Climate Change and Habitat Plans: Federal policy and funding

1. Climate Change and Habitat Plans:Federal policy and funding Mark Kramer, The Nature Conservancy 11/18/09

2. Federal climate policy fundamentals • Emission reduction • Cap and Trade • Energy Efficiency • Unregulated sectors • Sequestration • Forest carbon • Other • Adaptation • Human systems • Natural systems

3. To what are we adapting? Current Temperature and Observed Ecosystem Impacts At theCurrent 0.7°C(1.3°F, 385 ppmv CO2e), Impacts Are Measurable, Significant and Comprehensive • Glacier and Polar Ice Cap Loss • Sea Level Rise • Species Movement • Increase in Growing Season Length • Increased Frequency and Magnitude of Extreme Events (Drought and Storms)

4. 2008 2007 2006 2005 To what are we adapting?: Trajectory of Global CO2 Emissions IPCC SRES growth rates in % per year for 2000-2010: A1B: 2.42 A1FI: 2.71 A1T: 1.63 A2:  2.13 B1: 1.79 B2: 1.61 Actual: 0.9% from 1900-2000 Observed: 3.5% from 2000-2007 Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS; Updated with data from CDIAC

5. At 3°C (5.4°F, 550 ppmv CO2e) • Several Meters of Sea Level Rise • Widespread Coral Mortality • 50% of Permafrost Thaws To what are we adapting?: Temperature Thresholds and Projected Ecosystem Impacts At 2°C (3.6°F, 450 ppmv CO2e) • Retreat of Greenland and Antarctic Ice • Increased Damage from Floods and Storms • Most Corals Bleached At 4°C(7.2°F, 650 ppmv CO2e) • Mid-Latitude Glaciers Disappear • Major Extinctions Around the Globe • Terrestrial Biosphere Becomes Net Carbon Source IPCC. 2007. Working Group II: Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation

6. 20th Century Observations 20th Century Observations 2070-2099 B1 Scenario Projections , 2°C 2070-2099 B1 Scenario Projections, 2°C 2070-2099 A2 Scenario Projections , 3°C Monterey San Francisco Sacramento Sacramento Los Angeles Los Angeles San Diego San Diego Bakersfield Bakersfield Summer High Temperature Summer High Temperature To what are we adapting? 20th Century Observations San Francisco Sacramento Los Angeles San Diego Bakersfield Summer High Temperature

7. Adaptation Low Uncertainty High Low Med High Unprece- dented Stress Climate Stress Index 2°C Heat stress 2°C emissions scenario Drought stress 2°C emissions scenario 3°C Drought stress 3°C emissions scenario Heat stress 3°C emissions scenario

8. northward upslope Conservation planning more complicated – shifts, sources, sinks and connections 2°C 3°C Current Region Current climate space of protected area Protected area with current climate space, source at 2°C and 3°C Protected area climate space at 2°C, Sink at 2°C Protected area climate space at 3°C Sink at 3°C Connectivity Fragmentation

9. Mount Hamilton Mount Hamilton Project BIODIVERSITY SECURITY IN CALIFORNIA Drought Stress Index Medium Change, Low Uncertainty Heat Stress Index High Change, Low Uncertainty

10. Ahead of the Curve:Role of NCCPs on ground • NCCPs Protect: • Core habitat areas • Corridors • Buffers

11. Federal Legislation: State of Play • House has passed Waxman-Markey bill • Adaptation section drafted by • House Natural Resources Committee • “Discharged” by EPW committee • S. 1733 Kerry/ Boxer bill • “Clean Energy, Jobs and American Power” Act • Recently introduced: • S. 1933 Bingaman/Baucus/Whitehouse/Udall • “Natural Resources Climate Adaptation Act”

12. Beyond the False Dichotomy:Nature and People • Resilient natural resources provide us with the food, clean water, shelter and income we all rely upon for survival.

13. Why do we care?:“Ecosystem Services” • In general.—The term “ecosystem services” means the provision, by a healthy ecosystem, of natural resources to improve human health and livelihood.

14. Out of the mouths of Senators: • Inclusions.—The term “ecosystem services” includes— • (i) a clean and abundant water supply; • (ii) carbon storage; • (iii) biodiversity; • (iv) pollination services; • (v) wildlife habitat; • (vi) recreation; and • (vii) a scenic or historic landscape.

15. What do we do?:Natural Resources Adaptation • Natural resources.—The term “natural resources” means land, wildlife, fish, air, water, estuaries, plants, habitats, and ecosystems. • Natural resources adaptation.—The term “natural resources adaptation” means the protection, restoration, and conservation of natural resources so that natural resources become more resilient, adapt to, and withstand the ongoing and expected impacts of climate change.

16. Adaptation Provisions in Federal legislation • Planning • Federal • State • Funding • Domestic • States • Federal agencies • International

17. CEQ advises on: • Nat’l Resources Climate Change Adaptation Strategy • Fed. agency plans The President Provides data and science to inform • Natural Resources Climate Change Adaptation Panel • Established no later than 90 days after enactment • Chair – Chair of CEQ • Members (heads of the following:) • NOAA, USFS, NPS, USFWS, BLM, USGS, BOR, BIA, EPA, Army Corps and FEMA Develops (in coordination with Panel) • Natural Resources Climate Change Adaptation Strategy • No later than one year after enactment. • An overarching national strategy “to protect, restore, and conserve natural resources to enable them to become more resilient, adapt to, and withstand impacts of climate change and ocean acidification. • Federal agency and state plans must be consistent with national strategy. • Reviewed and updated every 5 years. Approves Agencies develop Federal Agency Adaptation Plans No later than one year after National Adaptation Strategy Natural Resource Climate Change Adaptation Science and Information No later than 90 days after enactment Sec. of Commerce (through NOAA) National Climate Service Secretary of Interior (through USGS) National Global Warming and Wildlife Science Center Coordination Advise Appoint Approves Appoint Consistency • Science Advisory Board • Established no later than 180 days after enactment • 10-20 expert members State Natural Resources Adaptation Plans *No later than one year after National Adaptation Strategy *Required to get funding under this act.

18. Role of HCPs/NCCPs in legislation:Planning • (e) Coordination With Other Plans.—The State plan shall, if appropriate, integrate the goals and measures set forth in other natural resources conservation strategies established pursuant to applicable law (including regulations), including— • (7) recovery plans for threatened species and endangered species under section 4(f) of the Endangered Species Act of 1973 (16 U.S.C. 1533(f)); • (8) habitat conservation plans under section 10 of that Act (16 U.S.C. 1539)

19. Role of HCPs/NCCPs in legislation:Funding • Domestic Natural System Adaptation to receive 1% of auction proceeds, ramping up to 4% in late 2020s • Section 6 competes with at least 12 other programs for 5% of that • Roughly $25M, ramping up to $200M • Also, NCCPs could compete for a share of CA’s allocation for implementing state plan

20. Funding: Dedicated and Additive • All amounts deposited into the Fund shall be available without further appropriation or fiscal year limitation. • Deposits in the Land and Water Conservation Fund under this clause shall be supplemental to funds provided under section 3 of the Land and Water Conservation Fund Act of 1965 (16 U.S.C. 460l–6), which shall remain available for non-adaptation needs;

21. Local Governments: On the front lines • Policy is necessarily global • We share one atmosphere • Action is often local • We live on the ground