land. • Preliminary results show that the assimilation of MODIS • TPW has slightly positive impact on sever weather simulations • (rainfall, storm intensity, etc.). • The assimilation of MODIS TPW may not be able to improve • “now (i.e., at data assimilation time)” nowcasting but may • have a potential to improve “future (e.g., 12h later)” • nowcasting!

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