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Ph.D. Completion and Attrition Analysis 1992-2001: Trends in Graduation and Dropout Rates

This analysis provides comprehensive data on Ph.D. completion and attrition rates from 1992 to 2001, examining trends by institution type, cohort size, and field of study. The report includes detailed statistics on cumulative completion and attrition rates, highlighting factors influencing early attrition within the first four years of doctoral programs. It also compares completion rates across institution types and cohort sizes, shedding light on patterns in different disciplines.

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Ph.D. Completion and Attrition Analysis 1992-2001: Trends in Graduation and Dropout Rates

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  1. Ph.D. Completion and Attrition CGS Board of Directors December 4, 2007

  2. Analysis - Sample Results • Completion • 10-. 7-, and 4-year • By institution type (public vs. private) • By cohort size • Attrition • 10-. 7-, and 4-year • By institution type (public vs. private) • By cohort size • Early attrition • Continuing students

  3. Cohort Definitions for Baseline Data Analysis • A-Cohorts(10-year cohorts) • Students enrolling in 1992-93; 1993-94; 1994-95 • 12,135 students (313 programs) • B-Cohorts (7-year cohorts) • Students enrolling in 1995-96; 1996-97; 1997-98 • 11,697 students (320 programs) • C-Cohorts(4-year cohorts) • Students enrolling in 1998-99; 1999-2000; 2000-01 • 12,125 students (323 programs)

  4. 60 56.6 54.6 50.9 45.5 40 36.1 Cumulative Completion Rate 22.5 20 10.5 4.5 0 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Source: Council of Graduate Schools Completion and Attrition Program Data Average Overall Ten-Year Completion Rates for Students Entering Doctoral Programs from 1992-93 through 1994-95

  5. 30.6 30.2 29.5 30 28.4 27 25.4 23.6 19.9 20 Cumulative Attrition Rate 13.8 10 6.6 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Source: Council of Graduate Schools Completion and Attrition Program Data Ten-Year Attrition Rates for StudentsEntering from 1992-93 through 1994-95

  6. 70 60 50 40 Cumulative Completion Rate 30 20 10 0 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Year Engineering Life Sciences Mathematics & Physical Sciences Social Sciences Humanities Source: Council of Graduate Schools Completion and Attrition Program Data Ten-Year Completion Rates for Students Entering from 1992-93 through 1994-95, by Broad Field 63.6 56.8 62.9 55.9 53.7 54.7 48.2 49.3 40.9 29.3

  7. 40 35 30 25 Cumulative Attrition Rate 20 15 10 5 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Year Engineering Life Sciences Mathematics & Physical Sciences Social Sciences Humanities NOTE: 10-Year Attrition Rates include all cohorts entering 1992-93 through 1994-95 Source: Council of Graduate Schools Completion and Attrition Program Data Ten-year Attrition Rates for Students Enteringfrom 1992-93 through 1994-95, by Broad Field

  8. 70 60 50 40 Cumulative Completion Rate 30 20 10 0 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 year Chemistry Computer and Information Sciences Mathematics Physics and Astronomy Source: Council of Graduate Schools Completion and Attrition Program Data Ten-Year Completion Rates for Mathematics & Physical Science Students Entering from 1992-93 through 1994-95

  9. 50 45 40 35 30 Cumulative Attrition Rate 25 20 15 10 5 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Year Chemistry Computer and Information Sciences Mathematics Physics and Astronomy NOTE: 10-Year Attrition Rates include all cohorts entering 1992-93 through 1994-95 Source: Council of Graduate Schools Completion and Attrition Program Data Ten-Year Attrition Rates for Students Entering Mathematics & Physical Sciences Disciplines from 1992-93 through 1994-95

  10. 60 50 40 30 Cumulative Completion Rate 20 10 0 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Year Private Public Source: Council of Graduate Schools Completion and Attrition Program Data Ten-Year Completion Rates by Institution Type for Students Entering from 1992-93 through 1994-95

  11. 60 50 40 30 Cumulative Completion Rate 20 10 0 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Year Small Medium Large Source: Council of Graduate Schools Completion and Attrition Program Data Ten-Year Completion Rates by Cohort Size for Students Entering from 1992-93 through 1994-95 Small: 1-7 Medium: 8-14 Large: 15+

  12. Comparison of Seven-Year Completion Ratesbetween A- and B- Cohorts, by Broad Field Mathematics & Physical Sciences

  13. Early Attrition(Years 1-4) • Components of Early Attrition • Without a master’s • With master’s, without candidacy • With master’s, with candidacy • Transfer

  14. 8 6 Percent Attrition 4 2 0 A B C A B C A B C A B C Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 No Master's Master's, No Candidacy Master's, With Candidacy Transferred Source: Council of Graduate Schools Completion and Attrition Program Data NOTE: A-cohorts include all cohorts entering 1992-93 through 1994-95 B-cohorts include all cohorts entering 1995-96 through 1997-98 C-cohorts include all cohorts entering 1998-99 through 2000-01 Components of Early Attrition (Years 1-4)

  15. 23.6 24.2 20.2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 Attrition Rate A B C NOTE: A-cohorts include all students entering 1992-93 through 1994-95 B-cohorts include all students entering 1995-96 through 1997-98 C-cohorts include all cohorts entering 1998-99 through 2000-01 Source: Council of Graduate Schools Completion and Attrition Program Data Early Attrition (Years 1-4) Ratesfor A-, B- and C-Cohorts

  16. 65.9 10.5 23.6 A 67.5 8.3 24.2 B 72.7 7.1 20.2 C 0 20 40 60 80 100 Rates Continuing Completion Attrition Source: Council of Graduate Schools Completion and Attrition Program Data Four-Year Continuing, Completion, and Attrition Rates for A-, B- and C-Cohorts

  17. 63.8 13.4 22.8 1992-93 67.5 9.0 23.5 1993-94 66.5 8.8 24.6 1994-95 67.3 8.2 24.4 1995-96 66.6 8.1 25.2 1996-97 68.5 8.6 22.9 1997-98 70.1 8.1 21.9 1998-99 73.0 6.8 20.2 1999-2000 75.0 6.5 18.5 2000-01 0 20 40 60 80 100 Rates Continuing Completion Attrition Source: Council of Graduate Schools Completion and Attrition Program Data Four-Year Continuing, Completion, and Attrition Rates by Cohort Year

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