Decision Support Summary 27 June 2003

1. Decision Support Summary27 June 2003

2. Agenda • List of Papers • Key Results- Presentations and Discussion • Issues and Future Actions

3. Papers • Trajectory Prediction • Common Trajectory Prediction Capability for Decision Support Tools (Swierstra, Green) • Aircraft Performance Modeling for Air Traffic Management Applications (Suchkov, Swierstra, Nuic) • Improving Trajectory Forecasting Through Adaptive Filtering Techniques (Mondoloni, Liang) • ATM Capabilities • Human-in-the-Loop Evaluation of a Multi-Strategy Traffic Management Decision Support Capability (Wanke, Taber, Miller, Ball, Fellman) • Free-Flight Program Update (Post, Knorr)

4. Papers • ATM Capabilities (Continued) • Initial Evaluation of URET Enhancements to Support TFM Flow Initiatives, Severe Weather Avoidance, and CPDLC (Kirk, Bolczak) • Route Selection Decision Support in Convective Weather: A Case Study of the Effects of Weather and Operational Assumptions on Departure Throughput (DeLaura, Allan) • Presenting Uncertainty to Controllers and Pilots (Nicholls, Battino, Marti, Pozzi)

5. Papers • Conflict Detection/Resolution • Lateral Conflict Resolution in the Medium-Term- Achieving a Required Probability of Conflict (Irvine) • Investigating Fundamental Issues in Lateral Conformance Monitoring Using a Fault Detection Approach ( Reynolds, Hansman, Hong Li) • ATM Infrastructure • The Big Iron (Williams, Mondoloni, Liang, Bradford, Jehlen) • Air Traffic Control Command Monitoring System Based on Information Integration (Zhengping Ma, Deguang Cui, Peng Cheng)

6. Session Chairs;Thank You! • Hartmut Fricke • Kevin Corker • Steve Green • Colin Meckiff • Andy Price

7. Observation • Decision support track generally: • Did not emphasize long-term, future concepts in decision support tools • Did emphasize near to mid-term (needed) evolutionary concepts and capabilities

8. Results • Trajectory Prediction Uncertainty: What is it? How to reduce? How to live with it in decision support tools? • Quality and standardization of input data remains a key issue in improving accuracy of predictions for decision support tools (DSTs) and simulations , e.g.: • Controller intent • Pilot intent • Take-off weight • Aircraft performance data (intellectual property and liability issues are significant vis-a vis access)

9. Results • Trajectory Prediction: some solutions proposed to address uncertainty • “Closed loop solutions” implemented as active advisories to reduce intent errors • “Common trajectory prediction services” for multiple DSTs and domains • Application of Kalman Filter approach to dealing with wind error in cruise phase of flight • Need for coordinated research to set future direction reinforced

10. Results • Automation Capability/Weather Information Integration to help human decision makers deal with weather situations • Concepts presented for utilization of current and forecast weather information in decision support tools: • Better enable controllers to assist pilots with weather avoidance • Deal with weather-related traffic flow situations • Enhance departure management • Initial steps in getting away from “fair weather tools” • More generally, integration of individually-developed decision support capabilities to realize “end-to-end” solutions, e.g • Automated dissemination of TFM initiatives, conflict detection/resolution consideration those initiatives and other conflicts, data link delivery of resultant clearances)

11. Results • Decision making under uncertainty is a reality and will continue to be so; must develop ways to deal with it • Focus of most ATM research has been on reducing uncertainty at the data input level • Communication and expression of uncertainty (how, why and to whom) likely to be an increasingly important issue for all categories of service providers, users and pilots • Automation capabilities that support decision makers must also account for uncertainty (e.g. in weather forecasts, demand, capacity)

12. Results • Better Traffic Flow Management decision making likely will require simultaneous application of multiple strategies • Research has generally focused on single answer solutions (rerouting, ground delay, miles-in-trail) • Increased attention to looking at the cumulative impact of multiple, possible strategies • Need to ensure that individual domain-level solutions/capabilities (e.g. departure management, arrival management, en route integrated impact assessment) will integrate together in coherent concept

13. Results • Conflict Detection/Resolution • Framework proposed for quantifying conflict resolution operational acceptance based on intended use • Key conclusion: if trying to resolve conflicts out to 20 minutes, need to use a separation criteria (in excess of 5 miles) based on level of resolution performance is needed operationally • Framework proposed for investigating conformance monitoring by posing it as a Fault Detection problem; possible use in assessing alternative conformance monitoring approaches

14. Results (concluded) • ATM Infrastructure: what might the future look like? • Architecture concept postulated for implementing advanced autonomous aircraft concept of operations • Centralized data repository and security (SWIM) • Centralized decision support on ground • Cost-effective aircraft decision support capabilities • Strong dependence on data link

15. Issues/FutureSteps • Scope and content of future research direction on trajectory prediction • A trajectory prediction action plan as been proposed to the Eurocontrol/FAA R&D committee • Recommend that this initiative be used to agree upon and chart future, joint research • Recommended research areas for additional emphasis: • Decision making under uncertainty • Automation/weather integration • Farther-term ATM concepts for DSTs: do we have a research-gap issue?

16. Issues/FutureSteps • Concern: data link communications development status • Key element of virtually all, proposed future concepts • ATM researchers have key role to play in defining future services roadmap and in quantifying benefits to strengthen Business Case • As more information and capabilities become available to support user decision making, we need to be better able to : • Evaluate the effectiveness of solutions (are they really better?) • Define criteria by which to make decisions based on new info • Ensure we consider all players • e.g. need to define roles of AOC and pilots in TFM decisions explicitly discussed during our sessions