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CCS and Climate

CCS and Climate. Do We Need CCS?. Climate protection is impossible with current emission trends. Global coal investments will lock in high cumulative carbon emissions. “Clean” energy investments are a fraction of likely needs. CCS and biomass as an emergency brake.

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CCS and Climate

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  1. CCS and Climate

  2. Do We Need CCS? • Climate protection is impossible with current emission trends. • Global coal investments will lock in high cumulative carbon emissions. • “Clean” energy investments are a fraction of likely needs. • CCS and biomass as an emergency brake.

  3. U.S. & China Total 43% Of Global Cumulative Emissions 2005-2030 China 25% 225 Rest of World 57% 512 167 U.S. 18% Billion Tonnes CO2 Source: IEA, WEO 2007

  4. Power generation Other 4 000 TE Other OECD 3 500 EU27 3 000 Japan US 2 500 Other DC Mtoe 2 000 India China 1 500 1 000 500 0 2005 2030 2005 2030 Reference Scenario:Primary Coal Demand by Region China & India account for 78% of the growth of coal use in power generation and 91% of the growth in other sectors

  5. Global New Coal Build 1041 684 Source: IEA, WEO 2006 Incremental new coal capacity

  6. New Coal Plant Emissions 26% Greater than All Historic Coal CO2 34% of remaining budget for 450 ppm Source: ORNL, CDIAC; IEA, and WEO 2006

  7. Power plants built in 2005-2015 Reference Scenario:CO2 Emissions from Coal-Fired Power Stations built prior to 2015 in China & India 6 000 5 000 4 000 3 000 million tonnes of CO2 2 000 1 000 0 2006 2015 2030 2045 2060 2075 Existing power plants Capacity additions in the next decade will lock-in technology & largely determine emissions through 2050 & beyond

  8. Reference Scenario:Power Generation Capacity Additions in China, 2006-2030 6% 70% 15% Coal Oil 2% Gas 1 312 GW Nuclear 7% Hydro 0.2% Rest of renewables Most of the increase in coal demand comes from power generation

  9. NRDC White Paper • NRDC White Paper—compendium of work by Chinese Academy of Sciences, US Pacific Northwest National Lab,Tsinghua and Princeton Universities, and WRI. • Available at https://www.nrdc.org/ international/chinaccs/default.asp

  10. Chinese Sources & Sinks Over 1600 large CO2 point sources CO2 emissions of 3.9Gt/ year

  11. Power Sector Dominates

  12. But Many Large Industrial Sources • Nearly 400 high concentration sources • Nearly 200 million tons CO2 production • 43 Coal to Methanol • 12 Ammonia • 2 Coal to liquid transport fuel • Capture costs much lower for these sources

  13. Sinks Near Large Sources

  14. Sinks Near Large Sources • > half of the 1600 large sources directly above potential storage formations • 80% within 80km of sites • Reduces transport costs. Perhaps $10/tonne of CO2.

  15. Potential CCS Pilots • Daqing and Jiling oil fields • Jiangyou gas fields • GreenGen IGCC • Langfang IGCC • Donggaun Taiyangzhou IGCC • Shenua Direct Coal Liquefaction

  16. Needs/Recommendations • CCS regulatory framework • Direct western involvement in Chinese CCS demos • Tech transfer and joint R&D • Monitoring and verification • Incentives for CCS as part of low-carbon portfolio

  17. Carbon “Game” has Different Rules Unlike economic growth, the carbon budget cannot be expanded indefinitely. Emitting more carbon than your neighbor is not a recipe for success. China and U.S. have mutual strategic interest in helping each other to minimize carbon emissions. Success by one country helps all countries.

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