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Structure and Performance Trends in Irish Agriculture 1973-2003

This paper examines the performance and structural changes in Irish agriculture over the 30 years since EU membership, in light of the immediate challenges to the future of farming. It discusses the declining role of farming, trends in output and input use, changes in livestock numbers, declining terms of trade, and the impact of direct payments on income stability. The paper also explores the need for viable alternative enterprises to maintain rural areas.

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Structure and Performance Trends in Irish Agriculture 1973-2003

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  1. Structure and Performance Trends in Irish Agriculture 1973-2003 Alan Matthews Trinity College Dublin

  2. Task of the paper • In the light of the immediate challenges to the future of farming… • … to examine performance and structural change in Irish agriculture in the 30 years since EU membership • Part of the ‘context and rationale for the development of alternative farm enterprises’

  3. Declining role of farming

  4. Fewer numbers at work in farming..

  5. More multiple job-holding

  6. Trend in gross agricultural output

  7. Trends in input use

  8. Ratio of input costs to output

  9. The cattle breeding herd

  10. Growth in milk yields

  11. Growth in sheep and pig numbers

  12. Declining terms of trade

  13. Aggregate farming income

  14. Number and average size of farms

  15. Increase in minimum viable size

  16. Increased scale in dairying

  17. Sweeping change in the pig sector

  18. Widespread distribution of suckler cows

  19. Land market has collapsed

  20. What can we say about growth? • Growth momentum appears to be exhausted • …not because of the exhaustion of productivity growth… • …but because of constraints on increasing output… • …the change in policy priorities to give more emphasis to environmental values… • …and reducing economic incentives

  21. What can we say about income? • Stability in the aggregate income from farming has been supported by increased direct payments • …but no budget to pay further compensation in the unreformed sectors.. • … and inflation is eating away at the real value of existing payments.. • …off-farm income will continue to increase in importance in farm households

  22. What can we say about structures? • Rapid structural change at the enterprise level.. • .. and increasing minimum viable farm size.. • .. contrast with the unchanging pace of decline in farm numbers and employment regardless of economic conditions.. • .. and the constipated state of the land market

  23. What can we say about structures? • Support to drystock enterprises is encouraging farmers to hold on to land because of the subsidies this attracts while most of the income is coming from off the farm.. • ..but drystock is now totally uncompetitive at market prices.. • Would funds be better directed at creating viable alternative enterprises to maintain rural areas?

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