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Analysis of IHOP Convection Initiation Cases and Surface Analysis: June 10th and 19th, 2002

This analysis examines the evolution of convection initiation cases during the International H2O Project (IHOP). It includes surface analysis, data collection, and the factors contributing to the initiation or lack thereof of deep convection.

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Analysis of IHOP Convection Initiation Cases and Surface Analysis: June 10th and 19th, 2002

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  1. Analyses of the 10 June and 19 June 2002 IHOP Convection Initiation Cases(with a minor plug for BLE!) Yvette P. Richardson Nettie R. Arnott James N. Marquis Brian Monahan June 14, 2004 IHOP Scientific Workshop

  2. Surface Analysis 1900 UTC

  3. Overall Evolution

  4. 10 June 2002 IOR Data Collection: 1918 UTC – 2118 UTC CI: 2103 UTC

  5. Sounding in IOR 2044 UTC Weak capping inversion Dry air above boundary layer LCL 3 km AGL Top of domain

  6. Sounding near CI 1935 UTC LCL 3 km AGL

  7. High Temporal Resolution Loop

  8. King Air W vs. Radar W King Air track = black line Warm colors = +w Cold colors = -w 740 m AGL Correlation = 0.78 1230 m AGL Correlation = 0.83 A A’ A A’

  9. 23.0km 100 m AGL Warm colors = convergence Cold colors = Divergence Contoured every 2 x 10 –3 s-1 (0 contour not shown) 23. 5 km

  10. 23.0km 100 m AGL Warm colors = convergence Cold colors = Divergence Contoured every 2 x 10 –3 s-1 (0 contour not shown) 23. 5 km

  11. 23.0km 100 m AGL Warm colors = convergence Cold colors = Divergence Contoured every 2 x 10 –3 s-1 (0 contour not shown) 23. 5 km

  12. 23.0km 100 m AGL Warm colors = convergence Cold colors = Divergence Contoured every 2 x 10 –3 s-1 (0 contour not shown) 23. 5 km

  13. Parcel trajectory movies Parcels reach 100 m AGL at 1953 UTC Parcels reach 100 m AGL at 2017 UTC Box =IOR Height = 1.4 km View Point: Ahead of the cold front looking towards the North West

  14. 1955 UTC 1946 UTC

  15. 2007 UTC 2010 UTC

  16. IOR convergence beings weakening 2020 UTC

  17. IOR convergence beings weakening 2025 UTC

  18. IOR convergence beings weakening 2034 UTC

  19. IOR convergence beings weakening 2039 UTC

  20. IOR convergence beings weakening 2045 UTC 2037 UTC

  21. IOR convergence beings weakening 2055 UTC

  22. 2056 UTC

  23. 2143 UTC

  24. Why was there no initiation of deep convection within the IOR?

  25. Potential Temperature at 600 m AGL Behind cold front Ahead of cold front P3 Track 1956 UTC 1939 UTC 2018 UTC 2035 UTC

  26. Mobile Mesonet Warming

  27. Convection did not initiate in IOR because… • Weakening temperature gradient across cold front led to weaker frontal circulation • Dry air aloft made growth difficult to sustain 2007 UTC 2056 UTC Weakening convergence

  28. Enhanced convergence? Cold front did not dissipate? Boundary – cold front intersection? Hints of this in satellite and radar data Did wave pattern along front have any influence? Why did convection initiate so close by?

  29. Future Work • ELDORA data near CI (with Kingsmill) • Photogrammetry to map clouds • Submit paper for Special Issue • Data assimilation / Numerical modeling • Fill in data gaps • Influence of nearby developing convection • Influence of warming and convective instability

  30. June 19 CI Case • Dryline near Colby, KS

  31. DOW2 DOW2 XPOL IOR #1 IOR #2 XPOL DOW3

  32. DOW2 DOW2 XPOL DOW3

  33. Deployment #2 – 21:20+ UTC 25 14 13.5

  34. Deployment B Loop 1 • Deployment B Loop 2

  35. Z=400m Vorticity in Color White contours of w wmax Strong misocyclones – separated from w by approximately ¼ wavelength

  36. Z=400m Vorticity in Color White contours of w Misocyclones similar intensity to previous time Updraft filling in along line

  37. Initiation of Deep Convection Cells apparent at 21:23 in DOW3 scans Initiation captured by XPOL but occurs ‘behind’ DOW3 while DOW2 is in motion Unclear if origin can be traced to features within the IOR Aircraft may be needed to fill in the gaps DZ DOW3 21:23

  38. Later Initiation • Deployment 2 Loop 3

  39. Misocyclone Loop w/raw radar data

  40. 6 pm CDT Landspout 4pm CDT Dustdevil

  41. Future Work • Combine wind analyses with water vapor measurements (lidar, mobile mesonets, dropsondes, satellite, MIPS, mobile radiometer, etc.) • Perform trajectory calculations to look at initiation and misocyclone formation/evolution • Cloud Photogrammetry Analysis (with Erik Rasmussen) • Submit Paper for Special Issue

  42. Boundary Layer Evolution(14 June 2002) • Fine Resolution Radar Loop from 1300-1900 UTC

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