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Probabilistic tools in OpenEarth

Probabilistic tools in OpenEarth. Example with Van der Meer formula. Kees den Heijer, TU Delft & Deltares. Overview. Probabilistic calculation Stochastic variables Limit state function (Z-function) Reliability method (FORM, Monte Carlo) Relevant Matlab tools

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Probabilistic tools in OpenEarth

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  1. Probabilistic tools in OpenEarth Example with Van der Meer formula Kees den Heijer, TU Delft & Deltares

  2. Overview Probabilistic calculation Stochastic variables Limit state function (Z-function) Reliability method (FORM, Monte Carlo) Relevant Matlab tools OpenEarthTools CT4310 release as zip-file OpenEarthTools full version via subversion

  3. Stochast variable • Structure with fields: • Name • Unique name for each stochastic variable • Distr • Functionhandle of distribution function (e.g. @norm_inv) • Params • Parameters in cell-array as input for the corresponding distribution function • propertyName • Indicate how to parse variable to z-function

  4. Stochast variable Names are custom Distribution should be matlab functionhandle Params are second and further input arguments of the distribution function Distr Params

  5. Available distribution functions

  6. Limit state function • This should be created as separate function • Input arguments: • samples : specified as propertyName-propertyValue pairs • Output argument: • z : z-values corresponding to the x-values

  7. Limit state function Calculate Z

  8. Run calculation • General • Specify stochast variable with: ‘stochast’, stochast_variable • Specify z-function with: ‘x2zFunction’, @your_custom_zfunction • Monte Carlo • Specify number of samples with: ‘NrSamples’, 1e4 • Additional settings: • Next arguments are optional combinations of keywords and corresponding values (propertyName-propertyValue pairs)

  9. Run calculation

  10. Monte Carlo defaults

  11. FORM defaults

  12. Preparation • Release with relevant tools available via Blackboard • Download and unzip the file CT4310_release.zip • Start Matlab • Activate tools by running: \CT4310_release\oetsettings.m

  13. Example calculation • Example calculation with Van der Meer formula available under:

  14. FAQ • Only the Monte Carlo output is available, how do I get the FORM results? • Monte Carlo seems to work properly, but FORM gives an error.

  15. Only the Monte Carlo output is available, how do I get the FORM results? (1)

  16. Only the Monte Carlo output is available, how do I get the FORM results? (2)

  17. Monte Carlo seems to work properly, but FORM gives an error. • This message means that complex numbers are found by the z-function. • Solution: check whether your z-function probably in an unfavorable combination of stochastic variable values could lead to complex numbers… • Please note: if so, although Monte Carlo still gives a result, this is not reliable.

  18. Full OpenEarthTools repository • A wide variety of tools • Including the tools relevant for this assignment • Matlab and other languages • Useful for MSc thesis project • Useful for your future job Requirements: • Username and password: register at http://oss.deltares.nl • Subversion client (e.g. TortoiseSVN) • About 1Gb disk space

  19. Delft3D

  20. JarKus transects

  21. OpenEarth.nl

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