Presentation Transcript

1. Southern Maryland Association of REALTORS® Charles County IssuesSurvey American Strategies Incorporated and Myers Research | Strategic Services, LLC designed and administered this telephone survey conducted by professional interviewers. The survey reached 400 adults, 18 years or older, who are registered to vote in Charles County. The survey was conducted March 15-18, 2012. The margin of error associated with these data at a 95 percent confidence level is +/- 4.9 percent. The margin of error for subgroups is higher and varies.
2. Executive Summary Growth and development issues are top of mind. The problems associated with population growth – overdevelopment, transportation, construction, education – dominate the list of issues voters want their elected officials to do something about. Traffic the overwhelming concern. Nearly everyone expresses at least some concern over traffic and congestion. A solid majority (57 percent) are very concerned, underscoring the intensity associated with this issue. Residents conflicted between controls on growth and protecting private property rights. There is general agreement on the need for some controls on development (89 percent agree), and two-thirds of voters say home construction should be limited in outlying areas and encouraged in already developed areas. But at the same time most voters place a high priority on protecting private property rights and reject the idea that businesses and homes should be build closer together. Majority still call themselves “pro-growth” but “no-growth” not far behind. While most (51 percent) in the County still identify themselves as “pro-growth,” the problems of traffic congestion and other concerns resulting from overdevelopment leave four-in-ten voters identifying themselves as “no-growth.” Slide 2
3. Executive Summary Most are open to idea of County buying development rights. On the surface, most (61 percent) have no problem with the idea of the Charles County government buying development rights from rural landowners. Just 32 percent are opposed. When pushed, voters prefer free market solutions. When forced to choose, a majority (54 percent) prefer to rely on free market solutions to preserve rural land. But 44 percent say buying development rights is a legitimate role for county government. In the end, neither approach is seen as a particularly effective way to preserve land. Neither the county purchase of development rights nor having developers put land into preservation is seen as very effective. Voters believe either approach might be somewhat or a little effective, but they judge each approach identically in terms of likely outcome. No debate on who should pay: Developers. Support for a county-paid offset plan collapses if voters are told that their taxes would increase or if county services would have to be cut. The only viable solution for voters is to have developers pay for the cost of the program. Slide 3
4. Mood and Environment Slide 4
5. Voters Mostly Positive About Direction of Charles County Registered Democrats Significantly More Upbeat than Registered Republicans Overall Q.4 Generally speaking, do you think that things in Charles County are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track? Slide 5
6. Traffic and Development Issues Top the List of Concerns for Charles County Voters Registered Democrats Most Likely to Say Traffic, Older Women Most Likely to Say Development Most likely to say Traffic/Transportation: Registered Democrats (30%) African Americans (29%) Waldorf County Voters (29%) Most likely to say Growth/Development: Older Women (36%) Whites (31%) Q.5 And what would you say is the biggest issue facing Charles County that local elected officials should focus on? Slide 6
7. Words Used to Describe Issue of Greatest Concern In word cloud, the larger the word the more frequently it was mentioned. Q.5 And what would you say is the biggest issue facing Charles County that local elected officials should focus on? Slide 7
8. A Majority of Voters Are Very Concerned About Traffic and Congestion 85% of Voters at Least Somewhat Concerned 6% Not at all concerned 9% Not too concerned 28% Somewhat concerned 57% Very concerned 85% Total Concerned Q.33 Thinking specifically about traffic and congestion in your area, how much of a concern is it to you - would you say you are very concerned, somewhat concerned, not too concerned or not at all concerned about the issue of traffic and congestion in your area? Slide 8
9. Electorate Largely Divided Over Which Traffic and Transportation Initiative Should Take Priority Plurality of Voters Support Improving Transit Systems Over Expanding and Maintaining Roads, Highways, and Bridges 1% (Don’t Know/Refused) Q.34 Still thinking about traffic and transportation, which ONE of the following should be the top priority for the Charles County government? Building and expanding new roads, highways, and bridges. Maintaining and repairing existing roads, highways, freeways, and bridges. Expanding and improving bus, rail, and other mass transit. 25% Building new roads 40% Expanding mass transit 34% Maintaining roads Slide 9
10. Strong Plurality of Voters Support Reducing Traffic by Completing Waldorf Route 301 Bypass Voters also supportive of starting construction on a new rail system Most likely to say finishing the 301 Bypass: Waldorf region voters (51%) South region voters (50%) 50 and over (50%) 6% DK/Ref 33% Start new rail system 46% Finish 301 Bypass Most likely to say starting construction on a new rail system: La Plata region voters (38%) Registered Democrats (37%) 15% Finish Cross County Connector Q.35 Thinking ahead five years, which ONE of the following specific proposals is the best solution to reducing traffic in your area: Finishing the Waldorf Route 301 Bypass. Finishing the Cross County Connector. Starting construction on a new mass transit rail system. Slide 10
11. Voters Slightly More Likely to View County Taxes as “About Right” When Compared to State Taxes Maryland Tax Rates Charles County Tax Rates Q.6/7 Thinking about taxes and the services you receive from your state government/the Charles County government, would you say the taxes and fees you pay in Maryland/to the county are too high, too low, or about right? Slide 11
12. Few Voters Think Charles County Tax Burden is Higher than Other Counties 19% DK/Ref 32% Lower 27% About the same 22% Higher Q.8 And compared to other counties in Maryland, would you say that property taxes in Charles County are higher, lower or about the same? Slide 12
13. Traffic Dominates List of Concerns; Property Rights Important, But Many Worry about Protecting Open Space and Farms % Interest 10 50 37 25 22 20 28 25 13 Q.9 Now I would like to read a list of issues facing Charles County as a result of population growth and development. Using a scale of 1 to 10, where a 1 means that issue does not concern you at all at this time, and 10 means that issue concerns you the most at this time, please rate each of the following. Slide 13
14. Concern Over Open Space and Farmland Higher Among Whites and Those Who Initially Favor Development Rights Proposal Slide 14
15. Growth and Development / Mitigation Proposal Slide 15
16. Voters Agree on Need for Controls on Development, But Conflicted on What that Means in Practice Q.17-20 Still thinking about growth and development in Charles County, many people have different opinions on this subject. I am going to read you some statements about growth and development and after I read each one, please tell me whether you agree or disagree with the statement. Slide 16
17. Significant Gender and Race Gaps in Support for Pro-Growth Land Use and Development Policies Men and African Americans Most Supportive of Pro-Growth Policies Q.21 And do you consider yourself to be more PRO-growth or NO-growth on land use and development issues? Slide 17
18. 6-in-10 Initially Favor County Directly Buying Development Rights But Just A Third of Voters Strongly Favor Proposal Q.22 Still thinking about the issue of growth and development, as you may know the Charles County Commission is considering a proposal to allow the Charles County government to buy development rights from rural land-owners in order to preserve the land for agricultural use or open space. Just based on what you know, do you favor or oppose this proposal to allow the Charles County government to buy development rights from rural land-owners in order to preserve rural land? Slide 18
19. Older Men, Registered Democrats, and College-Educated Voters Most Supportive of the Proposal Q.22 …Just based on what you know, do you favor or oppose this proposal to allow the Charles County government to buy development rights from rural land-owners in order to preserve rural land? Slide 19
20. When Arguments Are Played Out, Majority Favor Free Market Approach to Land Preservation Dramatic Swing Reveals High Volatility in Electorate 25% of voters overall favor proposal BUT take free market view Q.23 Tell me whether the first statement or the second statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. We need to find ways to protect rural land, the quality of life and our rural heritage in Charles County. Buying development rights is a legitimate role for the county government. Protecting rural land is important, but we need policies that rely on the free market to preserve land. County government should not use taxpayer dollars to buy development rights. Slide 20
21. Dramatic Shift Towards Free Market Approach Largely Reflected Across Countywide Electorate Registered Democrats, Older Women Most Volatile Voting Blocs % Shift from Proposal Position Slide 21
22. When Tested on Their Own, Neither Approach to Preserving Rural Land is Viewed as Particularly Effective Q.24 Now I going to read you a couple of approaches for preserving land in rural Charles County. Please tell me whether you think each approach would be very effective, somewhat effective, a little effective, or not at all effective in preserving rural land. Have real estate developers offset the impact of their development in urban and suburban parts of the County by paying for the cost of putting rural lands into preservation. Have County government directly pay for the cost of putting rural lands into preservation Slide 22
23. But When Asked to Choose, Voters Prefer Developer Approach by a Near-2-1 Ratio Low Intensity Scores Suggest Much of Electorate Remains Undecided Q.26 …Which ONE of these two approaches do you prefer for preserving rural land in Charles County? Have real estate developers offset the impact of their development in urban and suburban parts of the County by paying for the cost of putting rural lands into preservation. Have the County government directly pay for the cost of putting rural lands into preservation. Slide 23
24. After Given Information on Cost of Proposal, Voters Significantly Less Supportive of It Three Quarters of Voters Less Likely to Support Proposal Q.27 Let me tell you a little more about the proposal we've been talking about. The proposal to buy development rights and preserve rural land in Charles County would cost approximately 4.6 million dollars each year for the next twenty years. The money for the program is not in the current County budget and would have to come from cuts in other programs, an increase in property taxes or from new fees on individuals or businesses. Does that make you more or less likely to support the proposal to allow Charles County to buy development rights in order to preserve land in rural Charles County? 4% (No Difference) 4% (Not sure/Don’t know/Refused) 11% Somewhat More Likely 20% Somewhat Less Likely 52% Much Less Likely Slide 24
25. Fees on Developers Only Palatable Revenue Source Q.28-32 I am going to read you some specific recommendations for how to pay for this proposal. Regardless of how you feel about the overall proposal, please tell me whether you favor or oppose each of the following as a way to pay for it. Slide 25