At a Crossroads of Security Cooperation

1. At a Crossroads of Security Cooperation John A. (Jay) Cope, Colonel, USA (ret.) Senior Research Fellow, INSS 10 March 2005 “Strategic Opportunities” Panel 1: Today’s Strategic Environment in the Americas The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the National Defense University, the Department of Defense or the U.S. government.

2. A Shared Challenge “The most important failure was one of imagination.” Report of the 9/11 Commission • Example: “Ultimately, the foundation of American strength is at home.” • National Security Strategy (2002) • But has the globalized environment changed the concept of “home”? • Does the foundation of national strength reach beyond borders? • Should national defense begin beyond legal frontiers? • Are government institutions, decision-making processes and mindsets ready to address the reality of interdependence and its trade offs?

3. The old paradigms no longer apply.

4. US Engagement at Today’s Critical Point Diplomatic “Hub and Spoke” Zones of Special Concern

5. Conditions at Today’s Crossroads • Progressive trends: • Shared democratic values but different political cultures • Economic growth and regionalism • Tied to world economy, foreign investment, Chinese demand • Remittances and free trade agreements • Sub-regional economic integration (political too?) • Transportation infrastructure modernization and expansion • No serious antagonism between countries but history and “zero-sum” mindset still hinder relations • Colombian model for reestablishing state sovereignty • National commitment; military reform; interagency planning; work with neighbors

6. Conditions at Today’s Crossroads • Regressive trends: • Declining faith in democracy in many countries • Weak national institutions for domestic politics, development, personal security, and justice • Politicized segments of societies • Shifts to the Left; rise of populism as way out of poverty • Demographics complicate • Inability of state to control all national territory • Anti-Americanism; competition for influence in region • Decreasing US government presence, available resources, and influence

7. Multidimensional Security Challenges • Environmental issues • Public security • “Coup of the streets” • Lawless non-state actors: • Violent armed groups (from youth gangs to insurgents) • Transnational crime (drugs, arms, other) • Poorly or ungoverned national territory • International and domestic terrorism • Traditional pressures: • Boundary disputes • Balancing power

8. Pre WWII: Two vast oceans; strong navy Friendly Canada, Mexico Region without military rival Monroe Doctrine Pre 9/11 – add: Nuclear deterrent Aerospace defense with Canada (NORAD) 1947 Rio Treaty Geo-strategic principle Ability to act globally without resource/prestige drain enhanced by a stable region, at peace (democratic), and prosperous Post 9/11 – add: Proactive defense in depth in all dimensions Forward regions of world and global commons of space and cyberspace Geographic approaches to US territory Within US Plus an expanded NORAD? Future missile defense system? Geo-strategic principle? Protecting U.S. from Attack

9. Lingering Questions • Geo-strategic Principle • Do Latin American states and Canada share US belief that the ability to act globally is enhanced by a stable, peaceful, democratic and prosperous hemisphere? • Will they assume leadership roles in working toward this goal? • Defending the Southern Approach to the US • This quadrant is at risk and close to home • Is there a more effective way to defend this approach in today’s threat and resource constrained environment?

10. Indicators of Strategic Change • Use of military in Latin engagement • Four countries joined Iraq coalition: El Salvador remains • Response to crisis in Bolivia and Haiti • UN peacekeeping (integrated units); OAS demining • Chilean, Argentine and Canadian military and/or police programs of assistance in region • Regional integration (SICA, CARICOM, MERCOSUR) • Defense and security cooperation (RSS and CFAC) • Amazon surveillance system (SIVAM) • Linkage with neighbors (confidence building) • PANAMAX series of multinational exercises

11. Significance of Indicators • Recognition that political and economic health of the hemisphere cannot be dictated from Washington • Some states share interest in realizing regional stability, democratic values and prosperity • Community response to regional crisis is possible • Strategic interests are shared with US (e.g., Panama Canal) • Niche military roles and interoperability are possible

12. Southern Approach to US • States in Caribbean Basin face all threats in the hemisphere in one place at one time • Problems interconnect • Thriving smuggling networks • Example: 300 - 330 metric tons of cocaine enter US annually • Disconnect on perception of main threat • Circumscribed cooperation • Mexico; “Third Border Initiative” • Decreasing US assets available • No geo-strategic vision

13. SOUTH Suspect Maritime and Air Activity1 January –31 December 2004 Maritime Air Pacific 111 Tracks Caribbean 295 Tracks Total 109 Tracks

14. Control over Transit Early 21st Century Mahan, Early 20th Century Cocaine Cocaine Control of Sea/Commerce Jamaica Key Defend Homeland Mexico Key

15. Strategic “Covering Force Area” • Holistic, comprehensive regional approach • Premise: cooperation among LAC nations • Mexico: hub; mesh with Central America, RSS/ CARICOM, US (NORAD) • Focus: transnat’l crime; air and maritime surveillance and response (JIATF-South, “Enduring Friendship”) • One Unified Command supports approach

16. Notional Future Regional Cooperation·Air/Sea Surveillance and Response· Disaster Assistance· Expeditionary Capability SIVAM + Mexico-Caribbean Basin Surveillance System NORAD

17. And Finally, Reminder: “The most important failure was one of imagination.” copej@ndu.edu; 202-685-2373 www.ndu.edu/inss/insshp.html